Public Policy Polling

MLB and NFL teams are Michigan’s favorite pro teams

Raleigh, N.C. – Michigan voters list Major League Baseball’s Detroit Tigers and the NFL’s Detroit Lions as their two most favorite pro sports teams in Michigan, a new Public Policy Polling survey surrounding various pro and college sports topics finds. When asked which is their favorite pro sports team, 29% of voters said the Detroit Tigers, 27% said the Lions, 20% choose the NHL’s Red Wings, and just 6% said the NBA’s Pistons were their favorite pro team. 17% said someone else was their favorite or they weren’t sure.

African-American voters preferred the Detroit Lions (54%) and Detroit Pistons (23%) for a total of 77% of African-American voters choosing Michigan’s pro football or basketball team as their favorite.  Conversely, while many white voters also chose the Lions (24%), a majority of 55%  of white voters chose MLB’s Tigers (33%) or the NHL’s Red Wings (22%).

Michigan Sports Poll

-By a narrow margin Michigan voters say the Tigers are their favorite professional sports team in the state. They get 29% to 27% for the Lions, 20% for the Red Wings, and just 6% for the currently moribund Pistons.

There's a significant racial divide in who voters pick as their favorite teams. Among white voters the Tigers win easily with 33% to 24% for the Lions, 22% for the Red Wings, and just 3% for the Pistons. But among black voters the Tigers take up the basement at 5%, trailing the Lions at 54%, Pistons at 23%, and even the Red Wings at 8%. That's just another sign that baseball has a lot of work to do to garner interest from African Americans.

This is tied in with the racial divide but Republicans pick the Tigers over the Lions 36-27, while Democrats pick the Lions over the Tigers 32-24.

-37% of voters in the state say they're Michigan fans to 31% who side with Michigan State and 32% who don't care either way. There is somewhat of an ideological divide on this question. 'Very liberal' Michiganders pick the Wolverines 55-26, while 'very conservative' ones pick the Spartans 37-30. White voters are pretty evenly split, going for Michigan 34-32, but 53-22 support from black voters pushes the Maize and Blue's lead out to 6 points.

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Romney gaining on Santorum in Michigan

Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum's favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.

Michigan GOP race tightens

The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum's favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.

What we're seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent's image- here Romney's gains have more to do with building himself up.

Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), 'very conservative' voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).

Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), 'somewhat conservative' voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).

Snyder, Republican legislature unpopular with voters

Raleigh, N.C. – A new poll from Public Policy Polling fings that Governor Rick Snyder holds a negative approval rating with Michigan voters. 47% of voters disapprove of Snyder’s job performance while just 40% approve. Despite the low approval numbers, voters appear to have little appetite for a potential recall of Snyder with 36% saying they would support such an effort and 55% opposing.

Voters are nearly split on whether Rick Snyder or Jennifer Granholm has done a better job as Governor, with 41% choosing Granholm and 42% choosing Snyder. More voters oppose (45%) than support (38%) Snyder’s recent signing of a law that bans benefits for same-sex partners of public employees.

Michigan Miscellaneous

-Michigan Governor Rick Snyder continues to be unpopular...but his numbers have improved a little bit from his first year in office. 40% of voters now approve of the job he's doing to 47% who disapprove. PPP's previous 2 polls on Snyder since he took office had found him with approval ratings of only 33% and 38% and both found 50% giving him poor marks.

Snyder's numbers with Republicans are pretty steady. His improvement comes because he's back above water with independents, if narrowly at 43-42, and because Democrats' attitudes toward him have softened a little bit. He's gone from 10/80 to 16/74 with them.

There is little remaining desire for a recall of Snyder. Only 36% of voters support one, while 55% are opposed. Even among voters who disapprove of him a sizable chunk do not support a recall.

Asked whether they prefer Snyder or his predecessor, Jennifer Granholm, Michigan voters split pretty evenly with Snyder coming out ahead 42-41.

-The news for Snyder might be getting a little brighter but that's not the case when it comes to the Republicans in the legislature. Only 20% of voters have a favorable opinion of them, while 63% see them negatively. With independents it's a 14/67 spread. The Democrats aren't real popular either, with 36% giving them a positive rating to 46% with a negative one.

Democrats should have a pretty good chance at retaking control of the House there this fall.  They lead the generic legislative ballot by 14 points, 48-34. They have an 8 point advantage with independents and are also benefiting from superior party unity with 92% of Democrats planning to vote Democratic to 83% of Republicans planning to vote Republican.

Obama leading Republicans big in Michigan

Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama leads all Republican challengers in Michigan by double digits, while Republicans are suffering from high unfavorability ratings among voters. Obama leads Mitt Romney by 16 points (54-38), leads Newt Gingrich by 22 points (56-34), leads Rick Santorum by 11 points (50-39) and leads Ron Paul by 18 points (52-34). Last July, we found that Obama led Romney by just 5 points (47-42).

Obama’s job approval rating in Michigan stands at 52% approval and 44% disapproval, an improvement from last July when Obama was at 50/46. 53% of voters say that Barack Obama’s leadership has been “good for Michigan’s economy” while 41% think it’s been bad.

Obama up big in Michigan

Michigan is looking more and more like it won't be in the swing state column this fall.  PPP's newest poll there finds Barack Obama leading the entire Republican field by double digits.

The biggest surprise in the numbers might be how badly Obama is beating Mitt Romney- he leads him by 16 points at 54-38. That's a major departure from PPP's previous 3 Michigan President polls, which found Obama ahead by only 4-7 points. Romney's seen a major decline in his personal favorability in the state over the last 6 months from 39/43 to now 29/58. His numbers have dropped across the board but the most striking shift is with independents. He's gone from a +14 spread with them at 48/34 to a -20 one at 32/52.

52% of Michigan voters support the bailout of the auto industry when they look back on it to 36% opposed. With that majority who support it, Romney's favorability is 19/75 and he trails Obama 81-15. 62% of Republican voters oppose the bailout to only 24% supportive so that issue may not hurt Romney too much in the primary, but his stance could take the state off the board for him in November.

The strongest Republican candidate in Michigan is actually Rick Santorum, who trails Obama by only 11 points at 50-39. Our recent polling has been punching some holes in Romney's electability argument. National numbers we released yesterday showed Santorum a couple points stronger than Romney, and when you average out our last 5 battleground state polls in Michigan, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, and Minnesota there's no difference between Romney and Santorum's strength against Obama.