Raleigh, N.C. – In California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania, President Obama’s margin for re-election against a generic Republican opponent has fallen by an average of over 18 points since his actual 2008 victories in those states. He beat John McCain in these six states by an average of almost 17 points, but now trails by almost two. The president can take heart, however, that these results come among the significantly more Republican electorate that turned out to vote against his party a week ago than the voters he will ask to re-up him for another four years.
Obama leads in the blue states: 51-44 in California, 50-42 in Connecticut, and 49-45 in Illinois; and trails in the more purple states: 45-50 in Colorado, 40-54 in New Hampshire, and 42-52 in Pennsylvania. Besides the enthusiasm gap, Obama is suffering from the same two other problems many of his party’s candidates had in the midterms: defections by the independents who favored him and the Democrats in 2008, and a slightly less unified party base than the Republicans. Those trends may or may not hold two years from now.
In some cases more than twice as many Obama voters are pledging for his GOP opponent as McCain supporters for Obama, but even in that environment, things would improve considerably with a shift in turnout toward a presidential-year model. If the partisan breakdown of the 2012 electorate looked more like 2008’s, the president would improve 13 points over his generic re-elect to lead 58-38 in California (still down from his 61-37 2008 win). He would also be up one point to 51-42 in Connecticut (61-38), and up nine points to 54-41 in Illinois (62-37). He would lag in Colorado only 47-48 (54-45), a four-point improvement; New Hampshire 45-48 (54-45), an eleven-point improvement; and Pennsylvania 46-49 (55-44), a seven-point improvement.
“President Obama looks weak now even in the bluest of states, but the reality is that not only will he be facing a more favorable electorate than 2010’s was, but he will be running against an actual person, not the nameless, faceless, flawless generic ideal who now looks so good to voters,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
Looking ahead to who that actual GOP nominee may be, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee appear strong in these six states, but the four frontrunners are very closely bunched in every state but all-important, first-primary New Hampshire, where Romney has a home and where PPP has consistently found him dominating. There, the former Massachusetts governor takes 40% of the vote to Huckabee’s 13%, and Newt Gingrich’s and Sarah Palin’s 10%. Romney also leads with 25% in delegate-rich California over Palin’s 18%, and Huckabee’s and Gingrich’s 15%. Romney also tops the field in Colorado, with 22% to Gingrich’s and Palin’s 17% and Huckabee’s 14%, and Connecticut, with 28% to Huckabee’s 15%, Gingrich’s 14%, and Palin’s 11%. In Illinois, Huckabee is barely ahead, with 18% to Gingrich’s 17%, Palin’s 14%, and Romney’s 12%, but he has a clearer advantage in Pennsylvania, with 23% to Romney’s and Palin’s 16% and Gingrich’s 15%. Possible, currently far less known contenders John Thune, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitch Daniels received support in the low single digits in each state.
PPP surveyed 882 likely 2010 California voters, including 317 typical Republican primary voters, from October 29th to 31st, for a +/- 3.3% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 5.5% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 1,059 likely 2010 Colorado voters, including 341 typical Republican primary voters, from October 30th to 31st, for a +/- 3.0% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 5.3% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 759 likely 2010 Connecticut voters, including 180 typical Republican primary voters, from October 27th to 29th, for a +/- 3.6% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 7.3% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 814 likely 2010 Illinois voters, including 255 typical Republican primary voters, from October 30th to 31st, for a +/- 3.4% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 6.1% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 1,308 likely 2010 New Hampshire voters, including 582 typical Republican primary voters, from October 27th to 29th, for a +/- 2.7% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 4.1% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 772 likely 2010 Pennsylvania voters, including 283 typical Republican primary voters, from October 30th to 31st, for a +/- 3.5% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 5.8% for the GOP primary sample. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
California Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 51%
Republican
opponent ……………44%
Undecided…………. 5%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………48%
Republican
primaries ……………41%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………11%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 1%
Newt Gingrich ……. 15%
Mike Huckabee ….. 15%
Sarah Palin ……….. 18%
Tim Pawlenty……… 2%
Mike Pence ……….. 3%
Mitt Romney………. 25%
John Thune ……….. 1%
Someone
else/Undecided …..19%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q8 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If Asian, press 4.
If other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 23%
White …………………………………………………….. 62%
African-American …………………………………….. 7%
Asian……………………………………………………… 5%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Colorado Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 45%
Republican
opponent ……………50%
Undecided…………. 5%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………37%
Republican
primaries ……………38%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………25%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 1%
Newt Gingrich ……. 17%
Mike Huckabee ….. 14%
Sarah Palin ……….. 17%
Tim Pawlenty……… 6%
Mike Pence ……….. 3%
Mitt Romney………. 22%
John Thune ……….. 2%
Someone
else/Undecided …..18%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q8 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Connecticut Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 50%
Republican
opponent ……………42%
Undecided…………. 8%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………41%
Republican
primaries ……………27%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………31%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 4%
Newt Gingrich ……. 14%
Mike Huckabee ….. 15%
Sarah Palin ……….. 11%
Tim Pawlenty……… 5%
Mike Pence ……….. 5%
Mitt Romney………. 28%
John Thune ……….. 2%
Someone
else/Undecided …..18%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 35%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 59%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 52%
Conservative…………………………………………… 28%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 27%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Illinois Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 49%
Republican
opponent ……………45%
Undecided…………. 6%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………47%
Republican
primaries ……………38%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………15%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 6%
Newt Gingrich ……. 17%
Mike Huckabee ….. 18%
Sarah Palin ……….. 14%
Tim Pawlenty……… 7%
Mike Pence ……….. 1%
Mitt Romney………. 12%
John Thune ……….. 2%
Someone
else/Undecided …..23%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 45%
Conservative…………………………………………… 35%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q8 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
New Hampshire Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 40%
Republican
opponent ……………54%
Undecided…………. 7%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………39%
Republican
primaries ……………49%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………12%
Q3 (GOP primary voters only) If the Republican
candidates for President in 2012 were Mitch
Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah
Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Pence, Mitt Romney,
and John Thune who would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 1%
Newt Gingrich ……. 10%
Mike Huckabee ….. 13%
Sarah Palin ……….. 10%
Tim Pawlenty……… 4%
Mike Pence ……….. 3%
Mitt Romney………. 40%
John Thune ……….. 1%
Someone
else/Undecided …..19%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 47%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 28%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 36%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Pennsylvania Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 42%
Republican
opponent ……………52%
Undecided…………. 6%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
46%
Democratic
primaries ……………46%
Republican
primaries ……………43%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………11%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 2%
Newt Gingrich ……. 15%
Mike Huckabee ….. 23%
Sarah Palin ……….. 16%
Tim Pawlenty……… 2%
Mike Pence ……….. 2%
Mitt Romney………. 16%
John Thune ……….. 1%
Someone
else/Undecided …..22%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 3%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
