Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Looking at the 2012 electoral map

Mitt Romney's victory in Iowa last night may not have been very impressive, but it still increases the chances he will emerge as the Republican nominee in the end and that makes it worth taking a first look at the 2012 electoral map.

Over the course of 2011 PPP did at least 2 polls in 15 major swing states.  Here's how the Obama/Romney numbers averaged out, from the places where Obama's strongest to where he's weakest:

State	Our Poll Average	# of Polls
New Mexico	Obama +13	3
Wisconsin	Obama +8	4
Iowa	Obama +7	5
Michigan	Obama +6	2
Virginia	Obama +5	3
Colorado	Obama +5	3
Ohio	Obama +3	4
North Carolina	Obama +2	12
Florida	Obama +2	4
Pennsylvania	Obama +1	4
Nevada	Tie	4
New Hampshire	Romney +1	2
Missouri	Romney +2	3
Arizona	Romney +6	3
Montana	Romney +9	2

Note: I'm excluding 2 polls from these averages: a Virginia poll right after the killing of Osama bin Laden and an Ohio poll conducted of likely voters for the November referendum election. The referendum drew out a likely voter pool that's probably different from who will come out this November and polls taken right after the bin Laden killing are not a realistic gauge of where Obama stands right now.

If you go strictly by the averages Obama's in pretty good shape for reelection. Ceding Indiana (which we can't poll) to Romney, Obama gets 337 electoral votes to 195 for Romney with the 6 for Nevada on the table.

Here's the thing though: our polls and probably everyone's polls are actually worse for Obama than they look right now.  That's because a disproportionate number of the undecideds in Obama/Romney polling are Republicans. Romney's not their first choice for the nomination so they're being stubborn and saying they're undecided for the general, even though it's pretty much a certainty that they'll end up voting for the GOP nominee in the end. 

New Mexico for gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – New Mexico joins its northern neighbor Colorado and nearby Nevada in a growing list of Southwestern states in favor of same-sex marriage.  When PPP last polled the state in June, voters were against legalizing it by a 42-48 margin.  In the intervening half-year, opinion has moved eight points, with 45% now wanting gay couples to be able to legally marry in the state, and 43% still against it.  The reason for the shift is that Democrats (from 34% to 28%) and independents (44% to 37%) have lowered their opposition by six or seven points.  Further, two-thirds of New Mexicans also still favor these relationships being recognized with at least the legal equality of civil unions.  That includes 78% of Democrats, 71% of independents, and 41% of Republicans.

New Mexico Miscellany

-Susana Martinez continues to have some of the most impressive approval numbers in the country. We find 50% of voters approving of her to 39% who disapprove.  She's only of only 11 Governors PPP has found this year with an approval at 50% or higher, and she's the most popular out of the new Republican Governors elected last fall that we've polled on.

What makes Martinez's numbers so noteworthy is that she's doing it as a Republican in a state that voted for Barack Obama by 15 points in 2008 and appears ready to do so again next year. In addition to universal support from Republicans, an unusually high 32% of Democrats give her good marks and independents approve of her by a 48/38 margin as well.

Marco Rubio (40% approval in Florida) and Bob McDonnell (45% approval in Virginia) get most of the VP buzz, but Martinez has much more impressive numbers in her home state.

-Martinez's numbers are good but they don't match up to the state's Senate delegation. Jeff Bingaman (54/32) and Tom Udall (51/33) both have very strong numbers. The only other states where PPP has found both Senators with at least a 50% approval rating this year are Maine, Mississippi, Vermont, Washington, and Wyoming.

-2 of New Mexico's iconic politicians left office in the last few years and we checked up on how voters in the state are currently feeling about them. Bill Richardson continues to be one of the most reviled political figures in the country, with only 27% seeing him favorably to 63% with an unfavorable opinion. To put a 63% unfavorability into some context, we found that Charlie Sheen was seen negatively by 67% of Americans earlier this year. Probably not the company a politician wants to be keeping.

Obama cleaning up in New Mexico

Raleigh, N.C. – Until 2008, New Mexico was one of the closest swing states in the country.  Al Gore won New Mexico by hundredths of a point in 2000, and George W. Bush won it by less than one point in 2004.  President Obama changed all that; he trounced John McCain by 15 points in 2008, and in PPP’s latest poll of the state, it looks like he is set to do that again.

When PPP last polled the state six months ago, Obama led Mitt Romney by the same 49-42 margin by which Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole in 1996.  In the intervening months, that lead has jumped to the same 15 points by which Obama beat McCain last time (53-38).  Neighboring Texas’ Ron Paul actual comes closer by two points (51-38); nominal frontrunner Newt Gingrich lags by 17 (56-39); Michele Bachmann by 20 (56-36); and Rick Perry by 21 (56-35).  As in most states lately, Paul is the only candidate to beat the president with independents (by eight points), while the others trail by four to 13.

Obama looks safe in New Mexico

Barack Obama is considerably less popular in New Mexico now than he was in 2008. He won 57% of the vote there, but now has an approval rating under 50% in the state at 49/46. Those represent the poorest numbers we've found for him in New Mexico all year: in February he was at 55% approval and in June it was 50%.  Obama is upside down with independents at 47/52 and has a lower than normal 72% approval rating with Democrats.

The good news for Obama though is that voters in the state aren't responding positively to any of the Republican hopefuls. Current front runner Newt Gingrich has a 28/62 favorability rating and Mitt Romney's is 27/58. The most 'popular' of the Republicans, such as it is, is Ron Paul at 27/54.

Paul is also the only one of the Republicans who manages to improve on John McCain's 2008 peformance in the state. He trails by 13 points at 51-38.  He's the only GOP hopeful who leads Obama with independents, at 46-38, and the 14% of Democrats he gets ties Romney for the highest level of crossover support any of the Republicans receives.  Paul as the strongest of the Republican candidates with independents has become more the rule than the exception in our recent polling across the country.

Heinrich leading Wilson by seven for NM-Sen.

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s latest poll of the race to replace New Mexico Sen. Jeff Bingaman shows that, at least right now, the candidates most likely to win the respective party primaries are the two strongest general-election candidates, based on name recognition.

Rep. Martin Heinrich would defeat former Rep. Heather Wilson by a seven-point (47-40) margin if the election were today.  Wilson is down two points from a 47-42 deficit when PPP last polled the state in June.  Were Hector Balderas to defeat Heinrich in the primary, he would tie Wilson at 43%, a decline of six points in six months for the State Auditor.  The other Republicans tested—Lt. Gov. John Sanchez and businessman Greg Sowards, both far less-recognized names than Wilson’s—would fall to Balderas by respective seven- and 14-point margins, and to Heinrich by 11 and 18.

Dems have modest lead in New Mexico Senate race

The most likely match up in the New Mexico Senate race is Martin Heinrich on the Democratic side and Heather Wilson on the Republican side and if that proves to be the case, Democrats will start out with a modest advantage. Heinrich leads Wilson 47-40, a margin pretty much identical to the 47-42 PPP found when it last polled the race in June.

Neither of the candidates are exactly popular with voters in the state. Heinrich has an equal 35% holding favorable and unfavorable opinions of him and he's still relatively unknown beyond his Congressional district, with 30% of voters overall saying they're ambivalent toward him. Wilson has negative favorability numbers with 37% seeing her positively while 46% have a negative opinion of her.

Our Republican numbers yesterday showed Wilson with an overwhelming advantage for her party's nomination. Heinrich is the clear favorite on the Democratic side but his lead is a little bit more modest, 47-30 over Hector Balderas.  Heinrich's 47% standing is exactly where he was when we last polled this race in June, but Balderas has gained support from his 24% showing then. The key shift has been with Hispanic v0ters- Balderas has gone from a 39-36 deficit to a 41-35 advantage with them. He'll need a much bigger lead than that to offset Heinrich's 58-22 spread with whites though.

Gingrich, Wilson dominant in NM pres, Sen. primaries

Raleigh, N.C. – Despite popularity with the general electorate, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson has never been particularly well-liked with his home-state Republicans.  He certainly outperforms his minuscule standing in the presidential primaries in other states, but still can muster no more than third here.  And if he were to switch races and opt for a Senate bid, he still would have considerably less support than favorite Heather Wilson.

In his current campaign, Johnson has 11% behind national frontrunner Newt Gingrich’s 39% and Mitt Romney’s 14%, but ahead of the 8% earned by neighboring Texans Ron Paul and Rick Perry, as well as Michele Bachmann (6%) and usual fellow cellar dwellers Rick Santorum (3%) and Jon Huntsman (2%).  Johnson actually leads 26-20-19 over Gingrich and Romney with moderates, but they are only 17% of the electorate.  He gets only 10% with the 36% who say they are somewhat conservative and just 4% with the 43% plurality who are furthest to the right.