Raleigh, N.C. – Wisconsin Republicans are more excited about the prospect of Paul Ryan running for President in 2016 than Scott Walker…but they both lag behind Hillary Clinton even in their home state.
Ryan leads the GOP Presidential field in Wisconsin with 25% to 21% for Walker, 8% each for Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, and Rand Paul, 7% for Ted Cruz, 6% for Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, and 3% for Bobby Jindal. Asked one on one who they’d prefer out of their state’s potential homegrown candidates, Republicans in the state pick Ryan 52/35. And while GOP voters pretty firmly want Ryan to run in 2016- 55% say he should go for it to 26% who dissent- they’re much more divided about Walker with 43% saying he should run and 42% that he should not.
When it comes to the general election though Hillary Clinton leads all comers. Ryan comes closest at 50/45, with Walker not far behind at 51/44. All of the other potential Republican hopefuls trail Clinton by double digits- it’s 50/39 against both Bush and Paul, 50/38 against Huckabee, and 49/36 against Christie. The overall electorate doesn’t think either Ryan (33% yes, 52% no) or Walker (29% yes, 61% no) should run for President.
“It speaks to the strength of Hillary Clinton that she leads top potential Republican Presidential candidates like Paul Ryan and Scott Walker even in their home state,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
For the first time PPP finds a plurality of voters in the state in support of gay marriage- 47% support it to 45% who are opposed. Those numbers represent a 13 point net increase in support from 2011, when we found only 39% there supported gay marriage with 50% against it. Showing the direction public opinion is headed in on the issue, 65% of voters under 30 support it to only 35% who are opposed. When you broaden the discussion to include civil unions 71% of voters in the state, including 55% of Republicans, support some form of legal recognition for same sex couples, to only 26% completely opposed.
PPP surveyed 1,144 registered voters, including 579 Democratic primary voters and 522 Republican primary voters, from April 17th to 20th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 2.9%, for the Democrats it’s +/-4.1%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-4.3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Scott
Walker, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 Do you think Paul Ryan should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should ………………………………………. 33%
Think he should not …………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 Do you think Scott Walker should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should ………………………………………. 29%
Think he should not …………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Wisconsin, or not?
Think it should be…………………………………….. 47%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..43%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………28%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q12 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 55%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q13 Do you support or oppose the Paycheck
Fairness Act, which seeks to address the issue
of male-female income disparity?
Support ………………………………………………….. 55%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q14 Do you agree or disagree with the following
statement? ‘Women and men should earn
equal pay for equal work.’
Agree …………………………………………………….. 92%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q15 Wisconsin is eligible to receive new federal
funding to pay for health care through the
Medicaid program. Do you think the Wisconsin
state government should accept this federal
funding to expand Medicaid coverage, or not?
Think it should…………………………………………. 61%
Think it should not……………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q16 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………….. .43%
Disapprove…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q17 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful…… .12%
Somewhat
successful ……………32%
Somewhat
unsuccessful ………..17%
Very unsuccessful.. .33%
Not sure …………….. . 7%
Q18 When it comes to college basketball, do you
consider yourself to be a fan of Marquette,
Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Wisconsin-Green Bay,
or Wisconsin?
Marquette……………………………………………….. 7%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee ………………………………. 6%
Wisconsin-Green Bay ………………………………. 8%
Wisconsin ………………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q19 (Q19-20 asked only of Marquette fans) Do you
have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of
former coach Buzz Williams?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q20 Do you approve or disapprove of the hiring of
Steve Wojciechowski as basketball coach?
Approve …………….. .56%
Disapprove…………. . 2%
Not sure …………….. .42%
Q21 (Asked only of Wisconsin fans:) Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Bo Ryan is
doing as basketball coach?
Approve …………….. .82%
Disapprove…………. . 3%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q22 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago
Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers,
Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, New
York Yankees, or some other team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 2%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 2%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 5%
White Sox ………………………………………………. 1%
Tigers…………………………………………………….. 2%
Brewers …………………………………………………. 63%
Twins……………………………………………………… 4%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 1%
Some other team / Don’t have a favorite……… 20%
Q23 (Asked only of Brewers fans:) What do you
think the outcome of the 2014 season will be
for the Brewers? Do you think they will win the
World Series, win the National League pennant
but not the World Series, make the playoffs but
not win the pennant, or not make the playoffs
at all?
Win the World Series ……………………………….. 12%
Win the pennant but not the World Series …… 17%
Make the playoffs but not win the pennant…… 51%
Not make the playoffs at all……………………….. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q24 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ryan Braun?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q25 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 8%
Q26 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q28 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 35%
Q29 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q30 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q31 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 6%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 8%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 7%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 8%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 8%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 6%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 25%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 21%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 8%
Q2 Between Paul Ryan and Scott Walker, who
would you rather see as the Republican
candidate for President in 2016?
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 52%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you think Paul Ryan should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should ………………………………………. 55%
Think he should not …………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you think Scott Walker should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should ………………………………………. 43%
Think he should not …………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 42%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 34%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Russ Feingold,
Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Mark
Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you
most like to see as the Democratic candidate
for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 8%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 1%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 57%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 1%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 19%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 0%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 5%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 8%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 38%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 7%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
