Raleigh, N.C.– PPP’s newest poll of the Missouri
Senate race finds Claire McCaskill expanding her lead to 6 points. She’s at 46%
to 40% for Todd Akin and 9% for Libertarian Jonathan Dine. On our last poll of
the race, in late August, McCaskill had led by only a single point.
Todd Akin’s image is not seeing any recovery even with six weeks having
passed since his controversial comments. 33% of voters see him favorably to 55%
with an unfavorable opinion. Those numbers are essentially unchanged from our
last poll when he was at 33/56.
One interesting development over the last month in this race is that Claire
McCaskill’s own popularity has actually improved. 44% of voters approve of her
and 49% disapprove, up from a 40/55 spread in late August. The reason for that
change is that Democrats are really rallying around her. She now has an 89/8
approval rating within her own party, up from a 73/23 standing last time.
Despite McCaskill’s lead there’s still reason to think this will be a
competitive race. By a 50/42 margin voters would rather Republicans had control
of the US Senate next year than the Democrats. Right now Akin’s only winning
78% of the vote among people who wanted a GOP controlled Senate, compared to
the 95% McCaskill’s getting with folks who want a Democratic controlled Senate.
Missouri doesn’t look like it will be terribly competitive in the
Presidential race this year. Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama 51-45 in the state.
That’s an improvement for Obama from deficits of 10 and 12 points in our last
two polls but still doesn’t suggest it will see the kind of close margin it did
in 2008.
“Claire McCaskill is increasingly
looking like the favorite in the Missouri Senate race,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s not over yet by any means given
the conservative turn of the state over the last four years.”
PPP surveyed 700
likely Missouri voters from October 1st to 3rd. The margin of error
for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any
campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .49%
Not sure …………….. . 7%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jonathan Dine?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q9 The candidates for Senate this fall are
Democrat Claire McCaskill, Republican Todd
Akin, and Libertarian Jonathan Dine. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 46%
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 40%
Jonathan Dine…………………………………………. 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q10 (Asked only to Dine supporters:) If you had to
choose between Democrat Claire McCaskill
and Republican Todd Akin, who would you vote
for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 19%
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q11 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the US Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 42%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 61%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 24%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 16%
Q13 Do you consider Claire McCaskill to be
‘ladylike,’ or not?
She is…………………………………………………….. 46%
She is not……………………………………………….. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q14 Do you think women can become pregnant
from being raped, or not?
They can………………………………………………… 93%
They cannot ……………………………………………. 4%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
