Raleigh, N.C. –PPP’s newest poll finds that Senator Mary Landrieu would be in a virtual dead heat with Republican challenger Bill Cassidy in a hypothetical November matchup. Landrieu leads Cassidy 45-44, down from her 48-41 lead when we last polled in October. Landrieu fares better against other potential Republican challengers: she leads Paul Hollis 48-42 and Rob Maness 47-42. Cassidy, however, seems to be well ahead of his fellow Republicans: when asked to choose between Landrieu, Cassidy, Hollis, and Maness, 25% of voters supported Cassidy, as compared with 5% who supported Hollis and 3% who supported Maness.
The tight race seems to be tied to a worse approval rating for Landrieu: only 37% of voters approve of the job she’s doing in the Senate, as compared to 52% who disapprove. This approval rating has dropped substantially from our August poll, where we found that voters approved of her by a 46-43 margin. Her numbers have remained above water with independents, who approve of her by a 42-38 margin. Cassidy, on the other hand, has only a middling favorability with Louisiana voters—24% have a favorable opinion of him as compared to 26% who have an unfavorable opinion. His favorability ratings are markedly better than Hollis (11/22) and Maness (11/19) though.
As for the Affordable Care Act, Louisiana voters still largely disapprove of it (33/53), and 60% think that the implementation has been unsuccessful.
“The Louisiana Senate race is a sheer toss up now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The difficulties with the launch of Obamacare seem to have really taken a toll on Mary Landrieu’s standing.”
There is one Republican who leads Mary Landrieu in a hypothetical November matchup: controversial Duck Dynasty star Phil Robertson. He leads Landrieu 46-42, with the support of 78% of Republicans. Aside from his Senate chances, Robertson has even more to smile about: Louisianans like both his show and Mr. Robertson himself. Both have positive net favorability across parties, with voters overall finding Duck Dynasty favorable 53/22 and Robertson favorable 45/19.
PPP surveyed 635 Louisiana voters from February 6th to 9th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.9%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mary
Landrieu’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .37%
Disapprove…………. .52%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Cassidy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Hollis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Maness?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Bill Cassidy, Republican Paul
Hollis, Democrat Mary Landrieu, and
Republican Rob Maness, who would you vote
for?
Bill Cassidy …………………………………………….. 25%
Paul Hollis………………………………………………. 5%
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 43%
Rob Maness……………………………………………. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were just
Republican Bill Cassidy and Democrat Mary
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
Bill Cassidy …………………………………………….. 44%
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were just
Republican Paul Hollis and Democrat Mary
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
Paul Hollis………………………………………………. 42%
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were just
Republican Rob Maness and Democrat Mary
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
Rob Maness……………………………………………. 42%
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 8%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 24%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 18%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Duck Dynasty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Robertson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican Bill Cassidy, Republican Paul
Hollis, Democrat Mary Landrieu, Republican
Rob Maness, and Republican Phil Robertson,
who would you vote for?
Bill Cassidy …………………………………………….. 21%
Paul Hollis………………………………………………. 5%
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 40%
Rob Maness……………………………………………. 4%
Phil Robertson ………………………………………… 13%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate this fall were just
Democrat Mary Landrieu and Republican Phil
Robertson, who would you vote for?
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 42%
Phil Robertson ………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q16 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 28%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q22 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
