Raleigh, N.C. – Until 2008, New Mexico was one of the closest swing states in the country. Al Gore won New Mexico by hundredths of a point in 2000, and George W. Bush won it by less than one point in 2004. President Obama changed all that; he trounced John McCain by 15 points in 2008, and in PPP’s latest poll of the state, it looks like he is set to do that again.
When PPP last polled the state six months ago, Obama led Mitt Romney by the same 49-42 margin by which Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole in 1996. In the intervening months, that lead has jumped to the same 15 points by which Obama beat McCain last time (53-38). Neighboring Texas’ Ron Paul actual comes closer by two points (51-38); nominal frontrunner Newt Gingrich lags by 17 (56-39); Michele Bachmann by 20 (56-36); and Rick Perry by 21 (56-35). As in most states lately, Paul is the only candidate to beat the president with independents (by eight points), while the others trail by four to 13.
PPP also took a look at the state’s former governor Gary Johnson, who may soon leave the GOP field for the Libertarian Party nomination. 45% see him favorably and 39% unfavorably—not overwhelming numbers, but golden compared to the other Republicans, whose favorability ratings range from 21% to 28%, and unfavorability figures from 54% to 67%. Johnson is the only candidate more popular than the president, who has a 49-46 approval spread in the state, down just slightly from 50-44 in June. As a third-party candidate, Johnson would draw 26-30% of the Republican votes, 12-16% of Democrats, and actually win independents with 31-33%. He would help the president to a 17-point win over either Gingrich or Romney, and at 20-23% of the overall vote, would nearly equal Romney’s 27% and Gingrich’s 28%.
“Barack Obama’s popularity is way down in New Mexico but voters don’t see any of the Republican candidates as serious alternatives,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It should stay in the Democratic column in 2012.”
PPP surveyed 500 New Mexico voters from December 10th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Newt
Gingrich, and Gary Johnson running as a
Libertarian, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 28%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 20%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q14 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Gary Johnson running as a
Libertarian, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 27%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 23%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 37%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 52%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 35%
White …………………………………………………….. 55%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
