Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Barrett top choice of Dems in Wisconsin recall race

Raleigh, N.C. – Tom Barrett would be the front runner if he decides to seek the Democratic nomination for Governor of Wisconsin in the upcoming recall election. He leads Kathleen Falk 46-27 and David Obey 42-30 in potential head to heads. He also gets 26% to 22% for Falk, 21% for Obey, and 11% for Tim Cullen in a hypothetical four way contest.

If Barrett doesn't end up throwing his hat in the ring, it looks like Obey would have a better chance at the nomination than Falk as well. He leads her 43-28 in a head to head contest.

Barrett favorite of Wisconsin Dems

Tom Barrett would be the front runner if he decides to seek the Democratic nomination for Governor of Wisconsin in the upcoming recall election. He leads Kathleen Falk 46-27 and David Obey 42-30 in potential head to heads. He also gets 26% to 22% for Falk, 21% for Obey, and 11% for Tim Cullen in a hypothetical four way contest.

If Barrett doesn't end up throwing his hat in the ring, it looks like Obey would have a better chance at the nomination than Falk as well. He leads her 43-28 in a head to head contest.

Barrett has the best favorability numbers of the candidates at a +30 spread (53/23). He's followed by Obey at +20 (43/23), Falk at +8 (36/28), and Cullen at +6 (25/19).

Barrett may have greater name recognition than Falk, but that's not the reason for his early advantage. Among likely primary voters with an opinion about Falk, whether it's positive or negative, Barrett's lead remains pretty much unchanged at 47-33.

There's a great deal of interest in the potential primary beyond the Democratic base.  We find that 30% of likely voters for it are independents and 11% are even Republicans.  Core Democrats prefer Barrett over Falk 53-25, Barrett over Obey 44-32, and Obey over Falk 48-27. In the four way contest 31% say they'd support Barrett to 25% for Obey with Falk slipping into third at 18% and Cullen at 9%.

Full results here

Looking at the 2012 electoral map

Mitt Romney's victory in Iowa last night may not have been very impressive, but it still increases the chances he will emerge as the Republican nominee in the end and that makes it worth taking a first look at the 2012 electoral map.

Over the course of 2011 PPP did at least 2 polls in 15 major swing states.  Here's how the Obama/Romney numbers averaged out, from the places where Obama's strongest to where he's weakest:

State	Our Poll Average	# of Polls
New Mexico	Obama +13	3
Wisconsin	Obama +8	4
Iowa	Obama +7	5
Michigan	Obama +6	2
Virginia	Obama +5	3
Colorado	Obama +5	3
Ohio	Obama +3	4
North Carolina	Obama +2	12
Florida	Obama +2	4
Pennsylvania	Obama +1	4
Nevada	Tie	4
New Hampshire	Romney +1	2
Missouri	Romney +2	3
Arizona	Romney +6	3
Montana	Romney +9	2

Note: I'm excluding 2 polls from these averages: a Virginia poll right after the killing of Osama bin Laden and an Ohio poll conducted of likely voters for the November referendum election. The referendum drew out a likely voter pool that's probably different from who will come out this November and polls taken right after the bin Laden killing are not a realistic gauge of where Obama stands right now.

If you go strictly by the averages Obama's in pretty good shape for reelection. Ceding Indiana (which we can't poll) to Romney, Obama gets 337 electoral votes to 195 for Romney with the 6 for Nevada on the table.

Here's the thing though: our polls and probably everyone's polls are actually worse for Obama than they look right now.  That's because a disproportionate number of the undecideds in Obama/Romney polling are Republicans. Romney's not their first choice for the nomination so they're being stubborn and saying they're undecided for the general, even though it's pretty much a certainty that they'll end up voting for the GOP nominee in the end. 

Romney's Fading Popularity

You want to know the biggest reason Mitt Romney hasn't surged at any point in the Republican Presidential race this year? It's because the more GOP primary voters across the country have been exposed to him, the less they've liked him.

There are 13 places PPP has polled the Republican race in October or November where it also did a poll sometime between January and March.  In those places Romney's net favorability has dropped by an average of 15 points over the course of the year.

On average Romney's favorability with primary voters was 54/25 in these 13 places at the begininng of the year. Now it's only 50/35. His problem is partially that his positives have gone down but more than that it's that as his name recognition has increased, most folks moving off the fence have gone into the negative column.

What's most remarkable about the decline in Romney's popularity is how uniform it's been- he's less popular now than he was at the start of the year in all 13 places where there are polls to compare. And in 11 out of the 13 places that decline in his net favorability has been at least 14 points- the only places with more modest declines are Maine and North Carolina.

This is why as Donald Trump and Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry and Herman Cain have risen and fallen Romney hasn't seen any increase in his support- GOP voters just simply aren't warming up to him at all- in fact they're going in the other direction.

Here's the full data:

State	Romney in Jan/Feb/Mar	Romney in Oct/Nov	Shift
West Virginia	56/18 (+38)	42/27 (+15)	-23
Pennsylvania	52/25 (+27)	46/39 (+7)	-20
Arizona	62/22 (+40)	56/34 (+22)	-18
Ohio	53/26 (+27)	47/37 (+10)	-17
Nebraska	51/23 (+28)	45/34 (+11)	-17
Iowa	57/26 (+31)	51/36 (+15)	-16
Nevada	70/18 (+52)	63/27 (+36)	-16
Mississippi	48/36 (+12)	40/44 (-4)	-16
National	52/28 (+24)	48/39 (+9)	-15
California	59/22 (+37)	55/33 (+22)	-15
Wisconsin	49/25 (+24)	47/37 (+10)	-14
Maine	47/31 (+16)	51/37 (+14)	-2
North Carolina	50/26 (+24)	53/30 (+23)	-1

Favre who? Rodgers is king of Wisconsin

Raleigh, N.C. – Now that he is in retirement, this time presumably for good, Wisconsinites seem to be forgiving Brett Favre for his decision to come out of his previous retirement first for the New York Jets and then for the Green Bay Packers’ rival Minnesota Vikings.  In August, only a third of the state’s voters viewed Favre favorably, and 54% unfavorably, terrible numbers for a sports icon.  That has now recovered significantly, but he is still under water, at 41-45.  Men actually now view him favorably (47-41), but women still negatively (35-48) after the sexting scandal.

Rodgers takes the crown

The last part of our October Wisconsin poll focuses on sports issues in the state:

-Aaron Rodgers is the most popular person PPP has ever polled on, anywhere, sports, politics, you name it. An amazing 89% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him, to only 4% with an unfavorable one. Wisconsin voters are already ready to declare him the best Quarterback in Packers history- 36% grant him that distinction to 29% for Brett Favre, 23% for Bart Starr, and 2% for Arnie Herber.

Part of Rodgers winning that honor has to do with his own appeal, but it's also because folks in Wisconsin have soured on Favre- only 41% have a favorable opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. Those numbers will surely recover with time but for now Favre's popularity in the state is not what it once was.

Rodgers' numbers beg the question- who, anywhere, could do better than an 89/4 favorability rating? We'll take suggestions for our national poll next week on who could beat 89/4.

-2011 may have been the Milwaukee Brewers' best season in decades but that still doesn't put them anywhere close to matching the Packers' popularity in the state  70% of voters say the Packers are their favorite of the state's pro teams to 13% for the Brewers and 3% for the Bucks.  The Wisconsin Badgers can't hold a candle to the Packers either- 61% say they care more about the state's NFL team to only 18% who go with their major college football team.

WI prefers Occupy to Tea Party

Raleigh, N.C. – Much like nationally and in the states where PPP has asked about the movement so far, Badger State voters are not thrilled about Occupy Wall Street, but they do see it better than the Tea Party movement.  Here, 39% support O.W.S.’s goals, and 38% oppose them, compared to 40-47 for the Tea Party.  Asked of which group they have a higher opinion, voters side narrowly with Occupy, 42-40.  The Democratic slant of the state’s electorate makes a difference here, as Republicans more emphatically prefer the Tea Party (81%) than Democrats O.W.S. (75%), while independents split 39-38 for the Tea Party.

Wisconsin Miscellany

-Paul Ryan's favorability numbers have seen some recovery over the last few months as he's receded a little bit from the national spotlight. 40% of Wisconsin voters now express a favorable opinion of him to 35% with a negative one. That represents a 10 point improvement on the margin from May when he was at 41/46.  His numbers are better across the party spectrum, but he remains extremely polarizing with Republicans rating him favorably 73/4, and Democrats rating him unfavorably 7/64. A 44/33 standing with independents helps to put him on positive ground overall.

I'm not sure what this improvement in his numbers says for Ryan's political future.  Certainly a politician with these kinds of favorability ratings can win statewide office in Wisconsin, but it doesn't bode well for Ryan moving forward if his image is going to tank any time he's in the spotlight.