Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s latest poll of Virginia
voters shows that while 2014 may be an easy victory for Democrats, 2016 could
still be anyone’s game. Mark Warner is looking very comfortable with a 51%
approval rating, compared to 31% who disapprove. He currently holds double
digit leads over all possible competitors, including Lieutenant Governor Bill
Bolling (53% to 35%), House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (52% to 36%), State
Delegate Bob Marshall (50% to 34%), and Governor Bob McDonnell (51% to 36%).
Of these possible Republican candidates, only Bolling has a positive
favorability rating split, 25% to 17%, though a good majority, 58% have no
opinion whatsoever. All the others are unpopular with the voters of Virginia;
McDonnell has a 45% unfavorable rating compared to 32% favorable, Cantor has
42% unfavorable to 25% favorable, and Marshall is at 16% favorable to 7%
favorable.
“Mark
Warner was elected by a huge margin in 2008 and it looks like he will be again
in 2014,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Even the best
known Republicans in the state don’t come anywhere close to him.”
Looking
towards 2016 Hillary Clinton has safe leads over Governor McDonnell, 49% to
39%, Senator Rand Paul, 51% to 39%, and Senator Marco Rubio, 49% to 37%. It is
looking more competitive when she is pitted against Former Florida Governor Jeb
Bush and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Against Bush she leads by 5%, 47%
to 42% and against Christie she leads by just 1%, 42% to 41%.
Finally,
the poll shows that Virginia voters stand with the nation on current political
issues. 45% of Virginians support the Voting Rights Act, with just 20%
opposing, and 48% oppose the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn parts of the
act, compared to just 23% who support the decision. 75% of Virginia voters want
background checks on all gun sales, including those at gun shows and on the
internet. This support is bipartisan, comprised of 91% of Democrats, 61% of
Republicans, and 71% of independents.
PPP surveyed 601 registered voters between July 11-14,
2013. The margin of error was +/- 4.0%. The poll also included oversamples of
415 Republican primary voters and 357 Democratic primary voters and the margins
of error on those are +/-4.8% and +/-5.2% respectively. This poll was not
authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Warner’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob McDonnell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Bolling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eric Cantor?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Marshall?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Bill
Bolling, who would you vote for?
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 53%
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Eric
Cantor, who would you vote for?
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 52%
Eric Cantor……………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Bob
Marshall, who would you vote for?
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 50%
Bob Marshall…………………………………………… 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Bob
McDonnell, who would you vote for?
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 51%
Bob McDonnell ……………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Bob
McDonnell, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Bob McDonnell ……………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 42%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q13 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q14 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tim
Kaine’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q16 Do you support or oppose the Voting Rights
Act?
Support ………………………………………………….. 45%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q17 Do you support or oppose the Supreme Court’s
decision to overturn parts of the Voting Rights
Act?
Support ………………………………………………….. 23%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q18 Would you support or oppose requiring
background checks for all gun sales, including
gun shows and the Internet?
Support ………………………………………………….. 75%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q19 Who did you vote for President in 2012?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 3%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q23 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 18%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Bob McDonnell, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 16%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 16%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 9%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 4%
Bob McDonnell ……………………………………….. 8%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 15%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 12%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 11%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 1%
Moderate………………………………………………… 22%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 14%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 4%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 0%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 3%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 11%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 33%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 8%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 3%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 61%
Man……………………………………………………….. 39%
Q4 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
