Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama came
awfully close to winning Missouri in 2008, but his chances of doing it again in
2008 don’t look very good. Our newest poll there finds him trailing Mitt Romney
by a 10 point margin, 52-42.
Missouri’s one state where Paul Ryan’s selection might really be helping the
GOP ticket. He has a 48/40 favorability rating there, better poll numbers than
Obama, Romney, or Joe Biden has in the state. Voters there even narrowly
support the Ryan Plan, 41/38, the first place where we’ve found that to be the
case since Romney announced his selection.
Romney’s substantial lead comes for 3 reasons. 1) He leads 49-43 with
independents. Republicans are more unified than Democrats. 2) 86% of GOP voters
are committed to Romney, while Obama has only 82% of Democrats behind him. And
3) The state’s moved to the right since 2008 and we find that the electorate is
likely to be much more Republican friendly this time around.
Romney has narrowly positive favorability numbers at 48/45. Obama is deeply
unpopular in the state with only 42% of voters approving of him to 55% who
disapprove.
Thing are looking better for Democrats in the Governor’s race. Jay Nixon
leads Republican challenger Dave Spence 46-37, numbers pretty similar to PPP’s
last poll in late May which found Nixon ahead 45-34. Nixon is one of the most
popular Governors in the country with 53% of voters approving of the job he’s
doing to 28% who disapprove. Most notably he breaks almost even with
Republicans at 38/39, and he’s at 54/25 with independents.
Nixon’s crossover appeal extends to the head to head numbers. He’s taking
19% of the Republican vote while losing only 8% of Democrats to Spence, and he
has a 13 point lead with independents. Spence still isn’t particularly well
known. 28% of voters have a favorable opinion of him, 28% have an unfavorable
one, and the largest group at 43% doesn’t have one either way.
PPP surveyed 500 likely Missouri voters on the
evening of August 20th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by
any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 If you were allowed to vote directly for Vice
President, would you choose Democrat Joe
Biden or Republican Paul Ryan?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 42%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jay
Nixon’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Spence?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q9 The candidates for Governor this fall are
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Dave
Spence. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 46%
Dave Spence ………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q10 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor this
fall are Democrat Susan Montee and
Republican Peter Kinder. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Susan Montee…………………………………………. 38%
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q11 The candidates for Attorney General this fall
are Democrat Chris Koster and Republican Ed
Martin. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Chris Koster ……………………………………………. 41%
Ed Martin ……………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q12 Proposition B would create the Health and
Education Trust Fund, which would use an
increase in taxes on cigarettes and other
tobacco products to fund programs and
services aimed at reducing and preventing
tobacco use. If the election was today, would
you vote yes or no on Proposition B?
Yes………………………………………………………… 47%
No …………………………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Roy
Blunt’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q14 Do you support or oppose Paul Ryan’s
proposal for reforming Medicare?
Support ………………………………………………….. 41%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 49%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
Other……………………………………………………… 26%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
