Polls

Martinez, Udall ahead in New Mexico

| Tom Jensen

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Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s first poll of the 2014 elections in New Mexico finds both Susana Martinez and Tom Udall leading by margins similar to what they won by when they were elected in the first place.

Martinez was elected Governor 53-47 in 2010, and we find her leading challenger Gary King 47-42. Martinez has a 52/40 approval rating, largely consistent with where we’ve found her since she took office. She overcomes the strong Democratic advantage in the state by winning independents almost 2:1 at 53/27, and getting 24% crossover support from Democrats.

Martinez has wider leads over all the rest of the Democrats in the race. It’s 11 points over Lawrence Rael at 47/36, 14 points over Howie Morales and Linda Lopez at 48/34 and 50/36 respectively, and 16 points over Alan Webber at 48/32. King starts out as the pretty strong favorite to be the Democratic nominee though. He leads the primary field by over 20 points, getting 34% right now to 15% for Morales, 13% for Lopez, 7% for Rael, and 5% for Webber.

Tom Udall was elected by 22 points in 2008, and he starts out with leads in the 20-22 point range against both of his potential GOP opponents for this fall. He’s up 53/33 on Allen Weh, and 55/33 on David Clements. Udall sports a 52/33 approval rating, which puts him in the 80th percentile for popularity of all the Senators we’ve polled on nationally.

Barack Obama’s popularity in the state has declined significantly from 2012, as it has most everywhere. Only 44% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 48% who disapprove after he won New Mexico by 10 points in 2012.

“Right now it looks like New Mexico voters are pretty happy with the status quo,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Both Governor Martinez and Senator Udall have approval ratings over 50% and lead their potential opponents.”

PPP surveyed 674 registered voters from March 13th to 16th, including 327 Democratic primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.8%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.4%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Susana Martinez’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda Lopez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Howie Morales?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lawrence Rael?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alan Webber?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Susana Martinez and Democrat
Gary King, who would you vote for?
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 47%
Gary King……………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Susana Martinez and Democrat
Linda Lopez, who would you vote for?
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 50%
Linda Lopez ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Susana Martinez and Democrat
Howie Morales, who would you vote for?
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 48%
Howie Morales ………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Susana Martinez and Democrat
Lawrence Rael, who would you vote for?
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 47%
Lawrence Rael………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q12 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Susana Martinez and Democrat
Alan Webber, who would you vote for?
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 48%
Alan Webber …………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Udall’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Clements?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%

Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Allen Weh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q16 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Tom Udall and Republican David
Clements, who would you vote for?
Tom Udall……………………………………………….. 55%
David Clements ………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q17 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Tom Udall and Republican Allen
Weh, who would you vote for?
Tom Udall……………………………………………….. 53%
Allen Weh ………………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q18 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 11%

Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 22%

Q22 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 38%
White …………………………………………………….. 53%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

Q24 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda Lopez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Howie Morales?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lawrence Rael?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alan Webber?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%

Q6 The Democratic candidates for Governor are
Gary King, Linda Lopez, Howie Morales,
Lawrence Rael, and Alan Webber. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Gary King……………………………………………….. 34%
Linda Lopez ……………………………………………. 13%
Howie Morales ………………………………………… 15%
Lawrence Rael………………………………………… 7%
Alan Webber …………………………………………… 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 25%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 18%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 8%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%

Q9 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 56%
White …………………………………………………….. 34%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%

Q10 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

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