Raleigh, N.C. – Republicans continue to lead the races for both Governor and Senator in Illinois, albeit by close margins. Mark Kirk is ahead of Alexi Giannoulias 46-42 for the state’s open Senate seat and Bill Brady is ahead of Pat Quinn 45-40 for Governor.
There are three main reasons Republicans are headed for big gains across the country this year and the Illinois races exemplify all three of them:
-Independents are leaning strongly toward the GOP. Kirk leads Giannoulias 46-31 with them and Brady has a 45-27 advantage over Quinn with them.
-Republican voters are much more unified around their candidates this year than Democrats are. 87% of GOP identifiers are planning to vote for Kirk while only 78% of Democrats are planning to vote for Giannoulias. In the Governor’s race 86% of Republicans support Brady while Quinn’s only getting 75% support from his party.
-Republican voters are much more likely to head to the polls this year than Democrats. In 2008 Barack Obama won Illinois by 25 points. Those who say they’re likely to vote this year only supported him by 14 points. That’s a strong indication that many of the voters who were a part of the Obama ‘wave’ are staying at home this year.
No matter who wins either of these races Illinois voters will be left with a Governor and Senator that they don’t like. Giannoulias’ favorability is 35/49, Kirk’s isn’t much better at 39/45. Quinn’s approval is 32/54 and that’s a good thing for Brady because voters don’t like him either, giving him a favorability of 39/45.
“The Illinois races are pretty emblematic of the country as a whole this year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters don’t like any of their choices but they like the Democratic ones even less than the Republican ones and because of that look like they’ll give the GOP a chance to do better in these offices.”
PPP surveyed 814 likely Illinois voters on October 30th and 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Alexi
Giannoulias, Republican Mark Kirk, Green
Party candidate LeAlan Jones, and Libertarian
Mike Labno. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Alexi Giannoulias …………………………………….. 42%
Mark Kirk………………………………………………… 46%
LeAlan Jones ………………………………………….. 3%
Mike Labno …………………………………………….. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alexi Giannoulias?
Favorable ………….. 35%
Unfavorable……….. 49%
Not sure ……………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Kirk?
Favorable ………….. 39%
Unfavorable……….. 45%
Not sure ……………. 16%
Q4 If the candidates for Senate were only
Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican
Mark Kirk, who would you vote for?
Alexi Giannoulias .. 45%
Mark Kirk…………… 46%
Undecided…………. 9%
Q5 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Bill Brady, Democrat Pat Quinn, Independent
Scott Lee Cohen, Libertarian Lex Green and
Green Party candidate Rich Whitney. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Bill Brady………………………………………………… 45%
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 40%
Scott Lee Cohen ……………………………………… 4%
Lex Green………………………………………………. 2%
Rich Whitney…………………………………………… 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat
Quinn’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 32%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Brady?
Favorable ………….. 39%
Unfavorable……….. 45%
Not sure ……………. 17%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor were only
Republican Bill Brady and Democrat Pat
Quinn, who would you vote for?
Bill Brady………………………………………………… 49%
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Roland Burris’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 18%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick
Durbin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q13 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 45%
Conservative…………………………………………… 35%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q18 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 15%
No …………………………………………………………. 85%
