Raleigh, N.C. – Despite popularity with the general electorate, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson has never been particularly well-liked with his home-state Republicans. He certainly outperforms his minuscule standing in the presidential primaries in other states, but still can muster no more than third here. And if he were to switch races and opt for a Senate bid, he still would have considerably less support than favorite Heather Wilson.
In his current campaign, Johnson has 11% behind national frontrunner Newt Gingrich’s 39% and Mitt Romney’s 14%, but ahead of the 8% earned by neighboring Texans Ron Paul and Rick Perry, as well as Michele Bachmann (6%) and usual fellow cellar dwellers Rick Santorum (3%) and Jon Huntsman (2%). Johnson actually leads 26-20-19 over Gingrich and Romney with moderates, but they are only 17% of the electorate. He gets only 10% with the 36% who say they are somewhat conservative and just 4% with the 43% plurality who are furthest to the right.
Johnson would do better in the smaller Senate field, occupied mostly by lesser-known figures than the presidential candidates he has to jockey to outshine. But he would still trail former Rep. Wilson by a 42-31 margin, with Lt. Gov. John Sanchez at 15% and two long shots at 3% or less. Johnson has gained a little since the previous poll, when he was down 43-22, with Sanchez at 18%. It is a similar ideological breakdown as in the White House race, with Johnson tied at 38% with Wilson among moderates, but falling to a 45-37 deficit with the center-right and to third at 18% to Wilson’s 43% and Sanchez’s 22% with the most right-wing voters.
In the current iteration of the race, without Johnson in the picture, Wilson has an even more dominant 55-20 lead over Sanchez, up from 52-24 in June. PPP will release general election Senate numbers tomorrow and general election President numbers on Friday.
PPP surveyed 300 usual New Mexico Republican primary voters from December 10th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Sanchez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Sowards?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Wilson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 Given the choices of Bill English, Gary
Johnson, John Sanchez, Greg Sowards, and
Heather Wilson, who would you most like to
see as the Republican Senate candidate next
year?
Bill English ……………………………………………… 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 31%
John Sanchez …………………………………………. 15%
Greg Sowards…………………………………………. 3%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 42%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q11 If the choices were just Bill English, John
Sanchez, Greg Sowards, and Heather Wilson,
who would you most like to see as the
Republican Senate candidate next year?
Bill English ……………………………………………… 3%
John Sanchez …………………………………………. 20%
Greg Sowards…………………………………………. 6%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 55%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 16%
Q12 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick
Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 11%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 14%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q13 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 48%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 52%
Q14 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 13%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 6%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 12%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 33%
Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 19%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q19 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1.If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
