Raleigh, N.C. – While some long-serving Republican senators like Olympia Snowe are in theoretical trouble with their base, Orrin Hatch is in actual hot water against an actual opponent who seems likely to make a bid for the nomination at next year’s convention. Though they will not get to actually vote in a primary, Utah Republicans want Rep. Jason Chaffetz to carry their banner in the general election next fall, rather than Hatch.
Against a generic “more conservative challenger,” Hatch is actually narrowly preferred, 45-44, and only 30% of Republican primary voters believe him to be too liberal, while half see his views as about right. The problem for Hatch is the far right, as it is for just about any establishment figure. Here, those who say they are very conservative make up 38% of the electorate, not much less than the 44% who claim to be somewhat conservative. But while 63% of the center-right plurality are satisfied with Hatch’s ideology, 51% of the rightwingers think him too far to the left, and only 41% find his stances acceptable. They go for the insurgent almost 2:1, 61-31.
Matched against Chaffetz, Hatch falls behind, 43-47, because his vulnerability on his right flank (Chaffetz wins, 59-29) is combined with slight weakness with the center-right. The somewhat conservative like Chaffetz just as much as Hatch, so while they go 49-37 for Hatch over the generic candidate, they prefer Chaffetz 47-43.
There is also bad news for former Governor Jon Huntsman in this poll. Fellow Mormon Mitt Romney, chair of the 2002 Salt Lake City games, wins 60 or 63% of the vote to Huntsman’s 10 or 12% in two multi-candidate variations of the presidential field, and Romney would beat Huntsman in a two-way contest, 82-14. Indeed, Utah Republicans have little care for their “favorite” son, seeing him negatively, 43-46. Romney is the most popular candidate, with an 83-13 favorability mark. This is one place where conservatives have no problem with Romney, though Michele Bachmann does place second with the furthest right voters, and Huntsman second with moderates.
PPP surveyed 406 usual Utah Republican primary voters from July 8th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 83%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Orrin
Hatch’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 60%
Disapprove………….. 28%
Not sure ……………… 12%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jason Chaffetz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q9 Do you think that Orrin Hatch is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 30%
Too conservative……………………………………… 11%
About right ……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 Would you rather that the Republican nominee
for Senate next year was Jason Chaffetz or
Orrin Hatch?
Jason Chaffetz…….. 47%
Orrin Hatch …………. 43%
Not sure ……………… 10%
Q11 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican nominee for Senate next year to be
Orrin Hatch or someone more conservative
than him?
Orrin Hatch …………. 45%
Someone more
conservative………… 44%
Not sure ……………… 11%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 3%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 10%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 5%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 1%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 63%
Q13 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 2%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 2%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 60%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 4%
Q14 If you had to choose just between Jon
Huntsman and Mitt Romney as the Republican
nominee, who would be your pick?
Jon Huntsman……… 14%
Mitt Romney………… 82%
Not sure ……………… 4%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 44%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
Q18 Are you a Mormon or another religion?
Mormon………………………………………………….. 86%
Another religion……………………………………….. 14%
