Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

NC sees Tea Party in better light than Occupy Wall St.

Raleigh, N.C. – North Carolina is the rare state where the Tea Party is seen more positively than the much newer Occupy Wall Street movement.  Asked to choose between the two, 43% of Tar Heels prefer the Tea Party, and 40% O.W.S.  Independents say they are bigger fans of the Tea Party by a 45-38 margin, and Republicans (11-76) are more supportive of the Tea Party than Democrats of O.W.S. (63-18).  At 50-33, voters under 30 are the only age group with a higher opinion of O.W.S. than the Tea Party.  The left’s movement is preferred over the right’s in the Triangle area (919), but the Tea Party is favored in every other area code.  Overall, 35% support O.W.S.’s goals, and 41% oppose them, compared to 40-47 for the Tea Party.

North Carolinians on their Neighbors

Election days are serious stuff so we thought it would be good to release one of our lighter poll this afternoon- one looking at how North Carolinians feel about their neighboring states.

-The neighbor North Carolinians have the highest opinion of is Virginia. 54% of voters see it favorably to only 14% with a negative opinion. Every demographic group we track has pretty positive feelings toward Virginia.

The neighbor North Carolinians have the lowest opinion of is South Carolina, although it still comes out alright with 43% of voters holding a favorable view of it to 24% with a negative one. The problem for South Carolina is that both Democrats (27/37) and African Americans (28/36) see it unfavorably. It's interesting to note though that the North Carolinians closest to South Carolina- those in Metro Charlotte- give it its best reviews at 52/25.  Folks in the Triangle have the dimmest view at 38/33. Maybe they just need to get to know it better.

Tennessee (48/14) and Georgia (47/17) both fall in between the Virginia and South Carolina numbers.

Of 17 states polled, US voters most divided on TX, least on PA

Raleigh, N.C. – In its latest national poll, in the first of a three-part series, PPP asked American voters how they feel about 17 different states.  Of this first bunch, Texas is the most polarizing—it has both the highest favorability and highest unfavorability rating.  Pennsylvania matches Texas in favor and has much less disfavor, making it the most popular.  The least liked are Illinois and Mississippi, two of only three (along with Utah) which more voters see negatively than positively.

Polling the States

Over the next 3 months PPP will be polling the favorability of all 50 states as part of its national surveys, in order to determine the most popular and least popular ones in the country.  We started off this month with the first 17.  Here's how they stack up from best net favorability to worst:

State	Favorability	Spread
Pennsylvania	40/11	+29
Indiana	31/12	+19
Idaho	30/11	+19
Arizona	39/22	+17
Maryland	31/15	+16
New Mexico	30/15	+15
Georgia	31/20	+11
Minnesota	27/17	+10
Rhode Island	26/16	+10
Texas	40/31	+9
Massachusetts	35/27	+8
Arkansas	25/20	+5
Alabama	27/26	+1
Louisiana	24/24	Even
Utah	24/27	-3
Mississippi	22/28	-6
Illinois	19/29	-10

GOP candidates unpopular at home

We've done polls in Massachusetts and Minnesota over the last couple weeks and found that Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Michele Bachmann are all unpopular in their home states. That's par for the course with this GOP Presidential field- we've polled on 9 of the candidates or potential candidates in their home states and only one of them is well liked- Gary Johnson in New Mexico.

That's probably not a good sign for any of these candidates. If the voters who know them best don't care for them, why would others around the country? Certainly you don't have to be popular in your home state to get elected President but it would be a good sign if you were.

Here's how they stack up from most popular to least popular:

Candidate (State)	Favorability	Net
Gary Johnson (New Mexico)	44/32	+12
Newt Gingrich (Georgia)	39/47	-8
Herman Cain (Georgia)	28/36	-8
Rick Perry (Texas)	42/50	-8
Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania)	37/47	-10
Mitt Romney (Massachusetts)	40/52	-12
Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota)	40/53	-13
Sarah Palin (Alaska)	33/58	-25
Michele Bachmann (Minnesota)	33/59	-26

Southern voters glad North won Civil War

Raleigh, N.C. – A lot has been made recently about southern attitudes toward race and the old Confederacy 150 years after the start of the Civil War, fueled in part by PPP’s recent poll which showed that more Mississippi Republican primary voters think interracial marriage should be illegal than legal.  But for the most part, residents of three southern states—Mississippi, North Carolina, and Georgia—prove that American culture and politics are becoming less and less regional in the digital age.  This is especially true in the latter two states, which have experienced a large influx of immigrants from the North and Midwest in the last 20 to 30 years.

Many still fighting the Civil War...

The Civil War may have come to a close almost 150 years ago but Republicans in three Southern states still aren't sure its outcome was a good thing. Less than half of GOP voters in Georgia, North Carolina, and Mississippi are glad that the North won the Civil War:

-In Georgia 47% of Republicans are content with the Union victory, while 31% wish the South had won. Democrats (58/17) and independents (54/19) are both strongly supportive of the North, making the overall numbers 53/23.

-In North Carolina GOP voters are almost evenly divided on the outcome of the war with 35% glad for the North's victory, 33% ruing the South's loss, and 32% taking neither side. Democrats (55/15) and independents (57/14) have similar numbers to Georgia but due to the greater ambivalence of Republicans about the northern victory, overall less than half of Tar Heel voters (48%) are glad the Union won to 21% who wish the Confederacy had.

-In Mississippi no group of the electorate seems all that enthused about the North having won. Republicans, by a 38/21 margin, outright wish the South had won. Democrats (39/22) and independents (49/15) side with the North but compared to those voter groups in North Carolina and Georgia they're pretty ambivalent. Overall just 34% of voters in the state are glad the Union prevailed to 27% who wish the rebels had been victorious.

A few weeks ago we released numbers showing that a plurality of Republicans in Mississippi think interracial marriage should be illegal. Democrats there think it should be legal by a 68/18 margin and independents do so 56/21, making the overall numbers in the state 54% who think it should be legal to 28% who believe it should be illegal.

GOP voters in North Carolina and Georgia don't have the same hang up about interracial marriage that their peers in Mississippi do. In Georgia Republicans think it should be legal by a 52/29 spread. Democrats do so 67/20 and independents do 74/13, making the overall numbers 62/22. And in North Carolina Republicans think it should be legal by a 55/30 spread. Democrats do so 74/15 and independents do 80/11, making the the overall numbers 68/20.

Full results here

Georgia Sports Poll

On Fridays at PPP we like to clean out the fridge so here are the numbers about sports in Georgia from the poll we did there a couple weeks ago that we just haven't gotten around to releasing yet:

-Georgia Tech fans aren't really on board with the school's decision to fire Paul Hewitt...and they show pretty much no enthusiasm about new hire Brian Gregory. Only 29% of self described Yellow Jacket fans that we surveyed said they agreed with the decision to let Hewitt go compared to 31% who said they think he should have been retained and 40% who had no opinion. Of course the 40% with no opinion may be evidence it was a good decision to fire Hewitt because it reflects the ambivalence much of the fan base was feeling toward basketball by the end of Hewitt's tenure, as reflected by pretty paltry home crowds this year.

One thing's for sure- there's no buzz about bringing Brian Gregory on board. Only 14% of fans think he was a good hire to 7% who think he was a bad hire and a whooping 79% who are reserving judgment. He has a lot of proving himself to do to get in good with the fan base.

-When Braves fans look back on the work Bobby Cox did during his time with the franchise 86% express approval to only 5% who disapprove. Those are the best poll numbers we've ever found for a sports figure. To put into perspective how good they are, last summer we did approval polls on 18 baseball managers and the one who did best with his fan base was Mike Scioscia of the Angels at 65% approval. Bobby exceeds that number by more than 20%.

Fellow future Hall of Famers Tony LaRussa and Joe Torre were at 60% and 53% respectively with Cardinals and Dodgers fans last summer. Cox also stacks up well to some heroes in other sports- Mike Krzyzewski's approval rating with Duke fans is 77% and Roy Williams' with North Carolina fans is 64%.

-Braves fans are mixed between optimism and reserving judgment when it comes to the hire of Fredi Gonzalez as Cox's replacement. 45% of fans think Gonzalez was a good hire, 7% think he was a bad hire, and 48% haven't formed an opinion yet. This poll was taken the first weekend of the season so it's possible Gonzalez would have worse numbers now after the team's poor start but only your most hardcore of message board/talk radio type fans seem like they would have turned against him already based on two mediocre weeks to start the season.

-Georgia and Georgia Tech fans are both pretty content with their football coaches. Mark Richt has a 59/15 approval rating with fans of the Bulldogs and Paul Johnson is at 53/9 with Yellow Jackets fans. The Richt numbers are particularly interesting- even though the program has been down a little bit the last couple of years his fan base still seems to be pretty content with him.

-And finally Mark Fox, Georgia's basketball coach, is also in good standing with his school's fans at a 48/10 approval spread.

Full results here