Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s final poll of the Republican Senate primary in Missouri finds a close race with John Brunner leading the pack at 35%, followed by Todd Akin at 30%, and Sarah Steelman at 25%. 10% of voters say that they plan to choose someone else or that they’re undecided.
Brunner’s leading based on his strength with more middle of the road Republican voters. With those describing themselves as moderates he’s up 41-29 on Steelman with Akin at 25%, and among those describing themselves as ‘somewhat conservative’ he’s at 42% to 26% for Akin and 22% for Steelman. The largest group of Republican primary voters describe themselves as ‘very conservative,’ and Brunner actually trails Akin with them by a 33-30 spread.
Despite Brunner’s modest lead there are a couple of reasons to think an upset is possible on Tuesday night. One is that Akin leads Brunner 35-33 among voters who say they’re ‘very excited’ about casting their ballots on Tuesday. The other is that Akin appears to have the momentum in the closing stretch. It’s been more than two months since PPP last polled this race but compared to a Mason Dixon poll a week ago Akin’s up 13 points while Brunner’s gained only two points and Steelman’s actually dropped by a couple.
“John Brunner has the lead in the closing stretch in Missouri,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s still a close enough race that an upset, particticularly by Todd Akin, remains possible.”
It doesn’t look like there will be too much intrigue in any of the other major statewide primaries. For Governor Dave Spence leads with 42% to 15% for Bill Randles, 12% for Fred Sauer, and 3% for John Weiler. With 29% of voters still undecided Spence should end up over 50% in the final count. For Lieutenant Governor it looks like Peter Kinder will probably hold on and win renomination. He’s at 42% to 30% for Brad Lager, 6% for Mike Carter, and 5% for Charles Kullmann. The race for Attorney General doesn’t look like much of a race at all with Ed Martin leading Adam Warren 46-17.
PPP surveyed 590 likely Republican primart voters on August 4th and 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Are you planning to vote in the Republican or
Democratic Senate primary, or are you not
sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 The main candidates for Senate are Todd Akin,
John Brunner, and Sarah Steelman. If the
primary was today, who would you vote for?
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 30%
John Brunner ………………………………………….. 35%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 25%
Someone Else ………………………………………… 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Bill Randles,
Fred Sauer, Dave Spence, and John Weiler. If
the primary was today, who would you vote
for?
Bill Randles…………………………………………….. 15%
Fred Sauer……………………………………………… 12%
Dave Spence ………………………………………….. 42%
John Weiler…………………………………………….. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 29%
Q4 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Mike Carter, Peter Kinder, Charles Kullmann,
and Brad Lager. If the primary was today, who
would you vote for?
Mike Carter …………………………………………….. 6%
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 42%
Charles Kullmann…………………………………….. 5%
Brad Lager ……………………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 The candidates for Attorney General are Ed
Martin and Adam Warren. If the primary was
today, who would you vote for?
Ed Martin ……………………………………………….. 46%
Adam Warren………………………………………….. 17%
Undecided………………………………………………. 37%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Brunner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q9 Would you say you are very excited, somewhat
excited, or not that excited about voting in the
primary election?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 41%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 32%
Not that excited……………………………………….. 27%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q11 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
Q12 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 57%
Are not …………………………………………………… 43%
Q13 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 30%
No …………………………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 47%
Didn’t Answer………………………………………….. 5%
