Raleigh, N.C.— PPP’s first look at the Georgia Senate race
since Michelle Nunn jumped in shows a potentially competitive general and
primary. Nunn is tied with or leads all
of her potential opponents, but a lot of voters are undecided, and they lean
Republican. Phil Gingrey could be her
stiffest competition, and also leads a stocked primary field.
Nunn has only 40-42% of the vote. She
ties Gingrey at 41% and David Perdue at 40%, leads Karen Handel and Jack
Kingston each 40-38, Paul Broun 41-36, Derrick Grayson 42-36, and Eugene Yu
42-35. None of these candidates is known
to more than 52% of voters, so between 18% and 24% of voters are undecided 15
months out.
In the four closest matchups, the undecideds report voting for Mitt Romney
over President Obama by an average of 23 points, versus the +7 reported by the
overall electorate. But racially,
age-wise, and gender-wise, these voters mostly reflect the overall population;
they like Nunn’s father, former Sen. Sam Nunn, by an average of 30 points; and
they favor Hillary Clinton over four possible opponents by an average of about
half a point. They are more Republican
than the overall electorate, and that could tip the eventual GOP nominee over
the edge. But a lot of factors could
complicate that, not least of which is the primary itself.
In that race, Gingrey is currently on top with 25%, but 20% are undecided,
and arguably the most controversial and least electable candidate, Broun, is in
second with 19%, ahead of Kingston’s 15% and Handel’s 13%. The others are in single digits.
“The Georgia Senate race starts out as a toss up,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “None of the Republican candidates are
particularly well known or well liked to begin the race. Meanwhile the Nunn
name still carries a lot of weight with voters in the state.”
PPP surveyed 520
Georgia voters, including an oversample of 260 usual Republican primary voters,
between August 2nd and 5th. The margin of error for the overall
survey is +/- 4.3%, and +/-6.1% for the GOP portion. This poll was not
authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Broun?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Gingrey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Derrick Grayson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Karen Handel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Kingston?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michelle Nunn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Perdue?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eugene Yu?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Paul Broun and Democrat Michelle
Nunn, who would you vote for?
Paul Broun……………………………………………… 36%
Michelle Nunn …………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Phil Gingrey and Democrat
Michelle Nunn, who would you vote for?
Phil Gingrey ……………………………………………. 41%
Michelle Nunn …………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Derrick Grayson and Democrat
Michelle Nunn, who would you vote for?
Derrick Grayson………………………………………. 36%
Michelle Nunn …………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Karen Handel and Democrat
Michelle Nunn, who would you vote for?
Karen Handel………………………………………….. 38%
Michelle Nunn …………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Jack Kingston and Democrat
Michelle Nunn, who would you vote for?
Jack Kingston …………………………………………. 38%
Michelle Nunn …………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican David Perdue and Democrat
Michelle Nunn, who would you vote for?
David Perdue ………………………………………….. 40%
Michelle Nunn …………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Eugene Yu and Democrat Michelle
Nunn, who would you vote for?
Eugene Yu ……………………………………………… 35%
Michelle Nunn …………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sam Nunn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q18 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q22 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 24%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Broun?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Gingrey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Derrick Grayson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Karen Handel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Kingston?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michelle Nunn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Perdue?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eugene Yu?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q9 Given the choices of Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey,
Derrick Grayson, Karen Handel, Jack Kingston,
David Perdue, and Eugene Yu, who would you
most like to see as the Republican candidate
for Senate next year?
Paul Broun……………………………………………… 19%
Phil Gingrey ……………………………………………. 25%
Derrick Grayson………………………………………. 3%
Karen Handel………………………………………….. 13%
Jack Kingston …………………………………………. 15%
David Perdue ………………………………………….. 5%
Eugene Yu ……………………………………………… 0%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 20%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 7%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
