Raleigh, N.C. – The story in the New Mexico Senate race has been the same every time PPP’s polled it- it’s close, but Democrats have a small early advantage.
Our newest poll finds Martin Heinrich leading Heather Wilson 48-43 and Hector Balderas with a 44-43 advantage. Both match ups have seen only a small change from when PPP polled the state in December. At that time Heinrich led Wilson 47-40 and Balderas and Wilson were knotted at 43%.
It appears likely Heinrich will be the Democratic nominee. He has a 51-27 advantage over Balderas in the primary, up from 47-30 on our last poll. The candidates are running even with Hispanics at 40%, but Heinrich is leading on the basis of a 64-12 advantage with white voters. Heinrich leads across the ideological spectrum but is particularly strong with somewhat liberal voters (41 points) and very liberal ones (37 points) while holding a more modest 14 point advantage with moderates.
Wilson is staying competitive with Heinrich and Balderas in this increasingly Democratic state by peeling off 16-17% of the Democratic vote while losing just 4-5% of the Republican vote. What’s keeping her from the lead right now is a lack of appeal to independent voters. Her favorability with them is 36/45, worse than her overall spread of 40/45, and she basically ties both Democrats with them. She’s up 37-34 on Balderas, but down 40-37 to Heinrich. For a Republican to win New Mexico pretty much requires not just winning independents, but winning them by a healthy margin. Our final poll of the 2010 Governor’s race in New Mexico found Susana Martinez with a 60-34 lead over Diane Denish with them.
“Democrats have just a small lead in the New Mexico Senate race right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Heather Wilson has pretty much maxed out her Republican support, while either Martin Heinrich or Hector Balderas will have plenty of room to grow with Democrats. In the end it will be very difficult for the GOP to win this race.”
PPP surveyed 526 New Mexico voters voters from April 19th to 22nd, as well as 270 Democratic primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-4.3% and for the Democratic survey it’s +/-6.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hector Balderas?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin Heinrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Sowards?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Wilson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Hector Balderas and Republican
Greg Sowards, who would you vote for?
Hector Balderas ………………………………………. 42%
Greg Sowards…………………………………………. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
Greg Sowards, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 48%
Greg Sowards…………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Hector Balderas and Republican
Heather Wilson, who would you vote for?
Hector Balderas ………………………………………. 44%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
Heather Wilson, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 48%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 The Democratic candidates for US Senate are
Hector Balderas and Martin Heinrich. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
(Asked of 270 Democratic primary voters)
Hector Balderas ………………………………………. 27%
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 38%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 38%
White …………………………………………………….. 53%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
