Polls

Presidential race tightens in New Mexico

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. —
Mitt Romney appears to have closed much of the 14 point gap between himself and President Obama that PPP measured in its last survey in April. Obama now leads by only 5 points in the land of enchantment, 49% to 44%. This comes along with a drastically reduced net approval rating for the president, down to even from a +9 mark 3 months ago. Romney’s favorability has seen a positive shift from an abysmal -22 rating in that survey, and now stands at -9, 41% to 50%.

This change comes in spite of relatively level support for the president among Independents at +9, compared to +11 from the April poll. Instead the movement comes from a drop in the support he receives from within his own party. 21% of Democrats said that they preferred Romney in the presidential race, up from 12% in April.

Obama has also lost ground among both Hispanics and whites. With Hispanics, a group that Obama must win by large margins in several competitive states this year, Obama has gone from a 37 point lead to a 22 point lead.

PPP also examined the race with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson in the mix. He draws 13% of voters, while reducing Obama’s lead further to +4. While among partisan voters Johnson only takes a significant share of Republicans, he wins 24% of Independents, eliminating the President’s lead with that group.

When the popular Governor Susana Martinez, who garners a +22 approval rating by herself, is included as Romney’s running mate, the race tightens further, with the Republican ticket within one point of the Democrats, 48% to 47%. The Romney-Martinez ticket enjoys the support of 25% of Democrats.

“Barack Obama continues to lead in New Mexico,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the race is a lot closer than it’s been in our previous looks at the state and a surprise selection of Susana Martinez as his running mate could put in in the toss up column.”

PPP surveyed 724 New Mexico voters from July 13th to 16th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.64%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q3 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q5 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 13%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Susana Martinez’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 56%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q7 If the Democratic ticket this fall was Barack
Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice
President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt
Romney for President and Susana Martinez for
Vice President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Martinez…………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q9 Do you agree or disagree with the Supreme
Court’s ruling on the health care reform bill?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 42%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q10 Do you support or oppose the new immigration
policy Barack Obama announced last month?
Support ………………………………………………….. 41%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q11 Given the following list of choices, how old do
you think Barack Obama is: 35 to 39, 40 to 44,
45 to 49, 50 to 54, 55 to 59, 60 to 64, 65 to 69,
70 to 74, or are you not sure?
35 to 39………………………………………………….. 4%
40 to 44………………………………………………….. 15%
45 to 49………………………………………………….. 43%
50 to 54………………………………………………….. 30%
55 to 59………………………………………………….. 3%
60 to 64………………………………………………….. 0%
65 to 69………………………………………………….. 0%
70 to 74………………………………………………….. 1%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q12 Given the same list of choices, how old do you
think Mitt Romney is?
35 to 39………………………………………………….. 1%
40 to 44………………………………………………….. 1%
45 to 49………………………………………………….. 13%
50 to 54………………………………………………….. 30%
55 to 59………………………………………………….. 30%
60 to 64………………………………………………….. 15%
65 to 69………………………………………………….. 3%
70 to 74………………………………………………….. 1%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 52%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%

Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 40%
White …………………………………………………….. 50%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 17%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%

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