Raleigh, N.C. – Bolstered by greater name recognition, Martin Heinrich has a strong lead over Hector Balderas in the Democratic Primary, 47-24. Although Heinrich is weaker among Hispanics, who make up 46% of the Democratic primary electorate, he still leads Balderas 39-36. However, since a majority of Democratic voters are still unwilling to give an opinion of Balderas, Balderas has more room to grow.
On the Republican side, voters are ready to give Heather Wilson a shot in the general in her second run for the senate. Even if Gary Johnson chooses to abandon his long shot presidential run and pursue a senate seat, he will start off with a major deficit in the primary. Wilson leads with 43% to Johnson’s 22%, John Sanchez’s 18%, Greg Sowards’ 4%, and Bill English’s 3%. Without Johnson, Wilson’s reaches majority support. She takes 52% to 24% for Sanchez, 8% for Sowards, and 4% for English. Wilson leads by strong margins across the Republican ideological spectrum. She leads Sanchez 48-19 among Moderates and 48-31 among very conservatives.
Michele Bachmann has surged to become Mitt Romney’s chief competitor in each state PPP has polled since the last Republican presidential debate, and New Mexico is no different. With Sarah Palin and Johnson in the race, Bachmann leads the pack with 21% to Romney’s 18%, Johnson’s 13%, Palin’s 11%, Herman Cain’s 10%, Tim Pawlenty’s 7%, Newt Gingrich’s 6%, and Ron Paul’s 5%. It’s hard to see how Johnson can win the nomination if he’s stuck in third place in his home state. Without Johnson, the race is tied with Bachmann and Romney each getting 22% of the vote. They are followed by Palin with 14%, Cain with 10%, Pawlenty and Paul with 7%, Gingrich with 4%, and Jon Huntsman with 3%. Without Palin or Johnson, Bachmann has the lead. She takes 27% to Romney’s 23%, Cain’s 12%, Paul’s 8%, Pawlenty’s 7%, Gingrich’s 6%, and Huntsman’s 4%. Bachmann’s advantage stems from her strength with very conservative voters where she leads Romney more than 2-1.
PPP surveyed 400 usual New Mexico Republican primary voters and 400 usual Democratic primary voters, with a +/-4.9 margin of error, from June 23th to 26th. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Sanchez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Sowards?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Wilson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 Given the choices of Bill English, Gary
Johnson, John Sanchez, Greg Sowards, and
Heather Wilson, who would you most like to
see as the Republican Senate candidate next
year?
Bill English ……………………………………………… 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 22%
John Sanchez …………………………………………. 18%
Greg Sowards…………………………………………. 4%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 43%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q11 If the choices were just Bill English, John
Sanchez, Greg Sowards, and Heather Wilson,
who would you most like to see as the
Republican Senate candidate next year?
Bill English ……………………………………………… 4%
John Sanchez …………………………………………. 24%
Greg Sowards…………………………………………. 8%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 52%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q12 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next
year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 22%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 4%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 14%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q13 If Sarah Palin didn’t run, and the choices were
just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 27%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 12%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 23%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 13%
Q14 If Gary Johnson ran for president, and the
choices were Michele Bachmann, Herman
Cain, Newt Gingrich, Gary Johnson, Sarah
Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney, who would you most like to see as
the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 21%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 13%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 11%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
Raleigh, N.C. – Like the Senate race, the presidential contest in New Mexico has gotten closer since PPP last polled this nominal swing state in February, but only two of the potential Republican nominees make it a single-digit race—the frontrunner and a favorite son dark horse.
Although both he and the President have gotten less popular by nine points on the margin in the last four months, former Governor Gary Johnson has still benefited, closing what was a 51-36 deficit in his home state by 12 points, to only 46-43. But a Johnson nomination is a long shot, and President Obama is in safer territory otherwise. He leads Mitt Romney, 49-42, down nine points from 53-37. Against everyone else, the president would at least replicate his 15-point victory over John McCain in 2008. He leads Tim Pawlenty, 51-36; Michele Bachmann, 52-37; Herman Cain, 52-36; and Sarah Palin, 56-36 (down nine from 62-33).
While independents gave the President leads of 25-51 points in the previous survey, and voted for him by 15 over McCain (according to exit polls), he now leads by only 16-26 against the more prominent candidates and trails Johnson by nine with unaffiliated voters. The president has also slipped a little with his own party, which makes up more than half of voters. While he was pulling 73-86% of Democrats in February and losing only 12-19% of them to the Republicans, he now locks up only 70-80% of his partisans and erodes 13-21%. But there is more crossover support on both sides; both Obama and McCain won 91% of their respective parties, and the president has bumped up from a 10% to a 16% approval rating with Republicans since February, and jumped from 7-12% of their vote to 10-18%.
“New Mexico doesn’t appear likely to return to the Republican column next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But if Mitt Romney wins the nomination it might at least be more competitive than it was in 2008.”
PPP surveyed 732 New Mexico voters from June 23th to 26th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
