Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Of 17 states polled, US voters most divided on TX, least on PA

Raleigh, N.C. – In its latest national poll, in the first of a three-part series, PPP asked American voters how they feel about 17 different states.  Of this first bunch, Texas is the most polarizing—it has both the highest favorability and highest unfavorability rating.  Pennsylvania matches Texas in favor and has much less disfavor, making it the most popular.  The least liked are Illinois and Mississippi, two of only three (along with Utah) which more voters see negatively than positively.

Polling the States

Over the next 3 months PPP will be polling the favorability of all 50 states as part of its national surveys, in order to determine the most popular and least popular ones in the country.  We started off this month with the first 17.  Here's how they stack up from best net favorability to worst:

State	Favorability	Spread
Pennsylvania	40/11	+29
Indiana	31/12	+19
Idaho	30/11	+19
Arizona	39/22	+17
Maryland	31/15	+16
New Mexico	30/15	+15
Georgia	31/20	+11
Minnesota	27/17	+10
Rhode Island	26/16	+10
Texas	40/31	+9
Massachusetts	35/27	+8
Arkansas	25/20	+5
Alabama	27/26	+1
Louisiana	24/24	Even
Utah	24/27	-3
Mississippi	22/28	-6
Illinois	19/29	-10

Burris' Prospects

Roland Burris is the latest name being bandied about as a possible Chicago Mayoral candidate but our most recent Illinois poll suggests he wouldn't be a formidable candidate there. 35% of voters in the city approved of the job he was doing as a Senator while 37% disapproved.

Certainly those are a lot better than his overall statewide numbers where only 18% of voters approved of him and 57% disapproved. But those are still pretty bad for a sitting Democratic Senator in an overwhelmingly Democratic city. For sake of comparison Dick Durbin's approval in the city was a 62/28 spread.

My guess is that Burris' best possible outcome as a Mayoral candidate would be making a runoff and getting blown out in it.

Obama Losing to Generic GOP in Swing States NH, PA, CO

Raleigh, N.C. – In California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania, President Obama’s margin for re-election against a generic Republican opponent has fallen by an average of over 18 points since his actual 2008 victories in those states.  He beat John McCain in these six states by an average of almost 17 points, but now trails by almost two.  The president can take heart, however, that these results come among the significantly more Republican electorate that turned out to vote against his party a week ago than the voters he will ask to re-up him for another four years.

GOP headed for wins in Illinois

Raleigh, N.C. – Republicans continue to lead the races for both Governor and Senator in Illinois, albeit by close margins.  Mark Kirk is ahead of Alexi Giannoulias 46-42 for the state's open Senate seat and Bill Brady is ahead of Pat Quinn 45-40 for Governor.

There are three main reasons Republicans are headed for big gains across the country this year and the Illinois races exemplify all three of them:

GOP ahead in Illinois

Republicans continue to lead the races for both Governor and Senator in Illinois, albeit by close margins. Mark Kirk is ahead of Alexi Giannoulias 46-42 for the state's open Senate seat and Bill Brady is ahead of Pat Quinn 45-40 for Governor.

There are three main reasons Republicans are headed for big gains across the country this year and the Illinois races exemplify all three of them:

-Independents are leaning strongly toward the GOP. Kirk leads Giannoulias 46-31 with them and Brady has a 45-27 advantage over Quinn with them.

-Republican voters are much more unified around their candidates this year than Democrats are. 87% of GOP identifiers are planning to vote for Kirk while only 78% of Democrats are planning to vote for Giannoulias. In the Governor's race 86% of Republicans support Brady while Quinn's only getting 75% support from his party.

-Republican voters are much more likely to head to the polls this year than Democrats. In 2008 Barack Obama won Illinois by 25 points. Those who say they're likely to vote this year only supported him by 14 points. That's a strong indication that many of the voters who were a part of the Obama 'wave' are staying at home this year.

No matter who wins either of these races Illinois voters will be left with a Governor and Senator that they don't like. Giannoulias' favorability is 35/49, Kirk's isn't much better at 39/45. Quinn's approval is 32/54 and that's a good thing for Brady because voters don't like him either, giving him a favorability of 39/45.

The presence of the third party candidates in the race seems to really be hurting Giannoulias. In a straight head to head between him and Kirk he trails by only a 46-45 margin. But a fair number of progressive voters who don't like Giannoulias but can't bring themselves to vote for Kirk are supporting the minor candidates in the contest.

As for Quinn he's made an impressive comeback over the course of the campaign and his prospects certainly look a lot better than they did back in the spring and summer. But at the end of the day it's an open question whether an incumbent Governor with a 32% approval rating can win reelection, no matter how blue their state or weak their opponent.

Full results here

Dem interest not picking up enough...

One of the biggest hopes for Democrats heading toward election day has been that the party's voters will get more engaged as the election comes closer, helping to mitigate its losses. A PPP analysis of 9 states where we've polled in October and also conducted a survey in August or September finds that the likely electorate for this fall is trending more Democratic- but not nearly to the extent the party needs.

On average in those places we're looking at a likely voter pool that's about 1.5 points more Democratic than a month or two ago. That's certainly better than no progress but it's not enough to make the difference in a particularly large number of races.

In 2 of the 9 states Democrats have seen a game changing increase in engagement. We've seen a 7 point Democratic shift in the likely electorate in West Virginia since mid-September and that's a big part of why we had John Raese ahead then and have Joe Manchin ahead now. When Manchin was viewed as a shoo in there didn't seem to be much of a sense of urgency from Democrats about voting. When the race started being perceived as a toss up that changed quite a bit.

The other state where there's been a big rise in Democratic vote likelihood is Pennsylvania, where there's been a 5 point shift from mid-August. Joe Sestak and Dan Onorato may lose anyway but their races are now looking markedly more competitive than they did over the summer, thanks mostly to the Democratic awakening.

In a couple of other key states though Democrats aren't showing any increased interest and in some cases could even be sliding backward. The likely electorate in Illinois in August was Obama +9 and when we polled there last weekend it was still Obama +9. Usually for a Republican to win in a blue state like Illinois they would need a massive advantage with independents and to win over a fair number of Democrats. Mark Kirk and Bill Brady are doing neither of those things but still in a position to win because of what's likely to be a massive drop in Democratic turnout in the state.

Another place where the enthusiasm gap could cost Democrats dearly is Florida. In August we saw a McCain +3 electorate there, right around the time of the Senate primary, while we've now seen that slide to McCain +7 in a state that Obama won by 3 points. If Rick Scott wins it's not going to be because he won over 2008 Obama voters- because he's not doing that- but because those Democratic leaners stayed home in such large numbers that it allowed him to eak out a narrow victory.

Here's the data on how the electorate has shifted in these states over the last couple months:

State	Most Recent Poll	First Likely Vote Poll	Shift
California	Obama +20	Obama +21	R+1
Kentucky	McCain +16	McCain +13	R+3
West Virginia	McCain +16	McCain +23	D+7
Colorado	Obama +3	Even	D+3
Illinois	Obama +9	Obama +9	None
Pennsylvania	Obama +4	McCain + 1	D+5
Florida	McCain +7	McCain +3	R+4
North Carolina	McCain +4	McCain +9	D+5
Alaska	McCain +14	McCain +16	D+2
Average	McCain +2.2	McCain +3.9	D+1.6

Quinn closes to within one of Brady for IL-Gov.

Raleigh, N.C. – Down by seven points in PPP’s last poll of the Illinois gubernatorial race in September, and by nine in August, incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn has shrunk Bill Brady’s lead to only one as the campaign nears its final turn toward Election Day.  This has occurred despite an increase in Republican voter enthusiasm.

Brady remains steady at 42%, but Quinn has won over the vast majority of previously undecided voters, bringing his support from 35% to 41% in three weeks.  Third-party candidates Scott Lee Cohen, Rich Whitney, and Lex Green remain minor factors, pulling 6%, 3%, and 1%, respectively.