Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Michigan poll finds that Gary Peters has reclaimed the lead over Terri Lynn Land in the Senate race as perceptions about the rollout of Obamacare have dramatically improved during the last four months.
In early December Land led Peters by a 2 point margin in our polling. Now Peters is ahead by 5 points at 41/36. The race has moved largely because what was a 17 point lead for Land with independents is now a tie between the two candidates. Early attacks ads on Land have taken a toll on her favorability rating- it’s declined a net 14 points since our last poll from a +11 spread at 34/23 to now a -3 spread at 28/31. There hasn’t been much change in feelings about Peters with voters who have an opinion about him still pretty evenly divided.
One thing that’s helped make the terrain better for Peters as he tries to keep the seat Democratic is that opinions about how the Obamacare rollout has gone have improved dramatically since our last poll. In December 63% of voters rated the rollout as having been unsuccessful, compared to just 30% who thought it had gone well. Now it’s down to 52% who rate the rollout as unsuccessful with those saying it’s been a success up to 40%. Voters are still opposed to the Affordable Care Act overall- 37% support it to 48% who are opposed- but it’s not as problematic an issue for Democrats as it was late last year.
The Governor’s race has barely moved at all since December- Rick Snyder held a 4 point lead for reelection over Mark Schauer then and he continues to hold a 4 point lead for reelection now, at 43/39. Snyder is not terribly popular- 40% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 48% who disapprove. And voters say by a 44/34 margin that they would vote to repeal his signature right to work law. But he outperforms his approval numbers for a couple reasons.
“Michigan appears to be headed for two close races this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But things are looking a little bit brighter for Democrats in the Senate race as perceptions about the rollout of Obamacare have improved.”
PPP surveyed 825 registered voters from April 3rd to 6th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.4%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Schauer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q4 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Rick Snyder and Democrat Mark
Schauer, who would you vote for?
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 43%
Mark Schauer …………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terri Lynn Land?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Peters?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican Terri Lynn Land and Democrat
Gary Peters, who would you vote for?
Terri Lynn Land ……………………………………….. 36%
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Schuette?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Totten?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q10 If the candidates for Attorney General this fall
were Republican Bill Schuette and Democrat
Mark Totten, who would you vote for?
Bill Schuette……………………………………………. 36%
Mark Totten…………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the Michigan legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the Michigan legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q13 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 Would you support or oppose a ballot measure
to repeal the right-to-work law?
Support ………………………………………………….. 44%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q16 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 11%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 29%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 15%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q17 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 8%
Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 35%
Q21 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q23 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
