Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s final Missouri poll finds Claire McCaskill holding on to a narrow lead
over Todd Akin, 48-44. Libertarian Jonathan Dine is polling at 6%. Since our
last poll two weeks ago McCaskill’s gained 2 points, while Akin’s seen a 4
point increase in his support.
Akin’s image isn’t getting any better. He now has a 29% favorability rating
with 56% of voters rating him unfavorably, the worst numbers we’ve found for
him to date. Nevertheless Republicans are starting to unify around him a little
bit more as the election approaches- he’s gone from getting 74% of his party
vote on our last poll to now 79%. He’s also pulled even with independents at 46%,
although he’s still running 19 points behind Mitt Romney on that front.
“The big x factor in the Missouri Senate race is Jonathan Dine,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s pulling a lot of support from
people who would otherwise vote Republican. If they stick with him, then
McCaskill will win. But if they decide their desire for a GOP controlled Senate
outweighs their disgust with Akin, then Akin will have a chance to pull the
upset.”
The Senate race is definitely where the excitement is for Missouri on
Tuesday night. After being the closest state in the Presidential contest in
2008 it looks like it will be a blowout this year, with Mitt Romney leading
Barack Obama 53/45. Obama is very unpopular in the state with only 41% of voters
approving of him to 53% who disapprove. Romney has a 52/40 favorability rating.
Key to Romney’s advantage is a 57/38 lead among independents.
The race for Governor doesn’t look like it will be terribly competitive
either. Democratic incumbent Jay Nixon leads Republican challenger Dave Spence
53-45. The race has tightened in the closing stretch but Nixon is still taking
14% of Republicans while losing only 4% of Democrats, and he has a 53/42 lead
with independents. Nixon continues to be among the more popular Governors in
the country with a 51/31 approval spread.
PPP surveyed 835
likely voters on November 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Claire
McCaskill, Republican Todd Akin, and
Libertarian Jonathan Dine. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 48%
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 44%
Jonathan Dine…………………………………………. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Democrat Jay
Nixon and Republican Dave Spence. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 53%
Dave Spence ………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q4 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor this
fall are Democrat Susan Montee and
Republican Peter Kinder. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Susan Montee…………………………………………. 43%
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .50%
Not sure …………….. . 8%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jay
Nixon’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .51%
Disapprove…………. .31%
Not sure …………….. .18%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Spence?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 18%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 16%
