Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Of 17 states polled, US voters most divided on TX, least on PA

Raleigh, N.C. – In its latest national poll, in the first of a three-part series, PPP asked American voters how they feel about 17 different states.  Of this first bunch, Texas is the most polarizing—it has both the highest favorability and highest unfavorability rating.  Pennsylvania matches Texas in favor and has much less disfavor, making it the most popular.  The least liked are Illinois and Mississippi, two of only three (along with Utah) which more voters see negatively than positively.

Polling the States

Over the next 3 months PPP will be polling the favorability of all 50 states as part of its national surveys, in order to determine the most popular and least popular ones in the country.  We started off this month with the first 17.  Here's how they stack up from best net favorability to worst:

State	Favorability	Spread
Pennsylvania	40/11	+29
Indiana	31/12	+19
Idaho	30/11	+19
Arizona	39/22	+17
Maryland	31/15	+16
New Mexico	30/15	+15
Georgia	31/20	+11
Minnesota	27/17	+10
Rhode Island	26/16	+10
Texas	40/31	+9
Massachusetts	35/27	+8
Arkansas	25/20	+5
Alabama	27/26	+1
Louisiana	24/24	Even
Utah	24/27	-3
Mississippi	22/28	-6
Illinois	19/29	-10

Herbert faces a tough race if Matheson runs for governor

Raleigh, N.C. – For the Democrats to compete in a statewide race in Utah, they would need an extraordinarily popular candidate, and they could have it in Congressman Jim Matheson. As is true for Orrin Hatch’s Senate seat, Republicans will have no trouble holding onto the governorship in Utah unless Matheson chooses to run. 

Incumbent Governor Gary Herbert is looking quite strong, with a 51-32 approval rating. While independents do not like him, giving him a 34-44 rating, Herbert garners a significant amount of crossover support, earning 27% approval among Democrats, and holds a 71-14 rating among Republicans. Herbert is popular among fellow Mormons, garnering a 62-20 rating with them, compared to only a 25-59 rating among non-Mormons. Luckily for Herbert, Mormons make up 70% of the state.

Herbert popular, but in a close race with Matheson

On the face of it, Governor Gary Herbert couldn’t be safer for re-election. Herbert has a strong 51-32 approval rating and does well among Republican, 71-14, indicating he is not especially vulnerable to a primary challenge. Herbert even garners a significant amount of crossover support with 27% of Democrats approving compared to 58% who disapprove. Herbert’s approval among independents, 34-44, leaves much to be desired. However, in Utah this isn’t a big problem since half the state is Republican. While Herbert has an even lower approval among non-Mormons, 25-59, than his approval among Democrats, he more than makes up for it with a strong 62-20 approval rating with the Mormon majority in Utah.

Utah opposes same-sex marriage, but not all recognition

Raleigh, N.C. – By more than a 2-1 margin, Utah voters oppose legal same-sex marriage. 66% think it should be illegal, while only 27% think it should be legal. However, even in Utah, a 42-39 plurality of voters 18-29 support legal same-sex marriage. There is a stark divide between Mormons and non-Mormons on the issue. Mormons oppose legal same-sex marriage 81-13, while those of another religion support it 63-29. When civil unions are included as an option, those opposing all recognition are in the minority with 23% favoring marriage, 37% civil unions, and 39% opposing all recognition.

Utah firmly against same-sex marriage, but not civil unions

With Utah, there’s no question voters oppose same-sex marriage. After all, it’s one of the reddest states in the country with a population that’s 70% Mormon. PPP confirms this as only 27% of Utah voters think that same-sex marriage should be legal compared to 66% who think it should be illegal. Republicans in Utah, who make up 50% of the state, are united 89-6 against legal same-sex marriage, while Democrats only support it 66-29. Unlike other states, independents also oppose legal same-sex marriage by a large margin, 52-36. This is likely due to the fierce opposition to same-sex marriage from Mormons. Mormons oppose same sex marriage 83-13, while non-Mormons come out strong for same-sex marriage rights by a 63-29 margin. Even in Utah, same-sex marriage has plurality support among the youth with those 18-29 in favor of legal same sex marriage 42-39.

Obama closer in Utah against non-Mormon Republicans

Raleigh, N.C. – Despite losing Utah to John McCain by 28 points, President Obama has a chance to make the race much more competitive in 2012—that is, if the Republicans nominate someone who is not a Mormon.  Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman both earn 63% of the vote against the president—14 to 20 points higher than any of the other four potential nominees.  Against Huntsman, Obama gets only 23% of the vote, and 31% against Romney.  But he trails Michele Bachmann by half his 2008 loss margin, 49-35, and is even closer against Tim Pawlenty, 45-34.  He also lags Herman Cain only 43-36, and essentially ties Sarah Palin, 43-41.

Breaking News: Obama will not win Utah in 2012

Barack Obama is not going to win Utah next year. His approval rating is 32% with 62% of voters disapproving of him. But now that we have that out of the way there was actually some pretty interesting stuff in our Utah President poll:

-Even though our numbers yesterday showed Mitt Romney would destroy Jon Huntsman in a Republican primary in the state, Huntsman is actually much stronger when tested against Obama in the state. He leads Obama by 40 points at 63-23, compared to a 32 point advantage for Romney against Obama at 63-31. The reason Huntsman does so much better in the general is that he is beloved by Democrats (69/25 favorability) and independents (61/29). He gets 28% of the Democratic vote against Obama, compared to 19% for Romney. And he wins independents by a 39 point margin against the President, compared to 8 points for Romney.