Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s new Georgia poll finds that with a pretty anonymous set of potential
Republican candidates, Democrats might have a real shot at making the Senate
race competitive next year.
PPP looked at match ups involving 5 Republicans (Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey,
Karen Handel, Jack Kingston and Tom Price) and 3 Democrats (John Barrow, Jason
Carter, and Max Cleland). Cleland is the only person in the whole bunch who has
more than 50% statewide name recognition, with 48% of voters rating him
favorably to 29% with an unfavorable view.
If Cleland could be coaxed into the race he would start out with a lead
over every Republican we tested him against. He’s up 1 against Price, 3 against
Kingston, 5 against Gingrey, and 7 against Broun and Handel. Democratic
prospects for winning the seat might not hinge on what could be an unlikely
Cleland candidacy though. John Barrow trails by an average of only 4/10ths of a
point against the Republicans we tested- leading Gingrey and Handel by 1, tying
Broun, trailing Price by 1, and trailing Kingston by 3. Carter trails the
quintet of Republicans we tested by an average of 3.8 points- he’s down 2 to
Broun and Gingrey, 4 to Handel, 5 to Price, and 6 to Kingston.
“Obviously it’s been a long time since Democrats won a major election in
Georgia,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But if they
nominate a strong candidate next year and the Republicans nominate someone to
the far right, this could be one of their few pick up opportunities in a year
where the Senate map sets up well for the GOP.”
It’s hard to say much about the Republican contest for Senate right now
other than that it’s a complete tossup. We tested 7 potential candidates and 6
of them all clustered between 10 and 15% in our polling- Handel and Kingston
get 15%, Casey Cagle comes in at 13%, Gingrey gets 12%, Broun 11%, Price 10%,
and Tom Graves 3%. The plurality goes to undecided at 20%.
PPP surveyed 602 Georgia voters and 366 usual Republican
primary voters from February 15th to 18th. The margin of error for
the overall sample is +/-4.0% and +/-5.1% for the GOP portion. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Barrow?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Broun?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jason Carter?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Max Cleland?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Gingrey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Karen Handel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Kingston?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Price?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat John Barrow and Republican Paul
Broun, who would you vote for?
John Barrow……………………………………………. 38%
Paul Broun……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat John Barrow and Republican Phil
Gingrey, who would you vote for?
John Barrow……………………………………………. 43%
Phil Gingrey ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat John Barrow and Republican Karen
Handel, who would you vote for?
John Barrow……………………………………………. 43%
Karen Handel………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat John Barrow and Republican Jack
Kingston, who would you vote for?
John Barrow……………………………………………. 40%
Jack Kingston …………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat John Barrow and Republican Tom
Price, who would you vote for?
John Barrow……………………………………………. 42%
Tom Price……………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Jason Carter and Republican Paul
Broun, who would you vote for?
Jason Carter …………………………………………… 40%
Paul Broun……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Jason Carter and Republican Phil
Gingrey, who would you vote for?
Jason Carter …………………………………………… 41%
Phil Gingrey ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Jason Carter and Republican Karen
Handel, who would you vote for?
Jason Carter …………………………………………… 40%
Karen Handel………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Jason Carter and Republican Jack
Kingston, who would you vote for?
Jason Carter …………………………………………… 39%
Jack Kingston …………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q18 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Jason Carter and Republican Tom
Price, who would you vote for?
Jason Carter …………………………………………… 39%
Tom Price……………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q19 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Max Cleland and Republican Paul
Broun, who would you vote for?
Max Cleland……………………………………………. 47%
Paul Broun……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q20 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Max Cleland and Republican Phil
Gingrey, who would you vote for?
Max Cleland……………………………………………. 46%
Phil Gingrey ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q21 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Max Cleland and Republican Karen
Handel, who would you vote for?
Max Cleland……………………………………………. 47%
Karen Handel………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q22 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Max Cleland and Republican Jack
Kingston, who would you vote for?
Max Cleland……………………………………………. 46%
Jack Kingston …………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q23 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Max Cleland and Republican Tom
Price, who would you vote for?
Max Cleland……………………………………………. 44%
Tom Price……………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q26 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q27 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q28 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Broun?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Gingrey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Karen Handel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Kingston?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Price?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q6 Given the choices of Paul Broun, Casey Cagle,
Phil Gingrey, Tom Graves, Karen Handel, Jack
Kingston, and Tom Price, who would you most
like to see as the Republican candidate for
Senate next year?
Paul Broun……………………………………………… 11%
Casey Cagle …………………………………………… 13%
Phil Gingrey ……………………………………………. 12%
Tom Graves ……………………………………………. 3%
Karen Handel………………………………………….. 15%
Jack Kingston …………………………………………. 15%
Tom Price……………………………………………….. 10%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 20%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were just
Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, Karen Handel, and
Jack Kingston, who would you vote for?
Paul Broun……………………………………………… 14%
Phil Gingrey ……………………………………………. 22%
Karen Handel………………………………………….. 21%
Jack Kingston …………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were just
Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, Tom Price, and Jack
Kingston, who would you vote for?
Paul Broun……………………………………………… 15%
Phil Gingrey ……………………………………………. 24%
Tom Price……………………………………………….. 14%
Jack Kingston …………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 8%
Moderate………………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 32%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q11 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
