Raleigh, N.C. – Among likely
Republican primary voters, Paul Ryan leads a nine-way contest with 27% of the
vote, followed by Scott Walker with 14% and Chris Christie with 12%. With
Walker taken out of the race, a full third of voters choose Ryan, followed by
Christie with 14%, then Jeb Bush and Rand Paul.
In a match-up between Ryan and Walker, Ryan led with 47% to Walker’s 38%.
Voters who identified as very or somewhat conservative preferred Ryan in the
match-up, and one-third of moderates were not sure which of the two they’d
choose.
Ryan has more support among women with 30% compared to 23% of men. The next most
popular choice for men is Christie, but for women it is Walker.
Among all voters polled, Sen. Ron Johnson’s approval rating this weekend was
38-38, slightly improved from his 37-41 when we last polled in February. Against
Russ Feingold, he trails by seven points, a slightly smaller gap than his
10-point deficit seven months ago. Against Ron Kind, Johnson leads by a margin
of three points. Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s approval rating dropped from 45-40 in
February to 41-42 this weekend. Jim Doyle’s favorability was 33-43.
In match-ups, Hillary Clinton beat Bush, Christie, Ted Cruz, Paul, and Walker,
but she tied with Ryan. In February, Clinton beat Ryan by an eight-point
margin. Clinton beat Walker by five points this weekend.
“Paul Ryan has more support for President with Wisconsin Republicans than
Scott Walker,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s more
competitive with Hillary Clinton in a general election contest as well.”
Aaron Rodgers’s favorability was 75-7. Brett Favre’s was 50-28. 15% of
voters thought favorably of Ryan Braun, and 6% thought favorably of Bret
Bielema. 73% weren’t sure.
PPP surveyed 1,180 Wisconsin
voters, including 449 usual Democratic and 447 usual Republican primary voters, between September 13-16, 2013. The
margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 2.9% and +/- 4.6% for the Democratic
and GOP portions. This poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or
political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ron
Johnson’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q2 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Russ
Feingold, who would you vote for?
Ron Johnson…………………………………………… 42%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Ron
Kind, who would you vote for?
Ron Johnson…………………………………………… 43%
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Tammy Baldwin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bret Bielema?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ryan Braun?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Aaron Rodgers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 75%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brett Favre?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Doyle?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q12 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q13 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q14 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q15 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Scott
Walker, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q16 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 41%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 8%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 12%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 9%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 8%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 10%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 27%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 14%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 5%
Q2 If Scott Walker didn’t run for President in 2016,
and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Chris
Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul,
Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum,
who would you most like to see as the GOP
candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 11%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 14%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 10%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 11%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 9%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 33%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 5%
Q3 If Paul Ryan didn’t run for President in 2016,
but Scott Walker did, and the candidates were
Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby
Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick
Santorum, and Scott Walker, who would you
most like to see as the GOP candidate for
President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 11%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 13%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 10%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 2%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 10%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 9%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 37%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 3%
Q4 Between Paul Ryan and Scott Walker, who
would you rather see as the Republican
candidate for President in 2016?
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 47%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 34%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 62%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q8 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Russ Feingold,
Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Mark
Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you
most like to see as the Democratic candidate
for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 11%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 3%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 2%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 20%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 0%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 0%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 32%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 8%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 1%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 62%
Man……………………………………………………….. 38%
Q4 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 59%
Republican……………………………………………… 4%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 37%
Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
