New Public Policy Polling surveys of the 12 states that will hold Democratic primaries for President between March 1st and 8th, conducted on behalf of American Family Voices, find Hillary Clinton leading the way in 10 of 12, with double digit leads in 9 of them. Bernie Sanders has an overwhelming lead in his home state of Vermont and also leads in Massachusetts. The race is close in Oklahoma where Clinton is ahead by just 2 points, but she has double digit leads in the other 9 states that will have primaries that week:
State |
Clinton Support |
Sanders Support |
Spread |
Alabama |
59% |
31% |
Clinton +28 |
Arkansas |
57% |
32% |
Clinton +25 |
Georgia |
60% |
26% |
Clinton +34 |
Louisiana |
60% |
29% |
Clinton +31 |
Massachusetts |
42% |
49% |
Sanders +7 |
Michigan |
50% |
40% |
Clinton +10 |
Mississippi |
60% |
26% |
Clinton +34 |
Oklahoma |
46% |
44% |
Clinton +2 |
Tennessee |
58% |
32% |
Clinton +26 |
Texas |
57% |
34% |
Clinton +23 |
Virginia |
56% |
34% |
Clinton +22 |
Vermont |
10% |
86% |
Sanders +76 |
Clinton is benefiting in these states from overwhelming African American support. She leads by anywhere from 40-62 points among black voters in the nine of these states that have more black voters than the national average. Her support ranges from 63-74% with black voters in those states, while Sanders gets 12-23%:
State |
Clinton Black Support |
Sanders Black Support |
Spread |
Alabama |
67% |
22% |
Clinton +45 |
Arkansas |
74% |
12% |
Clinton +62 |
Georgia |
70% |
14% |
Clinton +56 |
Louisiana |
72% |
15% |
Clinton +57 |
Michigan |
71% |
19% |
Clinton +52 |
Mississippi |
66% |
19% |
Clinton +47 |
Tennessee |
74% |
15% |
Clinton +59 |
Texas |
63% |
23% |
Clinton +40 |
Virginia |
74% |
16% |
Clinton +58 |
Issues That Work To Clinton’s Benefit:
One issue that’s playing to Clinton’s particular advantage is who people trust most to be Commander in Chief. She has at least a 31 point advantage over Sanders on that front in every state other than Vermont. Other issues she does particularly well on are women’s issues where she has at least a 36 point advantage in every state other than Vermont and improving race relations where she likewise has a double digit advantage everywhere other than Senator Sanders’ home state:
Issue |
Commander in Chief |
Race Relations |
Immigration |
Women’s Issues |
Alabama |
Clinton 72/19 |
Clinton 61/22 |
Clinton 57/22 |
Clinton 78/14 |
Arkansas |
Clinton 71/20 |
Clinton 57/29 |
Clinton 54/26 |
Clinton 68/20 |
Georgia |
Clinton 75/16 |
Clinton 58/23 |
Clinton 60/21 |
Clinton 77/12 |
Louisiana |
Clinton 71/16 |
Clinton 60/23 |
Clinton 57/26 |
Clinton 75/15 |
Massachusetts |
Clinton 65/26 |
Clinton 43/37 |
Clinton 40/37 |
Clinton 60/26 |
Michigan |
Clinton 66/25 |
Clinton 50/34 |
Clinton 48/34 |
Clinton 65/25 |
Mississippi |
Clinton 72/17 |
Clinton 62/22 |
Clinton 56/20 |
Clinton 72/15 |
Oklahoma |
Clinton 59/28 |
Clinton 44/33 |
Clinton 39/36 |
Clinton 61/25 |
Tennessee |
Clinton 73/20 |
Clinton 57/27 |
Clinton 53/28 |
Clinton 71/19 |
Virginia |
Clinton 73/18 |
Clinton 56/26 |
Clinton 52/27 |
Clinton 69/18 |
Vermont |
Sanders 50/37 |
Sanders 73/13 |
Sanders 71/13 |
Sanders 58/28 |
Issues Where The Candidates Are More Evenly Matched:
Sanders does better on the issues of who voters trust most to crack down on Wall Street and who they have more faith in to pursue policies that raise the incomes of average Americans. Voters trust Sanders more to crack down on Wall Street in 5 of the 12 states we polled and in the states where Clinton is trusted more on that question it’s by a much more narrow margin than her overall lead. Sanders is trusted more to pursue policies that will raise the wealth of average Americans in 4 of the 12 states, and again in the states where Clinton still has an advantage on that question it’s much more close than the overall horse race:
Issue |
Cracking Down on Wall Street |
Raising Incomes of Average Americans |
Alabama |
Clinton 48/35 |
Clinton 56/32 |
Arkansas |
Clinton 43/39 |
Clinton 51/36 |
Georgia |
Clinton 45/32 |
Clinton 51/35 |
Louisiana |
Clinton 49/34 |
Clinton 54/30 |
Massachusetts |
Sanders 59/27 |
Sanders 54/34 |
Michigan |
Sanders 51/34 |
Sanders 44/43 |
Mississippi |
Clinton 50/29 |
Clinton 55/25 |
Oklahoma |
Sanders 46/33 |
Sanders 45/38 |
Tennessee |
Clinton 47/40 |
Clinton 53/34 |
Texas |
Clinton 44/38 |
Clinton 53/36 |
Virginia |
Sanders 41/40 |
Clinton 49/38 |
Vermont |
Sanders 90/6 |
Sanders 86/7 |
Full results here