Trump Has Solid Lead Over Clinton in Georgia

| Tom Jensen

PPP’s new Georgia poll finds that the prospect of Democrats flipping the state blue in the Presidential race may have diminished with the unification of Republican voters around Donald Trump in the last month. Trump leads Clinton 45/38, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 6% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%. Georgia’s a state where Trump is unpopular (44/49 favorability), but Clinton is another degree more unpopular (33/60 favorability).

Clinton and Trump draw pretty identical support within their own parties. Clinton’s up 86/3 with Democrats, while Trump’s up 84/3 with Republicans. That inherently would give Trump the advantage in Georgia, given the state’s overall Republican lean. But beyond that Trump also leads 37/30 with independents, with Johnson at 13% and Stein at 1%. The racial divide in Georgia is massive with Clinton leading 80/2 among black voters, but Trump having a 67/17 advantage with white ones.

Clinton’s numbers in Georgia fit into the general pattern we’ve been finding of her poll numbers across the country shaping up very similarly to how Barack Obama did in 2012:


Most Recent PPP Poll

2012 Results


Trump +7

Romney +8

North Carolina

Trump +2

Romney +2

New Mexico

Clinton +8

Obama +10


Trump +2

Romney +10


Clinton +4

Obama +4

West Virginia

Trump +27

Romney +27


Clinton +3

Obama +3

Georgia’s a state where Bernie Sanders doesn’t do any better in match ups with Trump than Clinton does. He trails 46/36, with Gary Johnson at 5% and Jill Stein at 1%. Sanders is only slightly less unpopular with voters in the state than Clinton, with a 34/55 favorability.

Newt Gingrich is a decently popular figure in Georgia, with a 44/36 favorability rating. But he actually hurts Trump in scenarios where he’s polled as a hypothetical running mate, taking Trump’s lead over both Clinton and Sanders down to 5 points at 47/42. Voters who are undecided in the standard Clinton/Trump match up move to Clinton by 20 points when Gingrich is introduced into the mix as Trump’s running mate.

On the topic of people who have been mentioned as Vice Presidential candidates, we tested Mark Cuban’s favorability and found that 60% of voters have no opinion about him one way or another. He does have a positive 25/15 rating among those who are familiar with him- it breaks down 30/7 with independents, 30/16 with Democrats, and 18/19 with Republicans.

Finally we find more evidence in Georgia of the extreme views held by voters who have a favorable opinion of Trump:

-50% of Trump fans think Hillary Clinton had some involvement in the death of Vince Foster, to only 13% who think she didn’t and 37% who aren’t sure one way or another. This is another example of the cult like aspect of Trump’s following. He says something and his voters get on board with it for the most part. We saw a similar dynamic with his claims about Arabs in New Jersey cheering on 9/11.

-Georgia removed the Confederate flag from its state flag in 2001, but Trump fans in the state want it back. 52% want it reincorporated back into the Georgia flag, compared to only 29% who would be opposed to doing such a thing. By contrast voters with an unfavorable view of Trump oppose, 14/76, putting the Confederate flag back into the state flag.

-Trump fans are pretty ambivalent on whether they even think it’s a good thing that the North won the Civil War. Only 37% say that they’re glad the North won, compared to 31% who wish the South had won, and 32% who aren’t sure one way or another.

-Finally we find that Trump fans support his practice of calling Elizabeth Warren ‘Pocahontas,’ 50-31. Among voters who have a negative opinion of Trump, 86% think it’s inappropriate to call Warren by that moniker to only 10% who find it acceptable.

Full results here

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