Public Policy Polling

Democrats lead Republicans in upcoming Virginia races

Raleigh, N.C. – Looking forward to the 2014 and 2016 elections with respect to the Senate and Presidential races, Virginia voters prefer Democrats over Republicans.

When asked about the approval of their current elected leaders, Virginia voters approve of the job performance of Democrats, President Obama (53-43), Senator Mark Warner (52-31), and Senator Tim Kaine (42-36, with 22% of voters undecided), while also approving of Republican Governor Bob McDonnell (48-35). Even though Republican Governor McDonnell is approved, Virginians have an unfavorable opinion of Republican Majority Leader, Congressman Eric Cantor (VA-7), who is currently sitting at 44% unfavorable and 27% favorable.

Democrat Mark Warner comes out on top of every pairing with potential Republican candidates for the Senate next year. Warner leads current Lt. Governor Bill Bolling (53-35), Congressman Eric Cantor (56-37), Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (57-36), and Governor Bob McDonnell (52-42).

Warner looks strong for 2014

PPP's newest Virginia poll finds Mark Warner in a strong position no matter who the GOP puts up against him next year. Warner continues to be the state's most popular politician, with 52% of voters approving of him to only 31% who disapprove.

Bob McDonnell has solid numbers too, with a 48/35 approval spread. Even so he would trail Warner 52/42 if he tried to run for the Senate next year. The rest of the Republicans we tested do far worse. Bill Bolling would trail by 18 points at 53/35. Eric Cantor, who's a very unpopular figure with a 27/44 favorability rating, trails Warner 56/37. And likely 2013 Gubernatorial nominee Ken Cuccinelli does the worst in a hypothetical head to head with Warner, trailing 57/36. Barring some dramatic reversal of Warner's popularity he looks safe for next year.

McAuliffe opens 2013 with a lead over Cuccinelli

Raleigh, N.C. – Virginia is unique in its one-term limit on its governors, and if current numbers hold, the GOP may see its four-year moment in control of the entire state end this fall.  Likely Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe leads likely Republican opponent Ken Cuccinelli by five points (46-41) in PPP’s first 2013 poll of the state.

Cuccinelli, currently the state’s Attorney General, has much higher name identification than McAuliffe, who failed to get his party’s nomination four years ago, despite his establishment support and fundraising advantage.  Only about half of voters say they are familiar with McAuliffe, but almost three-quarters are with their A.G.  If name recognition is neutralized at this point, McAuliffe’s lead jumps to 13 points (52-39), suggesting he could do even better as he begins to officially campaign for office.

McAuliffe has early lead in VA-Gov

PPP's first Virginia poll of 2013 finds Terry McAuliffe leading Ken Cuccinelli 46-41. When Bill Bolling is thrown into the mix as an independent candidate he gets 15%, with McAuliffe's lead expanding to 8 points at 40/32.

The story of the race at this point is really how unpopular Cuccinelli is. Only 29% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. Even among Republicans there are significant doubts about him- only 48% see him favorably with a much higher than normal 23% of voters within his own party seeing him negatively.

That pause about Cuccinelli among Republicans is a big part of why McAuliffe has this early 5 point lead. 11% of Republicans say they would cross over to support McAuliffe if Cuccinelli was the nominee, compared to only 6% of Democrats who say they would vote for Cuccinelli. McAuliffe also has a 43/39 lead with independents, who give Cuccinelli a 31/46 favorability spread.

McAuliffe is essentially functioning as a generic Democratic candidate at this point. Only 51% of voters are familiar enough with him to have an opinion and those who have one are pretty evenly divided about him with 25% rating him favorably and 26% unfavorably. His early lead has more to do with voters disliking Cuccinelli than actually liking him.

Obama leads by 4 points in Virginia, 5 points in Ohio

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.

In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.

Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.

Obama leads in Ohio and Virginia

PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.

In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.

Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.

It's a similar story in Virginia. Obama's up 56/43 with women and 92/8 with African Americans and he's holding Romney to a 58/40 advantage with whites, which is below what we've generally been finding for him nationally recently. When you combine Obama's relative strength among white voters with Virginia being one of the more racially diverse states in the country it's the formula for a lead.

Democrats are also well positioned to win the US Senate races in each of these states. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 52/46 in Virginia's open seat race and Sherrod Brown's up 54/44 for reelection against Josh Mandel. It's a similar story in both states. Voters like the Democratic candidates- Brown has a 48/43 approval rating and Kaine has a 50/40 favorability rating. And they don't much care for the Republican contenders- Mandel's favorability is 36/50 and Allen's is 42/48.

There is one piece of good news for Republicans in these polls- Ohio's proposed independent redistricting commission is headed for defeat with 39% of voters planning to support it compared to 49% who are opposed.

Full results here

Obama leads by 3 in Virginia

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-46. PPP has conducted 5 Virginia polls during the month of October and found Obama leading in every single one, by an average margin of 2.8 points.

Key findings from the survey include:

-Obama is winning big with women (56/39), African Americans (86/11), and voters under 45 (53/41). Romney’s strong groups are men (56/40), seniors (52/45), and white voters (56/39).

- One key thing to note is that Obama’s deficit with white voters in Virginia (17) is smaller than our national polling has found (22). Obama's competitiveness with white voters coupled with his overwhelming support from Virginia’s larger than average non-white population make him the favorite there.

-Obama continues to have a strong advantage over Romney on the key issues of who voters think will stand up more for the middle class (51/45) and who they think will do more to protect Medicare (50/45). We have consistently found Obama with the edge on these measures in swing states, and it goes a long way toward explaining why he’s the favorite in most of them.

Full results here

Obama lead in Virginia up to 5 points

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama expanding his lead in the aftermath of his debate victory Monday night. He now has 51% to 46% for Mitt Romney, up from a 49/47 advantage last weekend.

Key findings from the survey include:

-Obama’s seen a 7 point net improvement in his favorability rating among Virginia voters from a -3 spread last week (48/51) to now +4 at 51/47. Romney’s numbers have headed in the other direction. He’s dropped 7 points from a +2 spread on our last poll (49/47) to now -5 at 46/51.

-Voters trust Obama more than Romney on several major issues in the election. Those include who voters think will stand up for the middle class (52/44) and who they think will do more to protect Medicare (50/46).

-Obama leads 57/41 with women, 88/8 with African Americans, and 53/42 with young voters. Romney has a 50/45 advantage with men, a 57/41 one with whites, and a 57/41 edge with seniors. Obama’s moved from being slightly behind with independents last week at 45/44 to now slightly ahead at 47/45.

Full results here

Obama wins debate by 11 points in swing states

PPP's post debate poll in the swing states, conducted on behalf of Americans United for Change, finds that Barack Obama was the big winner in tonight's face off. 53% of those surveyed in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin think Obama was the winner to 42% who pick Romney.

Obama's winning margin among critical independent voters was even larger than his overall win, with 55% of them picking him as the winner to 40% for Romney. The sense that Obama was the winner is pretty universal across different demographics groups- women (57/39), men (48/45), Hispanics (69/29), African Americans (87/13), whites (49/45), young voters (55/40), and seniors (53/43) all think Obama came out ahead tonight.

Maybe even more important than the sentiment on who won the debate is who folks in these swing states are planning to vote for now: 51% of them say they're going to support Obama to 45% who stand with Romney. That includes a 46/36 advantage for Obama with independents, and Obama also seems to have made a lot of progress with groups he was previously down by wide margins with. Among men (50/47) and whites (50/46) he is trailing only slightly and with seniors he's actually ahead 52/47.

Obama leads by 2 in Virginia

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama continuing to hold onto a lead in the state at 49% to 47% for Mitt Romney. PPP has conducted three Virginia polls since the first Presidential debate and has found Obama with a 1-3 point advantage on each of them.

Key findings from the survey include:

-By a 53/45 margin voters trust Obama more than Romney to stand up for the middle class. And by a 50/43 spread they trust Obama more to make sure that the wealthiest American pay their fair share of taxes.

-Obama has a 51/47 lead with seniors, which may be driven in part by the fact that 51% of them trust Obama more to protect Medicare, compared to 46% of voters who pick Romney on that question.

-Obama’s leading 54/42 with women, 91/7 with African Americans, and 54/38 with voters under 30. Romney’s ahead 53/43 with men and 59/38 with white voters. The candidates are basically tied among independents with 45% going for Romney and 44% for Obama.

Full results here