Polls

Perdue edges Nunn

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Public Policy Polling’s newest Georgia survey finds a tight race for the US Senate. Republican David Perdue is at 45% to 43% for Democrat Michelle Nunn. Libertarian Amanda Swafford is polling at 5%, which would be enough to send the contest into a January runoff if it remains this close. Swafford’s support could reflect residual unhappiness among voters who supported one of Perdue’s opponents in the Republican nomination contest- 70% of them voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 compared to only 16% of them who voted for Barack Obama. They say they would support Perdue over Nunn 43/12 if they had to choose between the two.

Voters are pretty mixed in their feelings about both candidates. Nunn has a slightly better net favorability rating at -1, with 41% of voters giving her positive marks to 42% with an unfavorable opinion. Perdue comes in at -4 with 39% rating him favorably to 43% who have a negative view.

Republicans have leads of varying sizes in all the statewide races. In the contest for Governor Nathan Deal is at 46% to 41% for Democratic challenger Jason Carter. Libertarian Andrew Hunt is getting 4%, which based on Deal’s current lead would not be enough to force the election into a December runoff. Voters are mixed in their feelings about both Deal and Carter as well. Deal has a 43/42 approval rating, and Carter’s favorability stands at 39/36.

The GOP candidates lead all of the down ballot state races by margins ranging from 6 to 11 points. Casey Cagle is up 48/37 for Lieutenant Governor, Brian Kemp is up 48/39 for Secretary of State, Sam Olens, Gary Black, and Mark Butler are all up 45/36 in their contests for Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner, and Labor Commissioner respectively, Ralph Hudgens is up 41/34 for Insurance Commissioner, and Richard Woods is up 46/40 for State Superintendent.

“The Georgia Senate race remains very competitive,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Michelle Nunn’s closeness is particularly noteworthy since most of the statewide races show business as usual strong advantages for the GOP.”

PPP surveyed 895 likely voters from October 2nd to 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Nathan Deal’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jason Carter?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q4 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Nathan Deal, Democrat Jason Carter, and
Libertarian Andrew Hunt. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Nathan Deal……………………………………………. 46%
Jason Carter …………………………………………… 41%
Andrew Hunt …………………………………………… 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q5 Combined horse race, with Hunt supporters
and undecideds asked if they lean Deal or
Carter
Nathan Deal……………………………………………. 50%
Jason Carter ………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q6 If there was a runoff election for Governor in
December, would you definitely vote, probably
vote, are the chances 50/50, or would you
probably not vote?
Would definitely vote………………………………… 87%
Would probably vote ………………………………… 8%
Chances are 50/50 ………………………………….. 4%
Would probably not vote …………………………… 1%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Perdue?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michelle Nunn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q9 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Republican
David Perdue, Democrat Michelle Nunn, and
Libertarian Amanda Swafford. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
David Perdue ………………………………………….. 45%
Michelle Nunn …………………………………………. 43%
Amanda Swafford ……………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q10 Combined horse race, with Swafford
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
Perdue or Nunn
David Perdue ………………………………………….. 48%
Michelle Nunn …………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q11 If there was a runoff election for the U.S.
Senate in January, would you definitely vote,
probably vote, are the chances 50/50, or would
you probably not vote?
Would definitely vote………………………………… 85%
Would probably vote ………………………………… 10%
Chances are 50/50 ………………………………….. 4%
Would probably not vote …………………………… 1%

Q12 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Republican Casey Cagle and Democrat
Connie Stokes. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Casey Cagle …………………………………………… 48%
Connie Stokes ………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%

Q13 The candidates for Attorney General are
Republican Sam Olens and Democrat Greg
Hecht. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Sam Olens ……………………………………………… 45%
Greg Hecht …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%

Q14 The candidates for Agriculture Commissioner
are Republican Gary Black and Democrat
Chris Irvin. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Gary Black …………………………………………….. 45%
Chris Irvin……………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%

Q15 The candidates for Insurance Commissioner
are Republican Ralph Hudgens, Democrat Liz
Johnson, and Libertarian Ted Metz. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Ralph Hudgens ……………………………………….. 41%
Liz Johnson…………………………………………….. 34%
Ted Metz ………………………………………………… 10%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%

Q16 The candidates for Labor Commissioner are
Republican Mark Butler and Democrat Robbin
Shipp. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Mark Butler …………………………………………….. 45%
Robbin Shipp ………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%

Q17 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Doreen
Carter. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Brian Kemp…………………………………………….. 48%
Doreen Carter …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q18 The candidates for State Superintendent are
Republican Richard Woods and Democrat
Valarie Wilson. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Richard Woods ……………………………………….. 46%
Valarie Wilson…………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Saxby Chambliss’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q20 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Johnny Isakson’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jimmy Carter?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q22 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sam Nunn?
Favorability …………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q23 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sonny Perdue?
Favorability …………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q24 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorability …………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q25 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorability …………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q26 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q27 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q28 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q29 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q30 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Newt
Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q31 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q32 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q33 Do you think Herman Cain should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should ………………………………………. 27%
Think he should not …………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q34 Do you think Newt Gingrich should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should ………………………………………. 21%
Think he should not …………………………………. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q35 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 56%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q36 Georgia is eligible to receive new federal
funding to pay for health care through the
Medicaid program. Do you think the Georgia
state government should accept this federal
funding to expand Medicaid coverage, or not?
Think it should…………………………………………. 56%
Think it should not……………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q37 Do you consider yourself to be an Atlanta
Braves fan?
Yes………………………………………………………… 60%
No …………………………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q38 (Q38-40 asked only of Braves fans) Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Fredi
Gonzalez is doing managing the Braves?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%

Q39 Do you think Fredi Gonzalez should return as
manager next year, or do you think he should
be replaced?
Think he should return ……………………………… 41%
Think he should be replaced……………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%

Q40 Do you agree or disagree with the Braves’
decision to fire Frank Wren as General
Manager?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 45%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%

Q41 Would you say that you are more of a Georgia
or Georgia Tech fan?
Georgia………………………………………………….. 48%
Georgia Tech ………………………………………….. 20%
Neither school / Not sure ………………………….. 32%

Q42 (Asked only of UGa. fans:) Do you approve or
disapprove of the job Mark Richt is doing as
football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 70%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q43 (Asked only of GT fans:) Do you approve or
disapprove of the job Paul Johnson is doing as
football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%

Q44 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paula Deen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q45 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin Luther King, Jr.?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 72%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q46 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 6%

Q47 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%

Q48 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q49 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 25%

Q50 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 64%
African-American …………………………………….. 28%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%

Q51 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

Q52 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

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