Polls

No worries for Durbin

| Dustin Ingalls


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
As yesterday’s
release showed, there is some concern about keeping the Illinois governor’s
mansion in Democratic hands, but its senior U.S. Senate seat is probably safe,
as long as its current occupant, Majority Whip Dick Durbin, wants it.  More than half of Illinoisans (51%) approve
of Durbin’s job performance, and about a third (34%) disapprove.  In a generic re-elect test, Durbin gets 52%
of the vote to an unnamed Republican’s 38%.

Durbin is in such good shape because 20% of Republicans support his work in
the Senate, and 13% of them say they will probably vote for him in two
years.  Independents are split right down
the middle on both fronts, including 42-42 on the re-elect.

Faced with actual opponents, Durbin does even better, though slightly more Republicans
and independents are undecided than Democrats. 
Outgoing Rep. Bob Dold comes closest to matching the ideal Republican’s
standing, with a 21-point deficit (54-33). 
Failed 2010 Tea Party contender Patrick Hughes is down 22 (53-31), and
retiring Rep. Joe Walsh lags by 25 (54-29).

In all three actual head-to-heads, Durbin maintains the same 13% of the
GOP’s support, and outdoes his 82% level with his own party by two or three
points.  The main difference is with
independents.  He jumps up two to five
points with them for leads of nine points over Dold and Hughes and 18 over
Walsh.

Granted, Hughes is a complete unknown—88% have no opinion of him, so he is
truly generic.  Still only 46% have an
opinion on Walsh (14% favorable and 32% unfavorable), and 49% on Dold (21-28).  So they stand more to gain than Durbin
does.  But when name recognition is
equalized at this point, Durbin’s advantage actually increases to leads of 25
to 35 points, so combined with his strength and the Republicans’ relative
unpopularity, he is unlikely to get much if any more vulnerable.

“It should come as no surprise, but this is not a seat Republicans can
expect to target next cycle,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling.

PPP surveyed 500 Illinois voters from November
26th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey is
+/-4.4%.  This poll was not paid for or
authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted
through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick
Durbin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q2 Generally speaking, in 2014, if the Democratic
candidate for Senate was Dick Durbin, would
you vote for him or his Republican opponent?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 52%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Dold?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Patrick Hughes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 88%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Walsh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Bob
Dold, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 54%
Bob Dold………………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Patrick
Hughes, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 53%
Patrick Hughes ……………………………………….. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Joe
Walsh, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 54%
Joe Walsh………………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q9 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%

Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 68%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 39%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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