Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest poll of the Missouri Senate race finds that Todd Akin is weathering the storm and the contest remains a toss up. Claire McCaskill leads 45-44, just a small change from our poll last week which found Akin ahead by a 44-43 margin.
53% of voters say that they accept Akin’s apology for his comments last week to 40% who do not. For most Missourians Akin’s words weren’t a permanent deal breaker. Although Democrats are not ready to forgive him, 77% of Republicans say they accept his apology to only 18% who do not.
Only 37% of voters now say they think Akin should withdraw from the race to 54% who believe he should not. There’s a bipartisan consensus that he should stay in- 57% of independents, 53% of Democrats, and 52% of Republicans think he should continue running. There’s clearly a disconnect on Akin’s candidacy between GOP leaders in Washington DC and actual GOP voters back in Missouri.
Akin’s favorability numbers are still poor with 33% of voters rating him favorably to 56% with a negative opinion. But that’s up a net 11 points from our survey last Monday when it came down at 24/58. A lot of voters have already moved on from being disgusted with him over his comments.
One thing this whole episode hasn’t done is soften voters’ opinions of Claire McCaskill. Only 40% of voters approve of the job she’s doing to 55% who disapprove. Even though 32% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Akin, only 11% of them actually say that they’re going to vote for McCaskill.
Missouri continues to look like a tough sell for Barack Obama. We find him trailing Romney 53-41, little change from the 52-42 we found on our poll there this week.
“The Missouri Senate race continues to look like a toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Claire McCaskill’s unpopularity is balancing out the unhappiness voters feel with Todd Akin over his comments last week.”
PPP surveyed 621 likely Missouri voters on August 28th and 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 The candidates for Senate this fall are
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Todd Akin. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 45%
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 Do you think Todd Akin should withdraw from
the US Senate race, or not?
He should withdraw …………………………………. 37%
He should not………………………………………….. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Do you accept Todd Akin’s apology for the
comments he made last week, or not?
Accept his apology…………………………………… 53%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 49%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 12%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 18%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%