Public Policy Polling

Rand Paul leads 2016 GOP hopefuls in Michigan

Raleigh, N.C.- Speaking to his increased national stature over the first half of 2013, the leading Republican for President in Michigan is Rand Paul. 18% of primary voters in the state say he would be their first choice for 2016, followed by Jeb Bush at 16%, Chris Christie at 15%, Paul Ryan at 12%, Marco Rubio at 11%, Ted Cruz at 7%, Rick Santorum at 6%, Bobby Jindal at 4%, and Susana Martinez with less than 1%.

Paul leads based on his strength with two key groups. Among voters who identify themselves as 'very conservative,' he's at 31% with none of the other GOP hopefuls higher than 15%. And with voters under 45 he's at 28%, giving him at least a 13 point lead over the rest of the field. That appeal to younger voters suggests he may be able to replicate the strong base of support his father had with them in last year's race.

Michigan Miscellany

-Speaking to his increased national stature over the first half of 2013, the leading Republican for President in Michigan is Rand Paul. 18% of primary voters in the state say he would be their first choice for 2016, followed by Jeb Bush at 16%, Chris Christie at 15%, Paul Ryan at 12%, Marco Rubio at 11%, Ted Cruz at 7%, Rick Santorum at 6%, Bobby Jindal at 4%, and Susana Martinez with less than 1%.

Paul leads based on his strength with two key groups. Among voters who identify themselves as 'very conservative,' he's at 31% with none of the other GOP hopefuls higher than 15%. And with voters under 45 he's at 28%, giving him at least a 13 point lead over the rest of the field. That appeal to younger voters suggests he may be able to replicate the strong base of support his father had with them in last year's race.

If Hillary Clinton's the Democratic candidate for President at least for now it looks like the state will remain firmly in the blue column. The only Republican who even comes within single digits of her is Christie, who still trails 44-38. The other 3 trail by margins closer to Barack Obama's 16 point margin of victory in 2008 than his 9 point victory from last fall- Clinton is up 14 on Bush at 51/37, 17 on Rubio at 53/36, and 20 on Paul at 55/35.

-Michigan is like most states in overwhelmingly supporting expanded background checks for gun purchases. 71% favor them to 21% who are opposed and the support cuts across party lines- Democrats favor them 87/7, independents do 64/25, and Republicans do 58/35.

Peters leads potential GOP foes by 5-20 points

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP's first look at the Michigan Senate race since Carl Levin's retirement announcement finds Democrat Gary Peters as the early front runner, leading 8 different potential Republican candidates by anywhere from 5 to 20 points.

The strongest potential Republican candidate at this point is former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, who announced her candidacy this week. She trails Peters by 5 points at 41/36. Land is the best known person considering the race too, although she still has just 50% name recognition.

Mike Rogers does the next best against Peters, trailing 42/32. After him it's Justin Amash and Dave Camp who each trail by 12 points at 42/30 and 43/31 respectively, Kimberly Small who's 16 points back at 42/26, Roger Kahn and Rob Steele who are each down 18 at 44/26, and Saul Anuzis who has a 20 point deficit at 44/24.

Peters leads GOP field in Michigan

PPP's first look at the Michigan Senate race since Carl Levin's retirement announcement finds Democrat Gary Peters as the early front runner, leading 8 different potential Republican candidates by anywhere from 5 to 20 points.

The strongest potential Republican candidate at this point is former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, who announced her candidacy this week. She trails Peters by 5 points at 41/36. Land is the best known person considering the race too, although she still has just 50% name recognition.

Mike Rogers does the next best against Peters, trailing 42/32. After him it's Justin Amash and Dave Camp who each trail by 12 points at 42/30 and 43/31 respectively, Kimberly Small who's 16 points back at 42/26, Roger Kahn and Rob Steele who are each down 18 at 44/26, and Saul Anuzis who has a 20 point deficit at 44/24.

Peters' strength in these early match ups has less to do with him than it does the general Democratic lean of the state in national elections. At this point only 34% of voters know enough about Peters to have formed an opinion of him, with those assessments coming in slightly positive at 18/16. The Republican field is a blur to voters too though- after Land the best known is Rogers with 35% name recognition, followed by Camp at 31%, Amash at 30%, Anuzis at 18%, Small and Steele at 17%, and Kahn at 16%. This simply isn't a very high profile field of potential candidates.

Schauer leads Snyder by 4 points

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP's first poll of the Michigan Gubernatorial race since Mark Schauer's official entry finds the Democrat leading incumbent Rick Snyder 42/38. PPP's polling of this match up over the last six months has been very consistent- in March Schauer also led Snyder by 4 points and in December he had a 5 point advantage.

Schauer's initial lead has a lot more to do with Snyder than it does with himself. Even after his official candidacy announcement, he has just 38% statewide name recognition. But Snyder continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 40% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove. He's at 40/51 with independents and Democrats (78% disapproval) dislike him a good deal more than Republicans (68% approval) like him.

Schauer leads Snyder by 4

PPP's first poll of the Michigan Gubernatorial race since Mark Schauer's official entry finds the Democrat leading incumbent Rick Snyder 42/38. PPP's polling of this match up over the last six months has been very consistent- in March Schauer also led Snyder by 4 points and in December he had a 5 point advantage.

Schauer's initial lead has a lot more to do with Snyder than it does with himself. Even after his official candidacy announcement, he has just 38% statewide name recognition. But Snyder continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 40% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove. He's at 40/51 with independents and Democrats (78% disapproval) dislike him a good deal more than Republicans (68% approval) like him.

Schauer's low name recognition at this point means that things could actually get worse for Snyder. The undecideds for Governor voted for Barack Obama by a 16 point margin, and only 22% approve of Snyder to 64% who disapprove. Those are folks likely to move into the Schauer camp once he becomes better known.

Snyder's role in the passage of right to work legislation continues to be a big problem for him. Just 40% of voters support that law to 50% who oppose it, numbers that have not seen any improvement since the initial furor after it passed in December. Snyder continues to have issues with his brand, as only 34% of voters now consider him to be 'one tough nerd' to 45% who don't.

Levin would have been favorite for re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – When we did our Michigan poll last weekend obviously we didn't know Carl Levin was going to announce his retirement this week, so we didn't test any other potential Democratic candidates. Our poll numbers on him do give a prism into the comparative strength of some of the possible Republican candidates though. The one who came the closest to Levin was Candice Miller, although she still trailed him 46/35. She has good statewide favorability numbers with 33% of voters rating her favorably to 25% with an unfavorable opinion.

No one else came within 15 points of Levin. Justin Amash has a 9/20 favorability rating and trailed Levin 49/34. Mike Rogers has a 16/19 favorability rating and trailed Levin 49/33. Bill Schuette has a 20/25 favorability rating and trailed Levin 51/32. And Roger Kahn had a 5/15 favorability rating and trailed Levin 50/30.

One other Republican who we didn't test on this poll but could potentially be a good candidate is former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. In December 2010 we found she had a 36/21 favorability rating and trailed Debbie Stabenow by only 4 points in a hypothetical contest.

Michigan Miscellany

-When we did our Michigan poll last weekend obviously we didn't know Carl Levin was going to announce his retirement this week, so we didn't test any other potential Democratic candidates. Our poll numbers on him do give a prism into the comparative strength of some of the possible Republican candidates though. The one who came the closest to Levin was Candice Miller, although she still trailed him 46/35. She has good statewide favorability numbers with 33% of voters rating her favorably to 25% with an unfavorable opinion.

No one else came within 15 points of Levin. Justin Amash has a 9/20 favorability rating and trailed Levin 49/34. Mike Rogers has a 16/19 favorability rating and trailed Levin 49/33. Bill Schuette has a 20/25 favorability rating and trailed Levin 51/32. And Roger Kahn had a 5/15 favorability rating and trailed Levin 50/30.

One other Republican who we didn't test on this poll but could potentially be a good candidate is former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. in December 2010 we found she had a 36/21 favorability rating and trailed Debbie Stabenow by only 4 points in a hypothetical contest.

Other notes from Michigan:

Democrats lead in Michigan gubernatorial race

Raleigh, N.C. – Michigan voters are unhappy with their Republican leaders. More Democrats than Republicans are favored in the Michigan legislature and for the Governor’s race next year.

Not helping incumbent Republican Governor Rick Snyder’s re-election race is his current approval rating. Sitting at a 37% approval rating and larger 54% disapproval rating, Snyder has dropped one point in his approval rating since a previous poll in December.

Comparing potential Democratic candidates for Governor next year with Governor Snyder, every Democrat beats Snyder. Voters prefer Virg Bernero, the mayor of Lansing and past candidate for Governor, to Snyder 43-38. Voters also prefer Democratic Congressman Gary Peters and former Democratic Congressman Mark Schauer to Snyder 44-37 and 40-36, respectively. Congressman Peters comes out on top of the Democratic potentials for Governor next year with his 7 point lead.

Snyder's numbers still down in the dumps

PPP's newest Michigan poll finds that Rick Snyder's numbers are not recovering yet following the plunge they took in December after he signed the right to work law. Only 37% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 54% who disapprove, numbers basically identical to a 38/56 spread when we polled Michigan 11 weeks ago. Snyder's at just 34/56 with independents.

The right to work law continues to be a major contributor to Snyder's problems. Only 39% of voters in the state support it, while 48% are opposed. Those numbers are pretty similar to the 41/51 spread we found in December- the passage of time isn't changing voters' opposition to the bill.

Snyder trails every Democrat we tested in hypothetical reelection contests. Congressman Gary Peters does the best, leading Snyder by 7 points at 44-37. 2010 nominee Virg Bernero has a 5 point lead at 43-38, representing a 23 point reversal from their first showdown when Snyder won by 18. And former Congressman Mark Schauer leads Snyder by a 40/36 spread.

It could get worse for Snyder before it gets better. These Democrats all lead despite having very little statewide name recognition- 46% of voters are familiar with Bernero and from there it drops to 35% who know Peters and just 30% who know Schauer. As a result the undecideds in all of these contests lean strongly toward people who disapprove of Snyder and voted for Barack Obama last year. Those are folks likely to end up in the Democratic column once the party has a candidate and that person builds up their name recognition.