Raleigh,
N.C.- PPP’s newest Virginia survey finds that voters aren’t too keen
on a 2016 Bob McDonnell Presidential bid. Only 17% think he should make a
run for the White House to 57% who are opposed to the idea. Even among
Republicans just 30% think he should go for it to 37% who think he should not.
The lack of enthusiasm from Republicans about a McDonnell campaign shows
through in numbers that find he is only the fourth choice of primary voters in
the state to be their next national standard bearer. 17% support Marco Rubio
with Chris Christie at 15% and Jeb Bush at 14% also coming in ahead of
McDonnell’s 12%. After that it’s Rand Paul at 10%, Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan at
8%, Bobby Jindal at 3%, and Rick Santorum at 2%.
McDonnell would start out at a deficit in a general election match up with
Hillary Clinton in his home state as well. Clnton leads him 48/42, a larger
margin of victory than Barack Obama achieved over Mitt Romney in the state last
November. Clinton also leads 46/42 over Marco Rubio.
Despite Mark Warner’s immense popularity with voters in Virginia, he still
runs a very distant third to Clinton when it comes to who Democrats would like
to see as their 2016 candidate. 56% pick Clinton to 14% for Joe Biden, 11% for
Warner, 3% each for Andrew Cuomo and Elizabeth Warren, 1% each for Kirsten
Gillibrand and Martin O’Malley, and less than 1% each for Deval Patrick and
Brian Schweitzer. Clinton has majority support from liberals, moderates, men,
women, whites, African Americans, and voters within every age group.
“Hillary Clinton continues to be a juggernaut most everywhere we poll,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Even in the home states of
other potential Democratic candidates she is way up on the rest of the field.”
PPP surveyed 672 Virginia voters including oversamples
of 421 Democratic primary voters and 500 Republican primary voters from May
24-26, 2013. The overall margin of error was +/- 3.8%. The margin of error for the
Democratic primary poll was +/-4.8% and for the Republicans it’s +/-4.4%. This
poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization.
PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Bob
McDonnell, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Bob McDonnell ……………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you think Bob McDonnell should run for
President in 2016, or not?
He should run …………………………………………. 17%
He should not………………………………………….. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q4 Do you think Mark Warner should run for
President in 2016, or not?
He should run …………………………………………. 29%
He should not………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 Who did you vote for President in 2012?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q9 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 18%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 50%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Would you prefer that the Republican Party
pick its candidates for offices like Attorney
General and Lieutenant Governor through a
primary election or a convention?
Primary ………………………………………………….. 62%
Convention……………………………………………… 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Bob McDonnell, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 14%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 15%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 8%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Bob McDonnell ……………………………………….. 12%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 10%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 17%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 8%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 11%
Q3 If Bob McDonnell was not a candidate for
President in 2016, and the choices were just
Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby
Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan,
and Rick Santorum, who would you most like to
see as the GOP candidate for President in
2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 17%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 20%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 8%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 9%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 20%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 10%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 22%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q6 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 14%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 56%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 3%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 1%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 0%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 11%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 32%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 7%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 59%
Man……………………………………………………….. 41%
Q4 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 68%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
