Clinton Leads by 5 in Firewall States

| Tom Jensen

New PPP polls in Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia find Hillary Clinton leading by 5 points in each state in the final rundown to election day.

Clinton leads 48-43 in Colorado, with Gary Johnson at 4%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head match up just between her and Trump, she leads 50-45.

Clinton leads 46-41 in Michigan, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. Clinton’s lead grows slightly to 50/44 in a head to head between her and Trump.

Clinton leads 48-43 in Virginia, with Gary Johnson at 4%, Jill Stein at 1%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. Her leads grows slightly to 51/45 in a head to head between her and Trump.

As is happening in battleground states across the country, Clinton’s amassing a large lead in early voting in each of these states. Among those who have already cast their ballots she’s up 52-41 in Colorado, 57-36 in Michigan, and 63-32 in Virginia. Trump will be counting on a very strong performance on Election Day to have any chance at taking Michigan and Virginia, and he’s probably pretty much already lost Colorado given the volume of early voting there.

One thing that’s working to Clinton’s advantage in all these states is that voters would much rather have 4 more years of Barack Obama as President than Donald Trump. Voters in Colorado would prefer Obama 52/44, voters in Michigan would prefer him 52/40, and voters in Virginia would prefer him 53/44. Obama has aggressively campaigned for Clinton as the successor to his legacy, and that’s helped her greatly since voters would much rather stay on the country’s current course than take the sharp turn of direction a Trump presidency would entail.

All these states reflect the overarching theme of the campaign that Hillary Clinton is unpopular, but Donald Trump is even far more unpopular. In Colorado Clinton’s favorability is -14 at 41/55, but Trump’s is -24 at 36/60. In Michigan Clinton’s favorability is -16 at 39/55, but Trump’s is -23 at 35/58. And in Virginia Clinton’s favorability is -10 at 43/53, but Trump’s is -21 at 37/58.

These polls results are generally consistent with our findings released in partnership with the Center for American Progress in New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin today. This will conclude our public polling program for the 2016 cycle. If you care about the outcome of the election, don’t spend the weekend freaking out about polls and forecasts, spend it volunteering and getting out the vote for the side you care about.



Full results here


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