Raleigh, N.C.— Georgia voters have had an about-face on their
feelings toward their governor. His
approval rating rebounding a net 17 points in the last six months, Nathan Deal
is now the 14th most popular of 42 sitting governors on which PPP
has polled. As a result, he appears to
be in little trouble in either the primary or general election.
44% approve and only 32% disapprove of Deal’s job performance, versus 36-41
when PPP last polled the state in February.
The Republican has made gains across the partisan spectrum, but his
largest turnaround is with independents—35 points (51-28 now versus 31-43 in
the previous poll).
Then, Deal led three relatively big-name Democrats by only eight to ten
points. He now tops one of the same
possible opponents and two lesser-known Democrats by 13 to 20. His lead over Jimmy Carter’s grandson, state
Sen. Jason Carter, has almost doubled from eight (46-38) to 15 points (48-33). Deal also leads state Rep. Stacey Abrams,
47-34, and state Rep. Scott Holcomb, 48-28.
Granted, only 21-23% of voters have an opinion on the Democratic contenders. Among voters who already know how they feel
about both Deal and the respective Democrats, Abrams leads by one point, Carter
trails by one, and Holcomb lags by four.
With the potential challengers so little known; with 19-24% of voters
unsurprisingly undecided at this point; and with Deal still at only 47-48% of
the vote, similar to February, this race could tighten next year once the
opposition party settles on a candidate.
Though Democrats would probably benefit from facing someone other than Deal,
the incumbent should also have little problem dispensing any primary
challengers. He leads declared candidate
David Pennington, 71-11, and possible opponent John Barge, 71-8.
“Nathan Deal is in a much stronger position now than he was six months ago,”
said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He looks like a solid
favorite for reelection.”
PPP surveyed 520
Georgia voters, including an oversample of 260 usual Republican primary voters,
between August 2nd and 5th. The margin of error for the overall
survey is +/- 4.3%, and +/-6.1% for the GOP portion. This poll was not
authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Nathan Deal’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Stacey Abrams?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jason Carter?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Holcomb?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Nathan Deal and Democrat Stacey
Abrams, who would you vote for?
Nathan Deal……………………………………………. 47%
Stacey Abrams………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Nathan Deal and Democrat Jason
Carter, who would you vote for?
Nathan Deal……………………………………………. 48%
Jason Carter …………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Nathan Deal and Democrat Scott
Holcomb, who would you vote for?
Nathan Deal……………………………………………. 48%
Scott Holcomb ………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q8 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 24%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Nathan Deal’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 66%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for Governor were
Nathan Deal and David Pennington, who would
you vote for?
Nathan Deal……………………………………………. 71%
David Pennington ……………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for Governor were
Nathan Deal and John Barge, who would you
vote for?
Nathan Deal……………………………………………. 71%
John Barge …………………………………………….. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 7%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q6 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
