Polls

Quinn in deep trouble, Dems favor Madigan

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Illinois Gov. Pat
Quinn enters his re-election cycle as the most unpopular governor that PPP has
measured, with only a quarter of his state’s voters approving of his job
performance and nearly two-thirds disapproving. 
He starts out as a slight underdog in hypothetical match-ups against
three unknown potential Republican challengers, getting no more than 40% of the
vote.  Should those candidates become
better-known, however, Quinn would probably be in perilous position.

Quinn trails State Sen. Kirk Dillard by seven points (37-44), and state
Treasurer Dan Rutherford by four (39-43), and leads rising star Congressman
Aaron Schock by only a point (40-39). 
But 61-65% of voters have no opinion of the three would-be governors, so
they have more to gain than does the incumbent.

Democrats would be best served, at least at this point, by nominating
popular state Attorney General Lisa Madigan, of whom 48% have a positive
opinion and only 32% a negative one, making her by far the best-liked and the
second best-known of six candidates on either side of the aisle, after
Quinn.  She tops Dillard and Rutherford
each by the same nine-point margin (46-37), and Schock by eight (46-38).

Doing not much better than Quinn is Bill Daley.  He is surprisingly no better-known than the
Republicans, but less popular, with a 12-24 favorability spread.  He trails Dillard by two points and
Rutherford by one, and tops Schock by five, but 25-30% are undecided.

Quinn is unpopular with Democratic primary voters (40-43 approval margin),
and if he chose to plow ahead with his bid, he would trail Daley head-to-head
by three points (37-34) and Madigan by a whopping 44 (64-20). 

“Lisa Madigan is the big x factor in this race,” said Dean Debnam, President
of Public Policy Polling. “If she decides to run she’ll be a big favorite but
otherwise Republicans should have a decent chance in this contest.”

PPP surveyed 500 Illinois voters, including an
oversample of 319 usual Democratic primary voters and 303 Republican primary
voters, from November 26th to 28th. The margin of error
for the overall survey is +/-4.4%, +/-5.5% for the Democratic portion, and
+/-5.6% for the GOP portion.  This poll
was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP
surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat
Quinn’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 25%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Daley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirk Dillard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lisa Madigan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Rutherford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Aaron Schock?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Kirk
Dillard, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 37%
Kirk Dillard ……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Dan
Rutherford, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 39%
Dan Rutherford ……………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Aaron
Schock, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 40%
Aaron Schock …………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat Bill Daley and Republican Kirk
Dillard, who would you vote for?
Bill Daley………………………………………………… 34%
Kirk Dillard ……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q12 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat Bill Daley and Republican Dan
Rutherford, who would you vote for?
Bill Daley………………………………………………… 37%
Dan Rutherford ……………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q13 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat Bill Daley and Republican Aaron
Schock, who would you vote for?
Bill Daley………………………………………………… 40%
Aaron Schock …………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q14 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat Lisa Madigan and Republican Kirk
Dillard, who would you vote for?
Lisa Madigan ………………………………………….. 46%
Kirk Dillard ……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q15 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat Lisa Madigan and Republican Dan
Rutherford, who would you vote for?
Lisa Madigan ………………………………………….. 46%
Dan Rutherford ……………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q16 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat Lisa Madigan and Republican Aaron
Schock, who would you vote for?
Lisa Madigan ………………………………………….. 46%
Aaron Schock …………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q17 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%

Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%

Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%

Q21 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 68%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q22 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 39%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat
Quinn’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Daley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lisa Madigan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q4 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were Bill Daley and Pat Quinn, who would you
vote for?
Bill Daley………………………………………………… 37%
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q5 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were Lisa Madigan and Pat Quinn, who would
you vote for?
Lisa Madigan ………………………………………….. 64%
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 38%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 12%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%

Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 59%
Man……………………………………………………….. 41%

Q8 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q9 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirk Dillard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Rutherford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Aaron Schock?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%

Q4 Given the choices of Bill Brady, Kirk Dillard,
Bruce Rauner, Dan Rutherford, Aaron Schock,
and Joe Walsh, who would you most like to see
as the Republican candidate for Governor in
2014?
Bill Brady………………………………………………… 14%
Kirk Dillard ……………………………………………… 12%
Bruce Rauner………………………………………….. 7%
Dan Rutherford ……………………………………….. 19%
Aaron Schock …………………………………………. 18%
Joe Walsh………………………………………………. 8%
Someone else…………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q5 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
just Kirk Dillard, Dan Rutherford, and Aaron
Schock, who would you vote for?
Kirk Dillard ……………………………………………… 17%
Dan Rutherford ……………………………………….. 27%
Aaron Schock …………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 22%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%

Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q8 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%

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