Polls

Midwestern States a Toss Up Tuesday; Clinton Still Strong in South

| Tom Jensen

New Public Policy Polling surveys of the 5 states that will vote on Tuesday find that the Democratic contests in Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio are all toss ups, while Hillary Clinton maintains a significant advantage in Florida and North Carolina. The surveys were conducted on behalf of the VoteVets Action Fund.

Clinton leads Bernie Sanders just 46/41 in Ohio and 48/45 in Illinois, while narrowly trailing Sanders in Missouri 47/46. Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri are all open primary states and Sanders is benefiting from significant support from independent voters and a small swath of Republicans planning to vote in each state, putting him in position to potentially pull an upset sweep of the region on Tuesday night:

State

Overall

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

OH

Clinton 46-41

Clinton 55-37

Sanders 53-20

Sanders 56-21

IL

Clinton 48-45

Clinton 59-37

Sanders 69-18

Sanders 62-23

MO

Sanders 47-46

Clinton 56-39

Sanders 62-23

Sanders 66-23

Clinton is better positioned in the Southern states voting on Tuesday. She leads 57/32 in Florida, and 56/37 in North Carolina. She benefits in Florida from it being a closed primary state- her lead with Democrats is comparable to what it is in the three Midwestern states voting on Tuesday but that’s the entire electorate in the Sunshine State, putting her in a strong position. In North Carolina, Clinton has already accrued a huge lead during early voting. Among those who have already cast their ballots she leads 68/29, and the race only gets closer overall because her advantage is a tighter 50/40 spread among those planning to vote on Election Day.

We also polled on a couple important issues of concern to veterans: privatizing health care services provided by the Department of Veterans Affairs, and decreasing our nation’s reliance on fossil fuels by embracing renewable energy sources.

Democratic primary voters in these states- including the independents planning to vote in the Democratic primary- are strongly opposed to privatizing health care services provided by the Department of Veterans Affairs. Anywhere from 67-71% of primary voters in each state oppose privatization, with only 17-25% of voters in support. What’s particularly noteworthy is that not only are Democrats overwhelmingly opposed to the concept, but it also has minimal support from the crucial independent voters planning to vote in the Democrats primary- just 17% to 27% support within that group for privatization:

State

Overall Privatization

With Dems

With Independents

FL

20% Support, 69% Opposed

20/69

N/A

IL

25% Support, 68% Opposed

25/68

23/67

MO

22% Support, 71% Opposed

22/72

22/70

NC

17% Support, 71% Opposed

18/71

17/75

OH

23% Support, 67% Opposed

21/72

27/50

This is an issue where voters are inclined to punish politicians who want to privatize health care services provided by the VA. At least 66% of primary voters in each state say they’d be less likely to vote for a candidate who wanted to privatize VA health care services, compared to only 16-25% of voters who say they’d be more likely to vote for a candidate who took that stance. Anywhere from 62-72% of the independents planning to vote in the primaries would be less likely to vote for a candidate who wanted to do that.

State

Overall Privatization Support Impact On Vote For Politician

With Dems

With Independents

FL

20% More Likely, 72% Less Likely

20/72

N/A

IL

25% More Likely, 66% Less Likely

25/65

22/68

MO

21% More Likely, 70% Less Likely

22/70

20/70

NC

16% More Likely, 73% Less Likely

16/73

15/72

OH

19% More Likely, 68% Less Likely

19/69

18/62

Finally we found overwhelming support from Democratic primary voters- Democrats and independents alike- for candidates who think the US needs to lessen its dependence on fossil fuels by embracing measures like solar, wind, and biofuels. At least 77% of Democratic primary voters overall in each state- and at least 74% of independents- say they’d be more likely to vote for candidates who saw the need for the country to embrace new energy sources and move away from fossil fuels. Only 13-14% of primary voters say they’d be less likely to vote for a candidate who wanted to do that.

State

Overall Lessen Dependence on Fossil Fuels

With Dems

With Independents

FL

79% More Likely, 13% Less Likely

79/13

N/A

IL

79% More Likely, 14% Less Likely

80/14

79/14

MO

81% More Likely, 13% Less Likely

84/11

75/16

NC

77% More Likely, 14% Less Likely

76/14

81/9

OH

80% More Likely, 13% Less Likely

82/12

74/16

Full results here

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