Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton still leads her top potential opponents for 2016 in Michigan, but the margins are a good deal closer than they were 6 months ago. Clinton is up 43/40 on Chris Christie, 46/42 on Jeb Bush, 48/39 on Rand Paul, and 49/38 on Ted Cruz. This is the first time Cruz has been tested, but Clinton’s average lead of 5 points over Christie, Bush, and Paul is quite a bit down from an average lead of 13 points over that trio when we polled the state in June. The decline in Clinton’s leads mirrors what we found for Democrats in the races for Governor and Senate on this poll.

Rand Paul narrowly leads the Republican field in the state with 18% to 16% for Chris Christie, 15% for Ted Cruz, 10% for Jeb Bush, 8% for Marco Rubio, 7% for Paul Ryan, 5% for Scott Walker, 4% for Bobby Jindal, and 2% for Rick Santorum. Christie win the moderates (31% to 15% for Paul and 8% for Cruz) and Cruz wins the voters identifying themselves as ‘very conservative’ (27% to 18% for Paul and 10% for Christie), but Paul leads overall because he’s up with folks identifying as ‘somewhat conservative’ (21% to 10% for Cruz and 9% for Christie).

One place where things are continuing to look pretty positive for Michigan Democrats is how voters feel about the legislature. Opinion about the Democrats is pretty closely divided, with 40% rating them favorably to 42% with an unfavorable opinion. Meanwhile the Republicans remain incredibly unpopular with only 28% of voters giving them positive marks to 57% who hold a negative view.

Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot by an 8 point margin at 46/38. What that will amount to in terms of seats gained given gerrymandering in the state is unclear but it’s obvious voters continue to be displeased with how legislative Republicans have conducted business since the last election.

As we’re finding most everywhere Michigan voters strongly support raising the minimum wage to $10 an hour- 57% would support such a move to only 35% who are opposed. It has overwhelming support from Democrats (87/8), a majority of independents (51/40), and even a little more than a quarter of Republicans (27/64).

PPP surveyed 1,034 Michigan voters, including 450 Republican primary voters, from December 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.0%, and +/-4.6% for the GOP sample. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the Michigan legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the Michigan legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q3 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q8 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage in Michigan to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 57%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q9 Do you consider yourself to be more of a
Michigan or Michigan State fan?
Michigan ………………………………………………… 38%
Michigan State ………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q10 (Asked only of Michigan fans:) Do you approve
or disapprove of the job Brady Hoke is doing as
football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q11 (Asked only of Michigan fans:) Do you have a
favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rich
Rodriguez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%

Q12 (Asked only of Michigan fans:) Do you approve
or disapprove of the job John Beilein is doing
as basketball coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%

Q13 (Asked only of Michigan State fans:) Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Mark
Dantonio is doing as football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 66%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q14 (Asked only of Michigan State fans:) Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Tom Izzo is
doing as basketball coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 75%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a Detroit Lions
fan, or not?
Are ………………………………………………………… 66%
Are not …………………………………………………… 34%

Q16 (Asked only of Lions fans:) Do you approve or
disapprove of the job Coach Jim Schwartz is
doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q17 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%

Q21 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q22 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 10%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 16%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 15%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 4%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 18%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 8%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 7%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 14%

Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%

Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 32%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%