Public Policy Polling

Hagan, Landrieu gun votes could help in 2014

PPP's newest round of polling finds that Kay Hagan and Mary Landrieu helped their cause for reelection with their recent votes in support of background checks for gun sales. More than 70% of voters in each of their states support such checks, and their constituents say they're more likely to vote for them next year because of their votes.

In Louisiana 72% of voters say they favor background checks to only 20% who are opposed. There is strong bipartisan backing with Democrats (81/13), independents (73/20), and Republicans (61/29) all expressing at least 2:1 support. 45% of voters in the state say they're now more likely to support Landrieu for reelection because she voted for background checks, compared to only 25% who say they're now less likely to vote for her. Landrieu has also seen a 6 point improvement in her net approval rating from the last time we polled the state in February, from +2 then at 47/45 to now +8 at 49/41.

It's a similar story in North Carolina. There 73% of voters support background checks with only 22% opposed. Again there is a strong consensus across party lines with more than 60% of Democrats (86/11), independents (67/28), and Republicans (61/34) all supporting them.  52% of voters say they're more inclined to reelect Hagan next year because she voted for background checks, while only 26% of voters say they will be less likely to support her because of it.

Clinton tied or ahead against GOP candidates in Louisiana

Raleigh, N.C. – Louisiana was not on anyone’s list of battleground states in 2012, but it might be in 2016 if Hillary Clinton runs for president, according to PPP’s latest poll.

Clinton is tied with Paul Ryan at 46%, and she leads Marco Rubio 46/43 and Bobby Jindal 48/45. 66% of voters in his home state do not think Jindal should run for president in 2016. The state’s voters have a narrowly favorable opinion of Clinton, 46% to 44%.

These results are within the margin of error, but they are indicative of Clinton’s unmatched appeal to moderate voters. 67% of moderates have a favorable view of Clinton to 25% unfavorable. Even 23% of somewhat conservative voters view her favorably, and these numbers hold up in match-ups against each of the GOP candidates.

Louisiana Miscellany

-Louisiana could have a fun race for Governor in 2015. New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu is seen pretty positively statewide, with 49% of voters rating him favorably to 26% with an unfavorable opinion. In a hypothetical contest with Senator David Vitter, who has a 46/38 approval rating, the two would be tied at 44%. Landrieu would have a slight edge over Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne at 44-42. If Landrieu decided to run it appears that it would be a competitive race.

-Louisiana mirrors what we find in most southern states when it comes to legal rights for same sex couples- its voters oppose gay marriage but would support civil unions. Only 29% of voters in the state think same sex marriage should be legal to 59% who believe it should be illegal. But 54% of voters at least support civil unions to only 41% who think there should be no recognition at all for gay couples.

-59% of voters in the state think that the Saints' bounty program was inappropriate...but 60% also think that the NFL's punishment of the franchise was too strict. Sean Payton's image hasn't suffered any damage from the whole scandal- 74% of people in Louisiana see him positively to 6% with a negative opinion. Drew Brees is one of the most popular people PPP's ever polled on anywhere- 86% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to just 4% with an unfavorable one. One person not doing too well there is Roger Goodell- he has a 17/42 favorability spread.

Jindal popularity plummets, Landrieu leads Republicans for re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP last polled Louisiana in 2010, Bobby Jindal was one of the most popular Governors in the country. 58% of voters approved of the job he was doing to just 34% who disapproved. Over the last two and a half years though there's been a massive downward shift in Jindal's popularity, and he is now one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Just 37% of voters now think he's doing a good job to 57% who are unhappy with him.

The decline in Jindal's popularity cuts across party lines. Where he was at 81/13 with Republicans in August 2010, now it's 59/35. Where he was at 67/22 with independents back then, now he's at 41/54. And what was a higher than normal amount of crossover support from Democrats at 33/58 is now 15/78. There was a time when Jindal probably would have been seen as a slam dunk candidate for Republicans against Mary Landrieu in 2014. But now he actually trails Landrieu 49/41 in a hypothetical match up.

Landrieu leads potential foes for reelection

When PPP last polled Louisiana in 2010, Bobby Jindal was one of the most popular Governors in the country. 58% of voters approved of the job he was doing to just 34% who disapproved. Over the last two and a half years though there's been a massive downward shift in Jindal's popularity, and he is now one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Just 37% of voters now think he's doing a good job to 57% who are unhappy with him.

The decline in Jindal's popularity cuts across party lines. Where he was at 81/13 with Republicans in August 2010, now it's 59/35. Where he was at 67/22 with independents back then, now he's at 41/54. And what was a higher than normal amount of crossover support from Democrats at 33/58 is now 15/78.

There was a time when Jindal probably would have been seen as a slam dunk candidate for Republicans against Mary Landrieu in 2014. But now he actually trails Landrieu 49/41 in a hypothetical match up.

Trailing Landrieu hardly puts Jindal alone among Louisiana Republicans. She leads all seven we tested against her, by margins ranging from 3 to 12 points. Landrieu has a narrowly positive approval rating with 47% of voters giving her good marks to 45% who disapprove. That's up from 41/53 in August of 2010...her numbers are seeing some recovery from their post Obamacare decline.

The Republican who comes closest to Landrieu is Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne, who trails just 46/43. Dardenne has a 41/23 favorability rating statewide and is seen positively by both Democrats (43/22) and Republicans (42/25).

Seattle tops popularity list of U.S. cities

Raleigh, N.C. – The Pacific Northwest has a good reputation nationwide--the two most popular of the 21 prominent cities we asked about in our national poll last weekend are Seattle and Portland, OR.  57% of American voters see Seattle favorably and only 14% unfavorably, edging out Portland (52-12) by three points on the margin.

The most unpopular is Detroit, which only 22% see positively and 49% negatively.  Americans have net-negative impressions of only two other of these cities: Oakland, CA (21-39) and Los Angeles (33-40).

Between the pack are Boston (52-17), Atlanta (51-19), Phoenix (49-18), Dallas (48-21), New York (49-23), New Orleans (47-24), Houston (45-22), Salt Lake City (43-20), Philadelphia (42-22), San Francisco (48-29), Baltimore (37-24), Las Vegas (43-33), Chicago (42-33), Cleveland (32-25), Washington, D.C. (44-39), and Miami (36-33).

American cities favorability poll

The Pacific Northwest has a good reputation nationwide--the two most popular of the 21 prominent cities we asked about in our national poll last weekend are Seattle and Portland, OR.  57% of American voters see Seattle favorably and only 14% unfavorably, edging out Portland (52-12) by three points on the margin.

The most unpopular is Detroit, which only 22% see positively and 49% negatively.  Americans have net-negative impressions of only two other of these cities, and both are in California: Oakland (21-39) and Los Angeles (33-40).  In February, PPP found California to be the least popular state in the union.  It does have the 11th most popular city, though: San Francisco (48-29).

Between the pack are Boston (52-17), Atlanta (51-19), Phoenix (49-18), Dallas (48-21), New York (49-23), New Orleans (47-24), Houston (45-22), Salt Lake City (43-20), Philadelphia (42-22), Baltimore (37-24), Las Vegas (43-33), Chicago (42-33), Cleveland (32-25), Washington, D.C. (44-39), and Miami (36-33).

Santorum leads by 14 in Louisiana

Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Santorum is headed for a commanding win in Louisiana on Saturday. We find him with 42% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Ron Paul, and 2% for Buddy Roemer.

It's interesting to look at these numbers in the context of last week's results in Alabama and Mississippi. Mitt Romney averaged 30% in those two contests, and that's about where he is here. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich combined for 64% in those two contests, and they combine for a relatively similar 60% here. The big difference though is that conservative voters appears to be abandoning Gingrich for Santorum now, and that's why Louisiana is likely to be much more lopsided than either of last week's contests were. If Gingrich was completely out of the race Santorum would have a 22 point lead, 53-31, over Romney here with Paul at 11%.

Santorum leads in LA and other notes...

Rick Santorum is headed for a commanding win in Louisiana on Saturday. We find him with 42% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Ron Paul, and 2% for Buddy Roemer.

It's interesting to look at these numbers in the context of last week's results in Alabama and Mississippi. Mitt Romney averaged 30% in those two contests, and that's about where he is here. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich combined for 64% in those two contests, and they combine for a relatively similar 60% here. The big difference though is that conservative voters appears to be abandoning Gingrich for Santorum now, and that's why Louisiana is likely to be much more lopsided than either of last week's contests were. If Gingrich was completely out of the race Santorum would have a 22 point lead, 53-31, over Romney here with Paul at 11%

Santorum's entire lead in Louisiana is coming with the furthest right factions of the Republican Party. He leads Romney 50-23 with 'very conservative' voters, 44-22 with Tea Partiers, and 51-23 with Evangelicals. Santorum also appears to have the late momentum on his side. Among those who've decided who to vote for in the last few days he's at 47% to just 25% for Romney. That suggests he could end up winning by an ever wider margin than he has in this poll.

Romney's up only 37-33 in urban areas, which have been one of his strong suits. He's running slightly behind Santorum, 38-29 in suburban areas.  And he's getting absolutely crushed, 50-23, in rural areas. Southern Republicans still aren't warming up to Romney. His 49/41 favorability rating runs far behind both Santorum (70/22) and Gingrich (59/30).

Other notes from our Louisiana poll:

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).