Raleigh, N.C. – 3 states voted
to legalize same sex marriage last month, and our new polls in New Jersey and
Illinois find those states could be next in line. New Jersey voters think same
sex marriage should be allowed in their state by a 53/36 margin, and Illinois
voters believe it should be permitted by a 47/42 spread.
A few things stand out on the New Jersey numbers. There are more Republicans
(21%) who support same sex marriage than Democrats (19%) who oppose it. There’s
also 54/36 favor for it among independents. 72% of voters in the state think
they should be allowed to vote on the issue.
In Illinois even though there’s only narrow overall support for same sex
marriage the numbers are 58% for and 37% against among voters under 45, another
sign that it’s just a matter of time given the big generational divide on the
issue. Black voters, perhaps following the lead of President Obama, think it
should be legal by a 60/16 spread. That’s a much wider margin than we see with
them nationally.
If Michelle Obama decided she wanted to follow the Hillary Clinton route
once her husband leaves office in 2016 and go to the Senate, she’d have the
upper hand on Mark Kirk. She leads him 51/40 in a hypothetical head to head.
Kirk’s approval numbers are ok with 34% of voters approving of him to 19% who
disapprove. But those numbers are no match for the first lady, who’s seen
positively by 60% of voters to 33% with a negative one.
President Obama’s approval in New Jersey is 59%, with just 38% of voters
disapproving of him. He gets a 74/21 spread for his handling of Hurricane
Sandy, although even on that specific issue just 38% of Republicans are willing
to give him any credit to 51% who express disapproval.
In the wake of the hurricane 52% of New Jersey voters say they’re ‘very
concerned’ about global warming, 28% say they’re ‘somewhat concerned,’ and 20%
say they’re ‘not concerned.’
PPP surveyed 600 New Jersey voters and 500
Illinois voters from November 26th to 28th. The margins
of error for the surveys are +/-4.0% and +/-4.4% respectively. This poll was not paid for or authorized by
any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Illinois Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 57%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Kirk’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michelle Obama?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Democrat Michelle Obama and Republican
Mark Kirk, who would you vote for?
Michelle Obama………………………………………. 51%
Mark Kirk………………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you think Illinois voters should be allowed to
vote on whether they think same-sex marriage
should be legal, or not?
Voters should be allowed to………………………. 68%
They should not ………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Illinois, or not?
It should …………………………………………………. 47%
It should not ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 Do you think President Obama should pardon
former Governor Rod Blagojevich, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 15%
He should not………………………………………….. 75%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 Do you think President Obama should pardon
former Governor George Ryan, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 20%
He should not………………………………………….. 70%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 Is your favorite NFL team the Chicago Bears,
Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers,
Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, New
York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, or St. Louis
Rams?
Bears …………………………………………………….. 63%
Cowboys………………………………………………… 1%
Packers………………………………………………….. 10%
Colts ……………………………………………………… 2%
Patriots ………………………………………………….. 1%
Giants ……………………………………………………. 1%
Steelers………………………………………………….. 4%
Rams …………………………………………………….. 2%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite team …… 17%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jay Cutler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q11 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 68%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 39%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
New Jersey Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 59%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of how Barack
Obama handled Hurricane Sandy?
Approve …………………………………………………. 74%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 Do you think New Jersey voters should be
allowed to vote on whether they think samesex
marriage should be legal, or not?
Voters should be allowed to………………………. 72%
They should not ………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in New Jersey, or not?
It should …………………………………………………. 53%
It should not ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned,
or not that concerned about global warming?
Very concerned……………………………………….. 52%
Somewhat concerned ………………………………. 28%
Not that concerned ………………………………….. 20%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Corzine?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democratic candidate ………………………………. 49%
Republican candidate ………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 Is your favorite NFL team the Baltimore
Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers,
New England Patriots, New York Giants, New
York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, or Pittsburgh
Steelers?
Ravens…………………………………………………… 3%
Cowboys………………………………………………… 4%
Packers………………………………………………….. 5%
Patriots ………………………………………………….. 4%
Giants ……………………………………………………. 37%
Jets ……………………………………………………….. 10%
Eagles……………………………………………………. 16%
Steelers………………………………………………….. 4%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite team …… 17%
Q9 Is your favorite NBA team the Boston Celtics,
Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles
Lakes, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, or
Philadelphia 76ers?
Celtics……………………………………………………. 7%
Nets ………………………………………………………. 9%
Bulls………………………………………………………. 7%
Lakers……………………………………………………. 6%
Heat ………………………………………………………. 3%
Knicks ……………………………………………………. 20%
76ers……………………………………………………… 15%
Someone else…………………………………………. 5%
Don’t have a favorite team………………………… 28%
Q10 Do you support or oppose Rutgers’ move from
the Big East to the Big Ten?
Support ………………………………………………….. 39%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q11 Do you consider yourself to be a fan of Rutgers
sports, or not?
Rutgers fan …………………………………………….. 35%
Not a Rutgers fan…………………………………….. 65%
Q12 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 26%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 10%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 25%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q17 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 42%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
