Raleigh, N.C. – Three years ago, Pat Quinn surprised some by beating Bill Brady for a full term as governor by less than a point in a terrible turnout environment for Democrats and following the impeachment of his predecessor, Rod Blagojevich. To boot, Quinn had a 32-54 approval rating of his own. His numbers since then have only gone down. In PPP’s latest poll, he has a 34-60 approval spread.
In the short term, however, Quinn’s numbers are trending slightly upward. A year ago, PPP measured him at 25-64, making him then the least popular governor in the country. His 13-point marginal improvement has coincided with an improving re-election picture. He trailed Dan Rutherford by four points and Kirk Dillard by seven in the previous poll, but he now ties Dillard at 39%, and trails Rutherford by two points, 39-41. Quinn also ties Brady at 41% and leads Bruce Rauner by three (41-38). Still, 39-41% of the vote is not a strong position in which to start.
Unlike Quinn, Dick Durbin’s 46-40 approval spread is down 11 points on the margin from the 51-34 PPP measured a year ago. But he is in good company. President Obama’s own approval numbers in his home state are only 50-46, still one of his ten best states. But that is down a net 12 points from last November (57-41). The similar decline for Durbin and Obama is likely a result of the current national mood which has sent a lot of Democrats’ and Republicans’ numbers sharply downward in recent months.
Despite this trend, Durbin remains in fine shape. He has 51-52% of the vote, and leads three potential Republican challengers by 15 to 18 points. Perennial candidate Jim Oberweis is the best-known (52% name recognition versus 15-16% for the other two), and therefore does the best, trailing 51-36. Last November, Durbin led a generic GOP candidate by a similar 52-38 margin, so this probably represents roughly Republicans’ ceiling unless the political environment gets even more toxic for Democrats nationally.
“The Illinois Governor’s race appears to be a toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That’s bad for Democrats given the blue leaning nature of the state, but it could be a lot worse given where Quinn’s approval numbers are.”
PPP surveyed 557 Illinois voters, including an oversample of 375 usual Republican primary voters, from November 22nd to 25th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 4.2% and +/-5.1% for the GOP sample. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat
Quinn’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Brady?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirk Dillard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rahm Emanuel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Hynes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lisa Madigan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Rauner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Rutherford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Bill
Brady, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 41%
Bill Brady………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Kirk
Dillard, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 39%
Kirk Dillard ……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Bruce
Rauner, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 41%
Bruce Rauner………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Dan
Rutherford, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 39%
Dan Rutherford ……………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Rahm Emanuel and Republican Dan
Rutherford, who would you vote for?
Rahm Emanuel ……………………………………….. 40%
Dan Rutherford ……………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Dan Hynes and Republican Dan
Rutherford, who would you vote for?
Dan Hynes ……………………………………………… 34%
Dan Rutherford ……………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q16 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Lisa Madigan and Republican Dan
Rutherford, who would you vote for?
Lisa Madigan ………………………………………….. 45%
Dan Rutherford ……………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q17 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick
Durbin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chad Koppie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Oberweis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q20 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Doug Truax?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 85%
Q21 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Chad
Koppie, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 52%
Chad Koppie…………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q22 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Jim
Oberweis, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 51%
Jim Oberweis ………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q23 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Doug
Truax, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 51%
Doug Truax …………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q24 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q25 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q26 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q27 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%
Q28 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q29 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 39%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Brady?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirk Dillard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Rauner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Rutherford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chad Koppie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 87%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Oberweis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Doug Truax?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 89%
Q8 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Bill Brady, Kirk Dillard, Bruce Rauner, and Dan
Rutherford. If the primary was today, who
would you vote for?
Bill Brady………………………………………………… 17%
Kirk Dillard ……………………………………………… 10%
Bruce Rauner………………………………………….. 24%
Dan Rutherford ……………………………………….. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q9 Given the choices of Chad Koppie, William
Lee, Jim Oberweis, Joe Ruiz, and Doug Truax,
who would you most like to be the Republican
candidates for Senate next year?
Chad Koppie…………………………………………… 3%
William Lee …………………………………………….. 4%
Jim Oberweis ………………………………………….. 42%
Joe Ruiz…………………………………………………. 1%
Doug Truax …………………………………………….. 7%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 42%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 43%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 29%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 43%
Man……………………………………………………….. 57%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%