Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s latest poll of the race to replace New Mexico Sen. Jeff Bingaman shows that, at least right now, the candidates most likely to win the respective party primaries are the two strongest general-election candidates, based on name recognition.
Rep. Martin Heinrich would defeat former Rep. Heather Wilson by a seven-point (47-40) margin if the election were today. Wilson is down two points from a 47-42 deficit when PPP last polled the state in June. Were Hector Balderas to defeat Heinrich in the primary, he would tie Wilson at 43%, a decline of six points in six months for the State Auditor. The other Republicans tested—Lt. Gov. John Sanchez and businessman Greg Sowards, both far less-recognized names than Wilson’s—would fall to Balderas by respective seven- and 14-point margins, and to Heinrich by 11 and 18.
Wilson does as well as she does because she earns 17% of the Democratic vote versus Heinrich and 20% versus Balderas. She has also turned a nine-point deficit versus Balderas and twelve points against Heinrich with independents into leads of 20 and six, and she has locked up more of the Republican vote. But independents are only 19% of voters, and Republicans 29%, versus Democrats’ 52%. Heinrich’s own improvement with Democrats more than makes up for his decline with Republicans and independents. The only area where Balderas outdoes Heinrich is with Republicans (10% versus 6%).
Balderas has moved from 24% to 30% in the primary since June, but Heinrich is holding steady at 47%. Yesterday, PPP showed Wilson dominating the GOP primary.
“Democrats continue to have a modest advantage in the New Mexico Senate contest,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it looks unlikely they’ll have the kind of cakewalk race they did in 2008 when Tom Udall was overwhelmingly elected to replace Pete Domenici.”
PPP surveyed 500 New Mexico voters, including 309 usual Democratic primary voters, from December 10th to 12th. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-4.4%, and +/-5.6% for the primary sample. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hector Balderas?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin Heinrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Sanchez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Sowards?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Wilson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Hector Balderas and Republican
John Sanchez, who would you vote for?
Hector Balderas ………………………………………. 41%
John Sanchez …………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Hector Balderas and Republican
Greg Sowards, who would you vote for?
Hector Balderas ………………………………………. 44%
Greg Sowards…………………………………………. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Hector Balderas and Republican
Heather Wilson, who would you vote for?
Hector Balderas ………………………………………. 43%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Hector Balderas and Republican
Gary Johnson, who would you vote for?
Hector Balderas ………………………………………. 38%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
John Sanchez, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 48%
John Sanchez …………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
Greg Sowards, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 49%
Greg Sowards…………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
Heather Wilson, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 47%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
Gary Johnson, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 43%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q15 Given the choices of Hector Balderas and
Martin Heinrich, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic Senate candidate next
year? (Asked of 309 Democratic primary
voters)
Hector Balderas ………………………………………. 30%
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 23%
Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 37%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 52%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q20 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 35%
White …………………………………………………….. 55%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
