Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s final Virginia poll finds Democrats leading in all three statewide races. In the Governor’s race Terry McAuliffe has the advantage with 50% to 43% for Ken Cuccinelli and 4% for Libertarian Robert Sarvis. In the Lieutenant Governor’s race Ralph Northam is headed for a blowout win, getting 52% to 39% for E.W. Jackson. The intrigue will be in the Attorney General contest where Mark Herring is only up 47/45.

McAuliffe is likely to win on Tuesday because voters see him as the lesser of two evils. Both candidates are deeply unpopular with Cuccinelli posting a 39/52 favorability rating, and McAuliffe’s coming in at 36/52. But among voters who dislike both candidates- and they account for 15% of the electorate- McAuliffe leads Cuccinelli 61/16. Those voters who don’t like either major party standard bearer are responsible for McAuliffe’s entire lead in this poll.

Beyond that McAuliffe leads because he has a 47/39 advantage with independents and because he has a more unified party, with 82% of Democrats saying they’ll support him to 79% of Republicans for Cuccinelli. Moderate voters prefer McAuliffe 66/24.

Whether Republicans will learn any lessons if they lose on Tuesday is unclear. Overall voters in the state think the GOP would have been better off nominating Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling than Cuccinelli by a 49/22 margin. But among Republican voters, they still think Cuccinelli was the right candidate to put forth by a 40/36 margin.

From the ‘what might have been’ department we asked people how they would vote if they did have the option of supporting Bolling as an independent candidate, and he pulls 22%. McAuliffe would still lead Cuccinelli if he had been in the race but by a considerably tighter spread of 34/32.

“It looks like Democrats have a pretty good chance of pulling off the sweep in Virginia Tuesday,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It will just come down to whether they can pull out the race for Attorney General.”

PPP surveyed 870 likely voters on November 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.3%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Ken Cuccinelli, Democrat Terry McAuliffe, and
Libertarian Robert Sarvis. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli ………………………………………… 43%
Terry McAuliffe………………………………………… 50%
Robert Sarvis ………………………………………….. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 The candidates for Attorney General are
Republican Mark Obenshain and Democrat
Mark Herring. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Mark Obenshain ……………………………………… 45%
Mark Herring…………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q3 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Republican E.W. Jackson and Democrat Ralph
Northam. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
E.W. Jackson………………………………………….. 39%
Ralph Northam………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Cuccinelli?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry McAuliffe?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Bolling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%

Q7 If Bill Bolling had run for Governor as an
independent, and the candidates had been
Republican Ken Cuccinelli, Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, and independent Bill Bolling, who
would you vote have voted for?
Ken Cuccinelli ………………………………………… 32%
Terry McAuliffe………………………………………… 34%
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q8 Do you think Republicans would have been
better off nominating Bill Bolling or Ken
Cuccinelli for Governor?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 49%
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%

Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 7%
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 15%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%

Q13 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%