Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Michigan poll finds a tied race for governor this fall between incumbent Republican Rick Snyder and Democrat Mark Schauer, along with a close race for the open Senate seat between Republican Terri Lynn Land and Democrat Gary Peters.
In the Governor’s race, Snyder and Schauer are tied at 40% apiece despite Snyder’s highly negative job performance rating. 37% of Michigan voters approve of Snyder’s performance while 54% disapprove. However, while voters have a negative opinion of the incumbent, they tend to have no opinion at all on Schauer. Among those that do, Schauer has a slightly positive rating with 27% favorable and 24% unfavorable. 49% of voters have no opinion either way. Schauer actually leads Snyder within every age group except older than 65, where Snyder leads with 49% to Schauer’s 38%.
“Rick Snyder’s approval ratings are on the decline in the midst of an advertising blitz against him,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This is looking like a very competitive race with a lot of voters remaining undecided and Mark Schauer still largely undefined to Michiganders.”
The Democratic candidate for Senate Gary Peters is also a relative unknown, as 46% of voters do not have an opinion on him. Despite this, Peters leads Terri Lynn Land by 5 points at 41% to 36%. More voters have an opinion on Land, but it turns out to be a negative one, as 42% of people view her unfavorably compared to 32% who view her favorably. Helping Peters could be the popularity of retiring Democratic Senator Carl Levin, who has an approval rating of 47% with 34% disapproval.
In state politics, Michigan voters have a much more positive view of Democrats in the legislature than Republicans. While voters are split on their view of Democrats (39% favorable/39% unfavorable), they have a highly negative view of the Republicans by more than a two-to-one margin (24% favorable/56% unfavorable). In a generic ballot, 48% of voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for state legislature and 34% say they would vote for the Republican.
PPP surveyed 578 registered voters from June 26th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.1%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Schauer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q4 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Rick Snyder and Democrat Mark
Schauer, who would you vote for?
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 40%
Mark Schauer …………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terri Lynn Land?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Peters?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican Terri Lynn Land and Democrat
Gary Peters, who would you vote for?
Terri Lynn Land ……………………………………….. 36%
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Schuette?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Totten?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q10 If the candidates for Attorney General this fall
were Republican Bill Schuette and Democrat
Mark Totten, who would you vote for?
Bill Schuette……………………………………………. 34%
Mark Totten…………………………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl
Levin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the Michigan legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the Michigan legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q15 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q16 Would you support or oppose a ballot measure
to repeal the right-to-work law?
Support ………………………………………………….. 42%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q17 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 10%
Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 27%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 38%
Q21 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q23 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
