Raleigh, N.C. – Down by seven points in PPP’s last poll of the Illinois gubernatorial race in September, and by nine in August, incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn has shrunk Bill Brady’s lead to only one as the campaign nears its final turn toward Election Day. This has occurred despite an increase in Republican voter enthusiasm.
Brady remains steady at 42%, but Quinn has won over the vast majority of previously undecided voters, bringing his support from 35% to 41% in three weeks. Third-party candidates Scott Lee Cohen, Rich Whitney, and Lex Green remain minor factors, pulling 6%, 3%, and 1%, respectively.
The closure, despite the pro-GOP enthusiasm gap increasing from 10 to 17 points, comes largely because undecided Democrats and independents are moving toward the incumbent. In September, Quinn was suffering from 15% of his party remaining undecided in the race, to only 5% of the unified Republicans. As expected, almost all of those undecideds have come home. Because Brady takes 13% of Democrats to Quinn’s 2% of Republicans, Brady does still have a party-unity edge, but Quinn has also turned a 12-point deficit with independents to a three-point advantage as many of the undecided in that group, and those supporting the minor candidates, have gravitated to Quinn.
Cohen’s and Green’s presence on the ballot could end up hurting Brady, as the Republican would beat Quinn in a head-to-head, 49-44. Despite some of their former independent supporters leaving them for Quinn, if those two and Whitney were not in the race, Brady would have a 48-40 lead with independents against just Quinn, versus his 37-40 deficit in the full ballot measure.
“The fact that Pat Quinn has pulled this race into a tie is remarkable given how unpopular he is,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Bill Brady was a lot better off when voters didn’t know who he was and the more exposure he’s received the closer Pat Quinn has pulled.”
PPP surveyed 557 likely Illinois voters from October 14th to 16th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Bill Brady, Democrat Pat Quinn, Independent
Scott Lee Cohen, Libertarian Lex Green and
Green Party candidate Rich Whitney. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Bill Brady………………………………………………… 42%
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 41%
Scott Lee Cohen ……………………………………… 6%
Lex Green………………………………………………. 1%
Rich Whitney…………………………………………… 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 If the only choices for Governor were
Republican Bill Brady and Democrat Pat
Quinn, who would you vote for?
Bill Brady………………………………………………… 49%
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat
Quinn’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 32%
Disapprove………… 54%
Not sure ……………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Brady?
Favorable……………. 39%
Unfavorable ………… 44%
Not sure ……………… 17%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michael Madigan?
Favorable……………. 18%
Unfavorable ………… 52%
Not sure ……………… 30%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 34%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
