Raleigh, N.C. – New Mexico is not going to be a swing state this year. Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 15 points there in 2008, and the polling so far suggests a similar outcome is likely this fall. PPP’s newest poll finds Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 54-40 in the state. That’s changed little from when we polled the state in December and found Obama up 53-38.
Obama’s overwhelming support from three groups that have received a lot of attention lately- women, Hispanics, and young voters- makes it very hard for Romney to be competitive in New Mexico. Obama’s up 61-35 with women, 67-30 with Hispanics, and 56-35 with young voters.
Although Susana Martinez is one of the most popular Governors in the country with 54% of voters approving of her to 38% who disapprove, her presence on the ticket- which she’s pretty much ruled out anyway- wouldn’t do much to make Romney competitive. A Romney/Martinez slate still trails Obama/Biden by a 53-42 margin.
That still doesn’t take away from how impressive Martinez’s numbers are. Her 54% approval rating ranks her 9th in the country out of more than 40 Governors PPP has polled on in the last couple years and the fact that she’s doing it even as the state prepares to vote overwhelmingly for Obama is all the more striking.
Obama’s approval numbers in the state are on the rise. 53% of voters think he’s doing a good job to 44% who disapprove. That’s up from a 49/46 spread in December. The movement has been mostly due to a trend we’re seeing across the country- Democrats unifying around Obama. He was at just 72/21 with his party’s voters on the previous poll, but has now improved to 83/14 on that front. Many Democrats unhappy with Obama during his first three years in office have put those differences aside.
“New Mexico has turned sharply away from Republicans at the Presidential level over the last five years,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The Senate race will definitely be the marquee event in the state this year.”
PPP surveyed 526 New Mexico voters voters from April 19th to 22nd. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-4.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 35%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 15%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Susana Martinez’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 54%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 If the Democratic ticket this fall was Barack
Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice
President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt
Romney for President and Susana Martinez for
Vice President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 53%
Romney-Martinez…………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 38%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 38%
White …………………………………………………….. 53%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
