Polls

Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support

| Tom Jensen

New Public Policy Polling surveys of the 12 states that will hold Democratic primaries for President between March 1st and 8th, conducted on behalf of American Family Voices, find Hillary Clinton leading the way in 10 of 12, with double digit leads in 9 of them. Bernie Sanders has an overwhelming lead in his home state of Vermont and also leads in Massachusetts. The race is close in Oklahoma where Clinton is ahead by just 2 points, but she has double digit leads in the other 9 states that will have primaries that week:

State

Clinton Support

Sanders Support

Spread

Alabama

59%

31%

Clinton +28

Arkansas

57%

32%

Clinton +25

Georgia

60%

26%

Clinton +34

Louisiana

60%

29%

Clinton +31

Massachusetts

42%

49%

Sanders +7

Michigan

50%

40%

Clinton +10

Mississippi

60%

26%

Clinton +34

Oklahoma

46%

44%

Clinton +2

Tennessee

58%

32%

Clinton +26

Texas

57%

34%

Clinton +23

Virginia

56%

34%

Clinton +22

Vermont

10%

86%

Sanders +76

Clinton is benefiting in these states from overwhelming African American support. She leads by anywhere from 40-62 points among black voters in the nine of these states that have more black voters than the national average. Her support ranges from 63-74% with black voters in those states, while Sanders gets 12-23%:

State

Clinton Black Support

Sanders Black Support

Spread

Alabama

67%

22%

Clinton +45

Arkansas

74%

12%

Clinton +62

Georgia

70%

14%

Clinton +56

Louisiana

72%

15%

Clinton +57

Michigan

71%

19%

Clinton +52

Mississippi

66%

19%

Clinton +47

Tennessee

74%

15%

Clinton +59

Texas

63%

23%

Clinton +40

Virginia

74%

16%

Clinton +58

Issues That Work To Clinton’s Benefit:

One issue that’s playing to Clinton’s particular advantage is who people trust most to be Commander in Chief. She has at least a 31 point advantage over Sanders on that front in every state other than Vermont. Other issues she does particularly well on are women’s issues where she has at least a 36 point advantage in every state other than Vermont and improving race relations where she likewise has a double digit advantage everywhere other than Senator Sanders’ home state:

Issue

Commander in Chief

Race Relations

Immigration

Women’s Issues

Alabama

Clinton 72/19

Clinton 61/22

Clinton 57/22

Clinton 78/14

Arkansas

Clinton 71/20

Clinton 57/29

Clinton 54/26

Clinton 68/20

Georgia

Clinton 75/16

Clinton 58/23

Clinton 60/21

Clinton 77/12

Louisiana

Clinton 71/16

Clinton 60/23

Clinton 57/26

Clinton 75/15

Massachusetts

Clinton 65/26

Clinton 43/37

Clinton 40/37

Clinton 60/26

Michigan

Clinton 66/25

Clinton 50/34

Clinton 48/34

Clinton 65/25

Mississippi

Clinton 72/17

Clinton 62/22

Clinton 56/20

Clinton 72/15

Oklahoma

Clinton 59/28

Clinton 44/33

Clinton 39/36

Clinton 61/25

Tennessee

Clinton 73/20

Clinton 57/27

Clinton 53/28

Clinton 71/19

Virginia

Clinton 73/18

Clinton 56/26

Clinton 52/27

Clinton 69/18

Vermont

Sanders 50/37

Sanders  73/13

Sanders 71/13

Sanders 58/28

Issues Where The Candidates Are More Evenly Matched:

Sanders does better on the issues of who voters trust most to crack down on Wall Street and who they have more faith in to pursue policies that raise the incomes of average Americans. Voters trust Sanders more to crack down on Wall Street in 5 of the 12 states we polled and in the states where Clinton is trusted more on that question it’s by a much more narrow margin than her overall lead. Sanders is trusted more to pursue policies that will raise the wealth of average Americans in 4 of the 12 states, and again in the states where Clinton still has an advantage on that question it’s much more close than the overall horse race:

Issue

Cracking Down on Wall Street

Raising Incomes of Average Americans

Alabama

Clinton 48/35

Clinton 56/32

Arkansas

Clinton 43/39

Clinton 51/36

Georgia

Clinton 45/32

Clinton 51/35

Louisiana

Clinton 49/34

Clinton 54/30

Massachusetts

Sanders 59/27

Sanders 54/34

Michigan

Sanders 51/34

Sanders 44/43

Mississippi

Clinton 50/29

Clinton 55/25

Oklahoma

Sanders 46/33

Sanders 45/38

Tennessee

Clinton 47/40

Clinton 53/34

Texas

Clinton 44/38

Clinton 53/36

Virginia

Sanders 41/40

Clinton 49/38

Vermont

Sanders 90/6

Sanders 86/7

Full results here

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