Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s most recent poll of Virginia
voters shows a tight race for the governorship brewing in November. Democratic
nominee and former chairman of the Democratic Party Terry McAuliffe leads
Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli 41% to 37%, with Libertarian nominee
Robert Sarvis receiving 7% of the vote. Cuccinelli is viewed in a mostly
negative light by the state, as 32% of the state has a favorable opinion but
47% has an unfavorable opinion, including 57% of independents. McAuliffe is
less well known, as only 70% of Virginians have an opinion on him, and are
rather evenly divided, 34% saying they had a favorable opinion versus 36% with
an unfavorable view. In fact, more Democrats have an opinion on Cuccinelli than
they do about their own nominee.
The
Lieutenant Governor race appears to be more set, as Democrat Ralph Northam is
leading Republican E.W. Jackson 42% to 35%, including a 45% to 28% lead with
female voters. 28% of Virginia voters have an unfavorable rating of Jackson, who
drew national attention for some of his more radical views, compared to just 15%
with a favorable opinion.
The
Attorney General race is looking to be the tightest of the year, with 38% of
voters backing Democrat Mark Herring and 36% supporting Republican Mark
Obenshain. The vote is largely split down party lines, with only 7% of both
Democrats and Republicans supporting the candidate nominated by the opposing
party, though Obenshain does hold a slight lead with independents, 34% to 27%.
Finally,
Democrats hold a slight lead in the elections for the state legislature, 46% to
42%.
“Our
polling in Virginia this year has consistently found Terry McAuliffe with a 4
or 5 point lead,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Ken
Cuccinelli isn’t a very popular candidate and Bob McDonnell’s woes aren’t doing
much to help the Republican brand in the state.”
PPP surveyed 601 registered voters between July 11-14,
2013. The margin of error was +/- 4.0%. This poll was not authorized or paid
for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted
through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Cuccinelli?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry McAuliffe?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Ken Cuccinelli, Democrat Terry McAuliffe, and
Libertarian Robert Sarvis. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli ………………………………………… 37%
Terry McAuliffe………………………………………… 41%
Robert Sarvis ………………………………………….. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of E.W. Jackson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ralph Northam?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q6 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Republican E.W. Jackson and Democrat Ralph
Northam. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
E.W. Jackson………………………………………….. 35%
Ralph Northam………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Obenshain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Herring?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q9 The candidates for Attorney General are
Republican Mark Obenshain and Democrat
Mark Herring. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Mark Obenshain ……………………………………… 36%
Mark Herring…………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q10 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2012?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 3%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 18%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
