New Public Policy Polling surveys in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, conducted on behalf of VoteVets Action Fund, find Hillary Clinton leading in each state. Voters in all five states see Clinton as having been the runaway winner of Monday night’s debate, and they question Donald Trump’s temperament and preparedness for office.
Clinton has solid leads in Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Virginia- states seen as important to her path to 270 electoral votes- and modest leads in Florida and North Carolina, where wins would be indicative of a dominant overall victory in the Electoral College. If these results hold up, Donald Trump has no path to victory:
State |
4 Way Horse Race |
2 Way Horse Race |
Colorado |
Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 2 |
Clinton 51, Trump 44 |
Florida |
Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 3, Stein 1 |
Clinton 48, Trump 45 |
North Carolina |
Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 7 |
Clinton 49, Trump 45 |
Pennsylvania |
Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 2 |
Clinton 49, Trump 44 |
Virginia |
Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 7, Stein 1 |
Clinton 49, Trump 43 |
The debate Monday night is one of the things giving Clinton a big boost. In all of these states she’s seen as having won it by a wide margin:
State |
Debate Winner |
Colorado |
Clinton 53, Trump 31 |
Florida |
Clinton 52, Trump 35 |
North Carolina |
Clinton 53, Trump 31 |
Pennsylvania |
Clinton 51, Trump 32 |
Virginia |
Clinton 54, Trump 30 |
One area where Clinton particularly received a boost Monday night is with voters under 30. They overwhelmingly see Clinton as the winner and they’re starting to vote for her in larger numbers than they had before:
State |
Debate Winner |
4 Way Horse Race |
2 Way Horse Race |
Colorado |
Clinton 64, Trump 23 |
Clinton 50, Trump 27, Johnson 15, Stein 2 |
Clinton 62, Trump 34 |
Florida |
Clinton 65, Trump 32 |
Clinton 54, Trump 28, Johnson 4, Stein 4 |
Clinton 63, Trump 35 |
North Carolina |
Clinton 59, Trump 17 |
Clinton 46, Trump 27, Johnson 19 |
Clinton 56, Trump 32 |
Pennsylvania |
Clinton 53, Trump 24 |
Clinton 45, Trump 22, Johnson 11, Stein 4 |
Clinton 57, Trump 35 |
Virginia |
Clinton 53, Trump 24 |
Clinton 44, Johnson 24, Trump 21, Stein 2 |
Clinton 50, Trump 24 |
Clinton has at least a 19 point lead with young voters in the full field in each state, leads of 24-28 points in a head to head match up with Trump, and is seen as the debate winner by 29-42 points with young voters in this set of states.
Monday night’s debate created large contrasts in voters’ minds when it comes to whether each candidate is prepared to be President, has the temperament to be President, and can be trusted with nuclear weapons. On all three of those tests Donald Trump fails miserably:
State |
Prepared to be President (Yes/No) |
Temperament to be President (Yes/No) |
Can be Trusted with Nuclear Weapons (Yes/No) |
Colorado |
34/60 |
35/61 |
38/56 |
Florida |
40/55 |
40/53 |
40/52 |
North Carolina |
35/60 |
35/57 |
38/55 |
Pennsylvania |
37/56 |
38/56 |
40/54 |
Virginia |
36/59 |
35/61 |
39/56 |
Only 34-40% of voters in these key states thinks Trump is prepared to be President, only 35-40% think he has the temperament to be President, and only 38-40% think he can be trusted with nuclear weapons.
Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, passes all three of these tests with voters in these states:
State |
Prepared to be President (Yes/No) |
Temperament to be President (Yes/No) |
Can be Trusted with Nuclear Weapons (Yes/No) |
Colorado |
53/45 |
53/43 |
53/41 |
Florida |
50/47 |
51/44 |
49/44 |
North Carolina |
53/44 |
52/44 |
53/40 |
Pennsylvania |
52/43 |
51/41 |
52/41 |
Virginia |
51/45 |
53/44 |
54/41 |
Majorities of voters in all five states think Clinton is both prepared and has the temperament to be President.
Trump does win out when matched against Clinton on one measure we tested though: which candidate would be more likely as President to cause a nuclear war. There is at least an 18 point nuclear war gap to Trump’s disadvantage in every state:
State |
More Likely To Cause a Nuclear War |
Colorado |
Trump 51, Clinton 31 |
Florida |
Trump 50, Clinton 32 |
North Carolina |
Trump 51, Clinton 30 |
Pennsylvania |
Trump 50, Clinton 29 |
Virginia |
Trump 53, Clinton 31 |
Finally we find that voters in all 5 of these states are strongly opposed to privatizing health care services provided by the Department of Veterans Affairs, and that opposition cuts across party lines:
State |
Overall Privatization |
With Democrats |
With Republicans |
Colorado |
27% Support, 64% Oppose |
23/70 |
33/59 |
Florida |
27% Support, 61% Oppose |
24/64 |
36/55 |
North Carolina |
26% Support, 62% Oppose |
19/71 |
35/53 |
Pennsylvania |
27% Support, 62% Oppose |
24/67 |
31/56 |
Virginia |
27% Support, 65% Oppose |
22/69 |
31/60 |
Full results here
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