Raleigh, N.C. – Missouri voters expect another close presidential race in 2012. After John McCain took the Show-Me State by less than 4,000 votes in 2008, 42% of Missourians say their state will once again host a tight contest, and only 28% think it will not. Voters’ opinions are consistent with results from a PPP poll released Wednesday, which showed Obama leading Romney by one point in the state.
More Republicans (45%) think Missouri will be a swing state than Democrats (42%), despite the fact that Missouri has gone Republican in the last three presidential elections. 40% of independents think Missouri will be a swing state.
Missouri voters are warming up to the idea of marriage rights for gay couples. 64% of voters believe gay couples should either be allowed to marry or form civil unions, up from 60% in January.
President Obama’s nod of approval continues to influence black voters’ own opinions. African-American voters lead the spike in support for gay marriage after a complete turnaround from just four months ago. 50% of Missouri African Americans think gay marriage should be legal, twice their level of support in January. 81% of Missouri African Americans believe gay couples should either be allowed to marry or form civil unions, a 31-point upswing from the previous survey.
Tourist-friendly Branson is the most favorably viewed city in the state, with 64% seeing it favorably and only 11% unfavorably. Joplin, which was devastated last year by one of the deadliest tornadoes in American history, is essentially tied with Branson (60-7). St. Louis, the state’s second-largest city, was rated least favorably (42-31) among the seven cities polled. Between Branson/Joplin and St. Louis are Columbia (59-11); Springfield (58-12); the capital, Jefferson City (48-17); and Kansas City, the largest city (48-20).
Despite disapproval of the city of St. Louis, voters overwhelmingly support the reigning World Series Champion Cardinals. 60% of voters would root for the Cardinals if they played the Kansas City Royals. Just 28% would pull for the Royals.
PPP surveyed 602 Missouri voters from May 24th to 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you think Missouri will be a swing state in
the Presidential race this year, or not?
It will be a swing state………………………………. 42%
It will not…………………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q2 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 36%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..33%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………31%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of St. Louis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Kansas City?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Springfield?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Columbia?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Joplin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Jefferson City?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Branson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q11 Even if you may not normally root for either one
of them, if the Kansas City Royals and St.
Louis Cardinals played each other, who would
you root for?
Royals……………………………………………………. 28%
Cardinals………………………………………………… 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Albert Pujols?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tony LaRussa?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q14 Do you consider yourself to be a Southerner, or
not?
Consider yourself a Southerner …………………. 23%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
