Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Louisiana poll shows yet another tight Senate race, as Mary Landrieu seeks reelection this fall, along with a 2015 Governor’s race that could go either way depending on who ends up running.
In the Senate primary, Landrieu picks up 44% of the vote, short of the 50% threshold to avoid a run-off. Bill Cassidy is the leading vote getter among Republicans with 27%, followed by Rob Maness at 8% and Paul Hollis at 5%. Maness and Hollis are both hampered by voters’ lack of opinion on them. 64% of voters have no opinion on Hollis and 65% for Maness. All three Republican candidates have negative favorability ratings, including Cassidy with 28% favorable and 36% unfavorable, Hollis with 12/23, and Maness with 14/21.
In the most likely run-off between Landrieu and Cassidy, voters are split evenly with both picking up 47%. Landrieu, whose approval rating is also negative (42% approval/52% disapproval), trails Cassidy among independents by a 13-point margin (38/51). Landrieu leads among women (50/42) and younger voters by a large margin (61/29). Obama’s approval rating does not help her at all, as only 39% approve of his performance to 56% who disapprove.
“Our last couple Louisiana polls have found the candidates within a point of each other,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big question is whether Mary Landrieu has much room to grow if she doesn’t get to 50% in November.”
David Vitter leads all of his match-ups in potential 2015 Governor races, thanks in part to voters’ positive view of his job performance (48% approve/35% disapprove) and their lack of knowledge on other potential candidates. Vitter leads John Bel Edwards with 52% to 30%, Mitch Landrieu 48/44, and fellow Republican Jay Dardenne 40/34. Mitch Landrieu appears to be the strongest potential Democrat early in this race. Landrieu, who boasts both name recognition and a positive favorability rating (48% favorable, 30% unfavorable), is tied with Dardenne at 43%. In the final potential match-up, Dardenne leads John Bel Edwards 49% to 26%.
PPP surveyed 664 registered voters from June 26th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.8%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mary
Landrieu’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .52%
Not sure …………….. . 6%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Cassidy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Hollis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Maness?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican Bill Cassidy, Republican Paul
Hollis, Democrat Mary Landrieu, and
Republican Rob Maness, who would you vote
for?
Bill Cassidy …………………………………………….. 27%
Paul Hollis………………………………………………. 5%
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 44%
Rob Maness……………………………………………. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 Who would you support in a runoff election
between Republican Bill Cassidy and
Democrat Mary Landrieu?
Bill Cassidy …………………………………………….. 47%
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
David Vitter’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .48%
Disapprove…………. .35%
Not sure …………….. .17%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jay Dardenne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitch Landrieu?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Bel Edwards?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican David Vitter and Democrat John
Bel Edwards, who would you vote for?
David Vitter …………………………………………….. 52%
John Bel Edwards……………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican Jay Dardenne and Democrat John
Bel Edwards, who would you vote for?
Jay Dardenne …………………………………………. 49%
John Bel Edwards……………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican David Vitter and Democrat Mitch
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
David Vitter …………………………………………….. 48%
Mitch Landrieu ………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican Jay Dardenne and Democrat Mitch
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
Jay Dardenne …………………………………………. 43%
Mitch Landrieu ………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q16 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican Jay Dardenne and Republican
David Vitter, who would you vote for?
Jay Dardenne …………………………………………. 34%
David Vitter …………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q17 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 7%
Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 20%
Q21 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 28%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q23 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
